Home sales in Greater Vancouver are on a hot streak, and the professional association representing all the real estate boards in the province is bumping up its forecast for 2016, predicting escalating prices and a jump in the number of homes sold.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association forecasts unit sales in the Greater Vancouver region will increase 8.9% in 2016, from 43,145 homes sold in 2015 to 47,000 this year.

For B.C. as a whole, unit sales are forecast to increase 12.3% to 115,200 units, breaking the previous record of 106,310 units sold in 2005.

“Robust employment growth and a marked increase in migration from other provinces is buoying consumer confidence and housing demand in most regions of the province,” said BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir.

“Record housing demand has depleted inventories in many urban areas, and the resulting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed home prices considerably higher.”

The average sales price for homes in Greater Vancouver is expected to reach $1.125 million this year, up 24.6% from $902,801 in 2015. Across the province, the average price is forecast to increase 20.4% this year, from $636,600 last year to $766,600 in 2016.

This latest forecast is in sharp contrast to the BCREA’s previous release, in which it had predicted an 8.2% drop in unit sales across Greater Vancouver and a 6.2% decline across the province as a whole.

The BCREA had previously said home sales would fall because of a lack of supply. It now says a jump in new home construction is set to help meet demand.

“Waning inventories of newly completed and unoccupied units are being offset by a market increase in the number of homes under construction,” the BCREA said in a news release.

“Total housing starts in the province are forecast to climb 20% to 37,800 units this year, before edging back to 34,200 units in 2017.”

Source: Emma Crawford Hampel, Business in Vancouver
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/6/greater-vancouver-home-sales-and-prices-soar-2016-/

The insanity, it seems, is not over.

Despite ongoing warnings from the CMHC that the Vancouver housing prices are overvalued and have outpaced the economic fundamentals in the city, they keep climbing.

In the past year, the benchmark price for a detached home in the region — not just the City of Vancouver itself — has climbed 30.1 per cent, to $1.4-million, according to new numbers from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The “benchmark” price is a measure used by the board to describe what it calls a “typical property” in the market, taking into account bedrooms, lot size, and other factors, and is not an average or median price.

To put that in context, the median family income in the Vancouver metropolitan area is $73,390 — lower than the Canadian average, according to the latest census numbers available.

The highest benchmark price for a detached home is still Vancouver’s west side, at $3.2-million, which is up 172 per cent over ten years, and 28.4 per cent in the past year.

But the largest increases in house prices in the past year are outside Vancouver:

Tsawwassen up 41 per cent to $1.16-million.
Richmond up 36.5 per cent to $1.5-million.
Ladner up 35 per cent to $971,500.

Apartment and townhouse listings went up 20.6 and 22.1 per cent, respectively, in the past year in Greater Vancouver.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver covers Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, North Vancouver, West Vancouver, Squamish, Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.

The benchmark detached home price in the Fraser Valley also rose 30 per cent over the last year, to $776,500, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

That area includes Surrey, White Rock, Langley, North Delta, Abbotsford and Mission.

The price increases are, not surprisingly, driven by a strong demand with not much supply.

There was a slight increase in residential listings last month, but not enough to keep up, said Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board president Dan Morrison in a release.

“While we’re seeing more homes listed for sale in recent months, supply is still chasing this unprecedented surge of demand in our marketplace,” he said.

In April 2016, sales of all properties (not just detached homes) in Metro Vancouver were 41.7 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month.

Meanwhile, the total number of properties currently listed in Metro Vancouver is down 38.3 per cent from last year.

That means the sales-to-active listings ratio — a measure analysts use take the temperature of a market — was 63 per cent in April 2016, the sign of a seller’s market.

Home prices tend to experience upward pressure when that ratio is just 20 or 22 per cent, according to the board.

Source: CBC News http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-house-prices-1.3564528

Assessed values of both Vancouver east and west side single-family properties climbed dramatically over the past year, according to B.C. Assessment.

It released its annual assessment figures January 4 and it provided a few examples of some individual assessments including one for an East Side, single-family, 33-foot lot, which jumped by 28% from $993,000 to $1,267,000, and one for a West Side, single-family, 33-foot lot that rose by 23% from $1,575,000 to $1,940,000.

Assessed values for strata properties didn’t grow nearly as significantly. In one example provided by B.C. Assessment, a West Side low-rise strata unit increased by 8% from $615,000 to $662,000, while the value of an East Side high-rise strata increased 6% from $381,000 to $405,000.

