Strong demand in Metro Vancouver – Canada’s hottest real estate region – has pushed typical detached home prices past the $1-million mark, with February sales well above average.

Who is purchasing the homes, and how can they afford them? Offshore buyers are stepping up, as are people capitalizing on low interest rates and renting out suites, according to Ray Harris, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The benchmark price for a single family home in Metro Vancouver is now $1,026,300, up 9.7 per cent over February 2014, according to the real estate board.

Benchmark properties represent a typical residential home in a given market, and in Richmond, Burnaby, Vancouver and North Vancouver, single-family benchmark homes now exceed $1 million.

Several other Lower Mainland municipalities are creeping up to the million-dollar mark, including Port Moody at more than $900,000, and Coquitlam at more than $800,000.

Despite the hefty increases, the real estate board says buyer and seller activity was strong in February, with home sale and listing totals beating the region’s 10-year average for the month by 20 per cent.

“It’s an active and competitive marketplace today. Buyers are motivated and homes that are priced competitively are selling at a brisk pace,” Harris said.

He attributed the growth in sales to offshore buyers, Vancouver residents moving out of the core and record low interest rates. Buyers are now taking out larger mortgages and covering them by renting out suites in their houses, he said.

“How can people afford a million-dollar home? Well if they have an income of $3,200 from two suites, all of a sudden it’s more affordable,” he said. “You are going to see a lot more suites and sharing of the costs.”

Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business, sounded a cautionary note, describing the boom as “of great concern.”

“People are clearly using the (tiny) drop in interest rates to over-extend themselves even more,” he wrote in an email, adding that he saw the drop in interest rates and sharp decline of the dollar as “symptoms of a very weak Canadian economy.”

Residential property sales in the region reached 3,061 on the Multiple Listing Service — a 21 per cent increase over the same month last year and a 60 per cent increase over January 2014. The benchmark price for all Metro Vancouver residential properties rose to $649,700, 6.4 per cent above February 2014.

Even the recently stale condominium market is gaining traction, with recent price increases above the rate of inflation — something that hasn’t been seen for several years, said Cameron Muir, chief economist at the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Muir said home sales should continue to increase, though record sales levels are unlikely this year or next. The sales figures, while strong, were beating averages that had been depressed for a few years, he said.

“Sales will be above your longer-term averages. We’re kind of ratcheted up to another level that we haven’t seen in a number of years, and that’s being backed by some pretty solid economic fundamentals,” he said, including low interest rates, a strong economy and low gas prices that help to raise confidence.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in the region totalled 5,425 in February, a 15.4 per cent increase compared to the 4,700 new listings reported in February 2014.

The sales-to-listings ratio was 25.7 per cent, the highest since March 2011, according to the board.

“Total homes for sale on the marketplace has really steadily declined … and as a result we’ve seen marketplace conditions go from buyer’s market conditions in 2012 to now cusping on that seller’s market territory in 2015,” Muir said.

Meanwhile, sales of all property types were up by 21 per cent in the Fraser Valley, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

Board president Jorda Maisey said it was the busiest February since 2007, with 1,337 homes sold in the Fraser Valley — compared to 1,102 the year before. The number of new listings declined by four per cent.

The benchmark price of a single-family detached home in Abbotsford in February was $450,200, 3.9 per cent higher than in February 2014. The price of a townhouse was $228,600. The benchmark detached home price in Langley was $585,900 and it was $945,300 in White Rock-South Surrey.

Source: Tiffany Crawford and Matthew Robinson, Vancouver Sun

That view, expressed recently by Business Council of B.C. executive vice-president Jock Ferguson, reflects the sentiments of many.

However, similar observations have been made in the past. Still, the cost of housing in the Vancouver area has kept climbing. It is impossible to predict when the pricing peak truly will be reached.

Greater Vancouver’s January home price index for a single detached home hit a record $1,010,000, up 8.4 per cent from one year earlier.

The rental market is equally daunting, with a low vacancy rate and hefty rents, especially for condo units.

Behind the problem of unaffordability is, and always has been, the law of supply and demand. There is no indication this force soon will be diminishing.

Greater Vancouver is attracting tens of thousands of newcomers a year, both from other countries and provinces.

For wealthy foreign migrants, the housing situation likely poses no obstacle. But most local buyers and renters, and migrants from other provinces, are not in a position to pay high rents or $1 million-plus to purchase.

Influential architect Michael Geller recently played host to a Simon Fraser University lecture, titled: 12 Affordable Housing Ideas For Vancouver. Unsurprisingly, it was so well attended that many would-be registrants were turned away.

Geller is calling for a two-pronged approach that would:

• have those wishing to live here reducing expectations about the size of housing they require and their need for two-car garages and granite countertops;

• have city planners become more creative and flexible with zoning, and building rules and regulations.

Specifically, Geller wants Vancouver-area planning departments to permit designs that maximize land use and have been tried successfully elsewhere.

Designs would, for example, allow construction of a cluster of small cottage-like homes on a single large residential lot; and designs that would extend construction of a house or apartment buildings right to side-lot property lines, as in dense European urban cores. Municipalities could more liberally permit construction and sale of micro suites of 300 to 400 square feet, laneway and coach houses and allow townhouses and duplexes to accommodate basements, which then could be rented as crucial mortgage helpers.

The city of Vancouver is well aware it has a severe housing affordability problem, having established an arm’s length affordable housing agency in 2014 to find ways of supplying more housing at more reasonable prices.