“The real standout [in Vancouver] this year would be the market movement for single-family properties. You would probably have to go back — if you went back to 1980, there’s probably only two or three other times when single-family properties in Vancouver have moved by this much this quickly,” Jason Grant, regional assessor for B.C. Assessment, told the Courier.

“What really contrasts this year as well is the strata market would really be down in that five to 10% range, so it’s not moving the same amount. It’s a significant contrast this year.”

Grant added that in any given year there might be extreme pockets of movement, but what’s notable this year is that the assessed value of the majority of single-family properties across Vancouver climbed by between 15 and 25% — and some in excess of that figure.

The fact many East Side residential properties, on a percentage basis, outperformed West Side ones also doesn’t happen very often, he said.

Property owners should note that the assessment roll reflects market values as of July 2015 and the value of many single-family properties have grown — in some cases significantly — since then.

“So the other big difference this year is people might open their assessment and it’s reflecting July values and their values might have risen fairly dramatically since then depending on whereabouts they’re located. That also doesn’t happen very often to that degree,” Grant said.

B.C. Assessment sent 37,000 warning letters, in a province of more than 2,000,000 property owners, advising of extreme changes in assessments — that is, if a property’s assessed value was going up more than 15% above the typical for the taxation jurisdiction.

Grant said 22,000 of those letters went to property owners in the Greater Vancouver region.

“If the typical was 25% in a particular jurisdiction, we would send letters to people who went up 40% or above,” he explained. “… You probably wouldn’t get a letter in Vancouver unless you were going up more than about 40%. If you’re in the 20 to 30% range or the 25-35% range that, believe it or not, is fairly typical.”

Assessments for single-family properties in many Lower Mainland communities including North Vancouver, West Vancouver, Burnaby, Tri-cities, New Westminster and Squamish also saw large assessment increases in the 15 to 25% range, but assessed values of single-family and strata properties outside the Lower Mainland didn’t grow as much. They ranged from 0-10%.

Overall, the Greater Vancouver region’s total assessments increased from $546.7 billion in 2015 to $636.2 billion this year.

Assessments are in the mail this week, but they can be found online already. B.C. Assessments’ e-valueBC service went live January 1.

It’s been overhauled since last year. Now it’s map-based, so you don’t have to know the address of a property — you can simply click on it. The site allows users to check other properties’ assessed values and compare them to their own.

Typically, only 1-2% of property owners ask for a review of their assessment, a figure that usually doesn’t change even in years where assessment values rise significantly. A notice of appeal must be filed by February 1.

Grant said changes in assessments don’t automatically translate into a corresponding change in taxes.

“It’s going to depend on where you are relative to the average,” he said.

So, what should property owners expect next year?

“We are already, believe it or not, six months in towards our next valuation cut off of July 2016 and the market has moved significantly already since July. So if it keeps on this trajectory, there will be an increase again next year for 2017,” Grant said.

Source: Naoibh O’Connor, Vancouver Courier

Home prices continue to soar in Vancouver and the North Shore, where the average two-storey detached home is now selling for more than $1.27 million. The average price for detached bungalows and two-storey houses across Vancouver, North Vancouver and West Vancouver have jumped by 10.6 per cent and 10.3 per cent in the last year, according to Royal LePage’s House Price Survey, released Wednesday. The average bungalow now sells for $1.175 million.

“The average price for homes in Vancouver shot up in the first quarter, particularly for detached single-family homes. This is being caused in large part by a scarcity of product and the high demand to live in the area,” Royal LePage broker Bill Binnie said in a news release.

Realtors on the west side are claiming that prices for single family homes in some high-demand areas have jumped by as much as 40 per cent.

Condominiums have gone up in price, too, showing an increase of 4.9 per cent to reach an average of $506,624.

“The market for condos has improved, but it is nowhere near as active as for detached homes,” Binnie said.

“Vancouver real estate has been a hot topic locally and nationally in recent months. With all of the discussions taking place, people are coming to the realization that there are a lot of prospective buyers chasing a limited number of detached homes. Would-be buyers are trying to get in now while they still can.”

Nationally, a Royal LePage survey found that the average price of detached bungalows was up 6.6 per cent to $405,895 and the average price of a two-storey home was up 5.3 per cent to $451,463.

The Canadian Real Estate Association also released its latest home sale numbers last week, showing a 7.19-per-cent increase over last year’s prices for all greater Vancouver real estate sales.

“Greater Vancouver and the GTA are really the only two hot spots for home sales and prices in Canada,” Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist said in a news release.

“Price gains in these two markets are being fuelled by a shortage of single family homes for sale in the face of strong demand. Meanwhile, supply and demand for homes is well balanced among the vast majority of housing markets elsewhere across Canada.”

The number of Canadian home sales in March was up by 4.1 per cent compared with February. The CREA says sales through its Multiple Listing Service last month were up in nearly two-thirds of the markets it tracks, led by gains in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton.

Source: Bethany Lindsay, Vancouver Sun

From Albertan black gold to globetrotting wealth to lucky heirs, big money is flocking to Vancouver real estate and fuelling huge price increases that show no sign of stopping, according to the CEO of Sotheby’s Canada.

“You’re not only going to be competing with other wealthy Canadians, you’re going to be competing with wealthy people all over the world,” Ross McCredie told Business in Vancouver.

Sotheby’s Canada, which specializes in high-end real estate, released its annual luxury homebuyer report today. The report breaks out high-end real estate buyers into three generations: baby boomers, Generation X and Generation Y.

The report characterizes baby boomers as sitting on a large amount of collective wealth because they have benefited from inheritances from their parents and, especially in Vancouver, have seen their homes greatly appreciate in value over the past 25 years.

Eighty per cent of high-net-worth Canadians are over 55, and that generation now represents 30% of Canada’s population, according to Statistics Canada figures quoted in Sotheby’s report.

In turn, boomers are now helping their Gen Y children — the report defines this group as 15-35 — buy real estate. A Genworth Canada survey of first time homebuyers released April 7 found that in Vancouver, 40% had help from their parents, compared to 25% throughout Canada.

Meanwhile, Generation X (34 to 54) has largely had to fend for itself. McCredie called this cohort “generation screwed.” The high-end buyers in this group tend to be double-income professional couples, but they have been priced out of Kitsilano, Dunbar or Point Grey. They’re increasingly looking at homes in East Vancouver, where detached homes are now commonly priced well over the $1 million mark.

“In Vancouver a lot of families are taking up in East Vancouver, where 10 years ago that wouldn’t have been where they wanted to live,” McCredie said.

Wealth from outside the province’s borders continues to be attracted to Metro Vancouver, a trend McCredie said shows no sign of slowing.

That wealth is coming from other parts of Canada, in particular, from Alberta, as well as from abroad.

According to McCredie, wealthy Albertans have been attracted to Vancouver’s Coal Harbour neighbourhood, as well as Vancouver Island and Kelowna, and treat those properties as vacation homes. So it’s no surprise to him that Coal Harbour has a relatively high number of vacant condos (at 23.5%, the highest vacancy rate in the City of Vancouver, according to a 2013 analysis done by Bing Thom Architects planner Andy Yan).

“A lot of people bought in Coal Harbour because they only want to spend eight or 10 weeks of the year here and a lot of them are from Calgary or Edmonton and Toronto,” McCredie said.

“They’re not working or living here. They love Vancouver and they want to spend a good chunk of time here.”

The high-end real estate markets in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal are all “heavily influenced” by international buyers, according to the report. Buyers from China dominate in Vancouver, from China, Russia and the Middle East in Toronto, and from the Middle East, China, Europe (especially France) in Montreal.

International students from wealthy families are also playing a role in Vancouver’s real estate market, McCredie said.

A common pattern is for the students’ parents to buy a high-end condo or even a large detached house in a wealthy neighbourhood such as Shaughnessy, with plans for the entire family to move to Vancouver in the future.

McCredie said the discontinuation of Canada’s investor immigrant program has had little impact on foreign real estate purchases in Vancouver.

That program required individuals with a minimum net worth of $1.6 million to loan Canada $800,000; it attracted 36,973 immigrants to British Columbia, two-thirds of whom came from mainland China. The program has since been changed to allow only 50 applicants a year.

The change has not deterred the flow of foreign money into Vancouver real estate because many investors are not interested in immigrating to Canada, McCredie said.

“A lot of these guys are very wealthy and they don’t want to pay Canadian taxes,” McCredie said.

Foreign money will continue to flow to Vancouver because the region has developed infrastructure and expertise to help wealthy people buy property. The recently launched official Chinese currency hub will make transactions even more convenient, McCredie said.

“The U.S. right now is a really difficult place to immigrate to or even buy a property in, whereas Canada has been much more welcoming,” McCredie said, adding that HSBC Canada, which is headquartered in Vancouver, is particularly well set-up to handle transactions from foreign buyers.

“Post 9-11, so much gets looked into in banking relationships [in the United States]. It takes a little longer to get your money from China into a Los Angeles bank.”

That means prices, especially for detached homes, which are limited in supply, will continue to rise. A recent Vancouver Savings Credit Union report predicted that by 2030, the average home price in Metro Vancouver will exceed $2.1 million.

Meanwhile, average incomes in Metro Vancouver continue to lag behind those of other major Canadian cities. Over the next three years, the City of Vancouver plans to spend $125 million from its capital budget on efforts to house both low- and middle-income people, as rising rents and tight housing supply squeeze residents.

While some observers have called for policy makers to take a look at reigning in foreign investment through higher taxes or restrictions, McCredie balked at that suggestion.

“If the government came out and prevented foreign buyers from buying real estate, it would have a huge impact in our market,” he said.

“And you would see a correction.”

Source: Jen St. Denis at Business in Vancouver with files from Frank O’Brien

Greater Vancouver’s housing market is booming this spring as residential sales soar and prices hit record highs, placing sellers in a strong position.

There were 4,060 single-family detached homes, condos and townhouses that sold in the region last month on the Multiple Listing Service, up 53.7 per cent from a year earlier. The number of properties that traded hands last month was 26.8 per cent above the 10-year average for March sales volume.

The average price for detached homes in Greater Vancouver touched a record $1,406,426 last month, surpassing the previous high set in February.

The real estate sector says the average price skews the picture because the most expensive resale properties are included. Industry officials point instead to the Home Price Index (HPI) – a representation of the typical house in what is portrayed as a better barometer of pricing trends in an area.

By that measure, the benchmark HPI swelled to a record $1,052,800 for detached houses in Greater Vancouver last month, up 11.2 per cent over the past year. The region includes suburbs such as Burnaby, Richmond and Coquitlam.

On Vancouver’s west side, the HPI rose 12.3 per cent year over year to a new high of $2,447,700 for detached properties while climbing 14.5 per cent to $1,015,200 on the east side. It marks the first time that the HPI has exceeded the million-dollar mark for detached homes on the east side, an area formerly considered to be affordable for first-time buyers.

Darcy McLeod, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said the region’s market is the most frenzied that he has seen in eight years. The boom is being fuelled by low mortgage rates and robust demand from people moving to British Columbia from overseas and other provinces, he said.

“Open houses are very busy. There are lots of buyers competing for good properties,” Mr. McLeod said in an interview Thursday. “In some neighbourhoods, properties are going for much higher prices than we would expect. There is pent-up demand and the housing inventory is lower than normal.”

Listings totalled 12,376 for all housing types last month, down 14.5 per cent from a year earlier.

The result has been a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 32.8 per cent, or the highest since March, 2007. B.C. real estate agents consider it to be a buyer’s market below 15 per cent and a seller’s market above 20 per cent in the Vancouver region, and last month’s ratio places Greater Vancouver firmly on the side of sellers.

A recent study by Andrew Yan, an urban planner with Bing Thom Architects, showed that 99 per cent of detached properties on Vancouver’s west side and 44 per cent on the city’s east side had assessed values of at least $1-million on July 1, 2014. In total, Mr. Yan found that 66 per cent of the nearly 68,600 detached properties within the City of Vancouver were assessed at $1-million or higher last July. Adjusted for inflation, only 33 per cent of Vancouver detached houses made the million-dollar club in 2009 data.

Mr. McLeod said assessed values are out of date, and multiple offers were common last month in the red-hot market. “We’re seeing a lot of buyers who are getting frustrated – I wouldn’t say panicked, but concerned,” he said.

Source: Brent Jang, The Globe and Mail

Strong demand in Metro Vancouver – Canada’s hottest real estate region – has pushed typical detached home prices past the $1-million mark, with February sales well above average.

Who is purchasing the homes, and how can they afford them? Offshore buyers are stepping up, as are people capitalizing on low interest rates and renting out suites, according to Ray Harris, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The benchmark price for a single family home in Metro Vancouver is now $1,026,300, up 9.7 per cent over February 2014, according to the real estate board.

Benchmark properties represent a typical residential home in a given market, and in Richmond, Burnaby, Vancouver and North Vancouver, single-family benchmark homes now exceed $1 million.

Several other Lower Mainland municipalities are creeping up to the million-dollar mark, including Port Moody at more than $900,000, and Coquitlam at more than $800,000.

Despite the hefty increases, the real estate board says buyer and seller activity was strong in February, with home sale and listing totals beating the region’s 10-year average for the month by 20 per cent.

“It’s an active and competitive marketplace today. Buyers are motivated and homes that are priced competitively are selling at a brisk pace,” Harris said.

He attributed the growth in sales to offshore buyers, Vancouver residents moving out of the core and record low interest rates. Buyers are now taking out larger mortgages and covering them by renting out suites in their houses, he said.

“How can people afford a million-dollar home? Well if they have an income of $3,200 from two suites, all of a sudden it’s more affordable,” he said. “You are going to see a lot more suites and sharing of the costs.”

Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business, sounded a cautionary note, describing the boom as “of great concern.”

“People are clearly using the (tiny) drop in interest rates to over-extend themselves even more,” he wrote in an email, adding that he saw the drop in interest rates and sharp decline of the dollar as “symptoms of a very weak Canadian economy.”

Residential property sales in the region reached 3,061 on the Multiple Listing Service — a 21 per cent increase over the same month last year and a 60 per cent increase over January 2014. The benchmark price for all Metro Vancouver residential properties rose to $649,700, 6.4 per cent above February 2014.

Even the recently stale condominium market is gaining traction, with recent price increases above the rate of inflation — something that hasn’t been seen for several years, said Cameron Muir, chief economist at the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Muir said home sales should continue to increase, though record sales levels are unlikely this year or next. The sales figures, while strong, were beating averages that had been depressed for a few years, he said.

“Sales will be above your longer-term averages. We’re kind of ratcheted up to another level that we haven’t seen in a number of years, and that’s being backed by some pretty solid economic fundamentals,” he said, including low interest rates, a strong economy and low gas prices that help to raise confidence.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in the region totalled 5,425 in February, a 15.4 per cent increase compared to the 4,700 new listings reported in February 2014.

The sales-to-listings ratio was 25.7 per cent, the highest since March 2011, according to the board.

“Total homes for sale on the marketplace has really steadily declined … and as a result we’ve seen marketplace conditions go from buyer’s market conditions in 2012 to now cusping on that seller’s market territory in 2015,” Muir said.

Meanwhile, sales of all property types were up by 21 per cent in the Fraser Valley, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

Board president Jorda Maisey said it was the busiest February since 2007, with 1,337 homes sold in the Fraser Valley — compared to 1,102 the year before. The number of new listings declined by four per cent.

The benchmark price of a single-family detached home in Abbotsford in February was $450,200, 3.9 per cent higher than in February 2014. The price of a townhouse was $228,600. The benchmark detached home price in Langley was $585,900 and it was $945,300 in White Rock-South Surrey.

Source: Tiffany Crawford and Matthew Robinson, Vancouver Sun

That view, expressed recently by Business Council of B.C. executive vice-president Jock Ferguson, reflects the sentiments of many.

However, similar observations have been made in the past. Still, the cost of housing in the Vancouver area has kept climbing. It is impossible to predict when the pricing peak truly will be reached.

Greater Vancouver’s January home price index for a single detached home hit a record $1,010,000, up 8.4 per cent from one year earlier.

The rental market is equally daunting, with a low vacancy rate and hefty rents, especially for condo units.

Behind the problem of unaffordability is, and always has been, the law of supply and demand. There is no indication this force soon will be diminishing.

Greater Vancouver is attracting tens of thousands of newcomers a year, both from other countries and provinces.

For wealthy foreign migrants, the housing situation likely poses no obstacle. But most local buyers and renters, and migrants from other provinces, are not in a position to pay high rents or $1 million-plus to purchase.

Influential architect Michael Geller recently played host to a Simon Fraser University lecture, titled: 12 Affordable Housing Ideas For Vancouver. Unsurprisingly, it was so well attended that many would-be registrants were turned away.

Geller is calling for a two-pronged approach that would:

• have those wishing to live here reducing expectations about the size of housing they require and their need for two-car garages and granite countertops;

• have city planners become more creative and flexible with zoning, and building rules and regulations.

Specifically, Geller wants Vancouver-area planning departments to permit designs that maximize land use and have been tried successfully elsewhere.

Designs would, for example, allow construction of a cluster of small cottage-like homes on a single large residential lot; and designs that would extend construction of a house or apartment buildings right to side-lot property lines, as in dense European urban cores. Municipalities could more liberally permit construction and sale of micro suites of 300 to 400 square feet, laneway and coach houses and allow townhouses and duplexes to accommodate basements, which then could be rented as crucial mortgage helpers.

The city of Vancouver is well aware it has a severe housing affordability problem, having established an arm’s length affordable housing agency in 2014 to find ways of supplying more housing at more reasonable prices.

But the agency has yet to launch a much-needed public discussion about innovative proposals such as Geller’s. The public deserves a chance to digest the prospect of further densification.

Early action clearly is needed in the face of the ever-escalating property prices.

Source: Editorial, The Vancouver Sun

Buy a house. Don’t buy a house. Soft landing. Crash landing. As we start the new year, the question on everyone’s mind is: What can we expect from Canada’s housing market?

Once again, experts agree that housing affordability is stretched, historically low interest rates will rise, and housing prices will drop. Rewind 365 days and you could be reading a forecast for 2014. But this time the experts agree: prices really will fall and it’s got everything to do with the recovery of the global economy.

Now, if the global economy were a ballgame we wouldn’t be in the World Series. Oil prices are depressed and Europe is still struggling with its credit crunch. But things are slowly improving in the U.S. and within Canada, and the important teams are still in the game: our employment rate is stable, oil prices are not (yet) low enough to cause real concern, and exports have picked up as the value of our dollar has dropped. All this leads most economists to believe we’ll see slightly higher bond and mortgage rates and a nation-wide cooling of the housing market over the next couple of years.

Robert Hogue, senior economist with RBC Bank, says he believes the coming year will be “a moderating phase for the market with a soft landing in 2016.” Hogue predicts national home prices will actually rise 1% or maybe 1.5% in 2015, as buyers race to get in the market before mortgage rates increase, after which prices will fall later in the year. “It’s one of the reasons why 2014 was such a strong year.”

But he cautions home owners: “Canada’s real estate market really is a multi-headed beast. It’s essentially very strong in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, but it’s balanced or soft in the majority of other markets.” As such, he predicts we’ll see a cooling of the three biggest markets by the end of the year in response to small mortgage rate hikes starting mid-year.

Now, if the prime rate were to climb from its current 3% level to 5% or 6% over the next year or two, many Canadians could find themselves in deep trouble, says Hogue. But he isn’t sure we’ll see rates shooting up that fast any time soon. Until recently, analysts and policy makers considered 5% to be the neutral or natural interest rate. It was the rate that allowed full employment, a stable inflation rate, and a sustainable growing economy. But Hogue, along with economists from Morgan Stanley and analysts from the C.D. Howe Institute, believe that the “new neutral rate” has actually dropped.

The primary reason is the impact baby boomers continue to have on the national economy. As boomers continue to age and leave the workforce, Canada can expect a slowing of the labour market, which will depress productivity growth, limit the economy, and suppress potential inflation, explains Hogue. “If the new normal is markedly below what we’re used to, then we won’t see as much downward pressure on housing prices,” he says.

The impact of demographics doesn’t stop there. According to a new report by Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC, analysts have been seriously underestimating the number of new immigrants in Canada. New immigrants account for 70% of the country’s population growth and about half are between the ages of 25 and 44—the key demographic that leads to household formations. According to Tal the under-estimated increase in the number of home-buying immigrants in Canada will help to offset a slowing economy, created by the boomer generation. “Immigration, itself, won’t be able to change this trajectory, but it will help to offset it,” explains Tal.

But David Madani from Capital Economics isn’t convinced. “Every good economist knows that immigration always fluctuates and it’s never prevented a housing cycle in the past.” He’s also not convinced that builders are out of the weeds when it comes to supply and demand. While he agrees that absorption rates are close to historical long-term averages, he’s confident that the market will suffer. “There are too many one-bedroom condo units being built when demand shows a need for family accommodation.”

So what’s a regular home buyer to do? The best advice is prepare for the worst, but if you’re ready to jump in and you can afford it, waiting for prices to fall might not be the best idea. Ted Rechtshaffen, president and CEO at TriDelta Financial, advises against trying to time the market in general. “It’s not about prices or the mortgage rate, it’s whether you can truly afford to own the home.” This means calculating whether or not you could still afford your monthly payments even if mortgage rates increased to 4% or 5% a few years from now. It also means deciding whether or not you can stomach a housing price drop. While many economists are predicting a 10% drop, the correction could be as great as 30% in some Canadian markets.

Of course, your home is more then equity and capital. It’s the place you spend time with friends and family, and the place you build memories. “Life and lifestyle is just as important,” says Rechtshaffen, so as long as you can afford your payments, “don’t be too concerned about the correction.”

Source: Romana King, MoneySense

Housing prices in the Lower Mainland are predicted to rise a modest three per cent in 2015, while Canada’s highest prices, in Vancouver, will be sustained by demand from Mainland Chinese buyers.

That’s the view from RE/MAX’s 2015 national housing outlook, in a relatively optimistic report that suggests Greater Vancouver real estate is well supported by a variety of supply and demand factors.

RE/MAX’s report diverges strongly from a new Bank of Canada report that warns parts of Canada’s housing market are overvalued by 30 per cent.

RE/MAX’s report says average residential prices in Greater Vancouver increased from $781,517 in 2013 to $838,400, and are projected to rise to $863,600 in 2015.
Price gains in Vancouver will continue to be driven by hot demand and limited supply for detached homes in west-side neighbourhoods, RE/MAX predicts, while buyers who hoped to break into Vancouver’s market on the east side and lost multiple bid battles may drop out of the market in 2015.

Frustrated buyers won’t limit the market, though, because “the pipeline of demand for the region will continue to grow,” according to RE/MAX.

“Offshore buyer demand from Mainland China continued throughout the year,” the report says. “Demand for westside homes will continue to be driven by offshore buyers who can afford to pay the two million dollar-plus price tag.”

Cory Raven, managing broker at RE/MAX Select Realty in Vancouver, say agents report that “the mindset” of Mainland Chinese buyers focuses on “parking wealth” in Vancouver, rather than seeking price appreciation. That means a significant group of buyers in Vancouver is content to buy higher and higher, agents believe.

“Assuming that tap stays open, the higher end of the market will (continue to see aggressive gains),” Raven says.

There has been speculation that the flood of cash pouring from China into Vancouver real estate will be limited with the ending this year of a federal immigrant investor program. The South China Morning Post has reported a replacement program will be much smaller in scope, and will subject applicants to rigorous audits. But Raven says the perception among realtors is “the tap” will stay open.

“Many realtors have told me that the way business is done (in China) is very different, and the wealthy can always find a way to get their money out.”

Meanwhile, in a new report, the Bank of Canada studied worrying debt loads carried by homeowners across Canada, and calculated that some markets are at risk of correction, with homes overvalued by up to 30 per cent.

But Helmut Pastrick, chief economist of Central 1 credit union, says he believes the Bank of Canada’s data and study method is “constrained” and does not account for unique supply and demand factors in Vancouver’s housing market.

Pastrick says limited land supply in Vancouver is the main factor justifying high housing prices, and demand from Chinese buyers impacts Vancouver’s west side, and West Vancouver. But even if the flow of investment from offshore were to end, according to Pastrick, there would not be a significant drop in Greater Vancouver home prices.

Pastrick says he sees RE/MAX’s prediction of a three-per-cent rise in home prices across the region as reasonable.

“This market is not booming, but it is pretty solid,” he said. “It certainly is not a bubble.”

Pastrick says while U.S. officials appear ready to raise historically low interest rates within half a year, the Bank of Canada probably will not raise rates until late 2015 or longer.

While the Bank of Canada warns that high home prices and heavily indebted households raise risks of a housing correction, Pastrick believes the only real risk is an economic recession.

A drastic fall in oil prices that caught almost all economists by surprise will impact Alberta and other areas of Canada, but actually could support provincial economies such as B.C. that are net importers of oil, Pastrick believes. At this point, he sees no recession risk for B.C. on the horizon.

Source: Sam Cooper, The Province