But the agency has yet to launch a much-needed public discussion about innovative proposals such as Geller’s. The public deserves a chance to digest the prospect of further densification.

Early action clearly is needed in the face of the ever-escalating property prices.

Source: Editorial, The Vancouver Sun

Canada’s housing market has been cooling, led by Alberta, but Toronto and Vancouver are surging forward fuelled by lower borrowing costs.

Recent trends have seen a red-hot housing market in Alberta along with the big urban markets of Toronto and Vancouver driving the national-level overvaluation. However, Alberta is now driving the weakness in home sales with other metrics of the national housing market slowly following.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported on Tuesday, Feb. 17, national home sales falling 3.1 percent from December to January. This is the second month in a row sales have declined notably.

“The decline in national sales largely reflects weakened activity in Calgary and Edmonton,” said CREA’s chief economist Gregory Klump.

“If these two markets are removed from national totals, combined sales activity remained 1.9 percent above year-ago levels,” he added. Instead, compared to year-ago levels, national sales were down 2.0 percent for January.

The fall in the price of oil has seen Alberta’s housing market take a sharp turn south. Housing inventory has doubled in the last year in Calgary as a result of new listings rising 37 percent and sales falling 39 percent. Edmonton’s inventory in January 2015 is up 35 percent from December 2014.

As a result, CREA’s measure of inventory has risen to a 6.5 months’ supply, the highest since April 2013. The sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.7, which is the first time this ratio has been below 50 since December 2012. It’s still in balanced territory, but the trend is clear.

Prices tend to lag sales and this is evident in that Calgary still shows the largest year-over-year price increase for January, at 7.76 percent, with Greater Toronto (7.47 percent) and Greater Vancouver (5.53 percent) following. CREA notes that while year-over-year price gains in Calgary are shrinking, those in Toronto and Vancouver are picking up, however.

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) released mid-month housing figures on Wednesday, Feb. 18, and reported a 14.9 percent increase in the number of sales for the first two weeks of February as compared to the same period last year.

“While home prices are higher compared to this time last year, borrowing costs are lower. Home buyers are still finding affordable options to meet their housing needs,” said TREB president Paul Etherington in the press release.

The average selling price in Toronto for the first half of February was $602,110 — a 10.3 percent year-over-year increase. The tight market conditions are approaching seller’s market territory, according to a Feb. 18 BMO special report on the housing market.

Vancouver’s home sales are up 8.7 percent from January 2014 and are nearly 15 percent higher than the 10-year sales average for January.

“While demand remains steady, we’re seeing fewer homes for sale at the moment,” said Ray Harris, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver in a Feb. 3 press release. “This is creating greater competition amongst buyers.

Source: Rahul Vaidyanath, Epoch Times

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver released new figures yesterday that showed the typical detached property in the area increased 8.4 per cent from January 2014 to $1,010,000. The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $641,600.

It also showed the number of home sales in Greater Vancouver was higher last month than the average over the past decade. While the number of sales increased nearly 15 per cent for the month of January, there are fewer homes for sale.

“While demand remains steady, we’re seeing fewer homes for sale at the moment,” said Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board president Ray Harris in a release. “This is creating greater competition amongst buyers, particularly in the detached home market. The number of detached homes listed for sale today is the second lowest we’ve seen in four years.”

The Bank of Canada lowered the benchmark interest rate from one per cent to 0.75 per cent on Jan. 21 to lessen the blow of dropping oil prices.

This rate cut by the central bank likely means lower interest rates for variable rate mortgages, lines of credit and other loans based on the prime rate, and will likely boost consumer spending.

“A reduced rate could allow you to pay down your mortgage a little faster, save some money on your monthly payments, or change the amount you qualify for,” Harris said. “It’s important that you do your homework and understand how these announcements impact your situation.”

Apartment property sales in January went up 7.4 per cent from the same month last year, and jumped 40.5 per cent from January 2013.

The Real Estate Board defines the benchmark price as one designed to represent a typical residential property in a particular housing market.

Source: CTV Vancouver with files from the Canadian Press

Canada’s major banks are heading into a renewed mortgage price war in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s surprise decision to cut interest rates.

Mortgage brokers reported that Royal Bank of Canada dropped its five-year fixed rate for qualified borrowers to 2.84 per cent over the weekend. While smaller, non-bank lenders have started offering even cheaper rates, RBC’s rate cut is likely a record for a major bank, said Drew Donaldson, executive vice-president of Safebridge Financial Group. The bank also slashed its posted 10-year fixed rate to 3.84 per cent, the lowest nationally advertised rate in the country, said Robert McLister, founder of Ratespy.com.

RBC spokesman Wojtek Dabrowski said the bank continues to “review the impact of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision,” and that the company’s “individual product lines continue to make pricing adjustments in the regular course of business to ensure we provide competitive rates in the marketplace.”

Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada have also cut fixed rates on broker-originated mortgages by 10 to 20 basis points in recent days. Toronto-Dominion Bank said it was dropping its posted 5-year fixed rate on Tuesday to 3.09 per cent, down from 3.29 per cent.

Mortgage officials said RBC was among the last of the major banks to introduce new rate specials.

“National Bank already offers competitive rates over the mortgage rate spectrum as we moved early over the past weeks,” bank spokesman Claude Breton said.

A battle in the mortgage market seemed inevitable given that Government of Canada bond yields have plummeted in recent weeks, falling 57 basis points in the past month to historic lows. Brokers had predicted that falling bond yields were almost certain to drive down the fixed-rate mortgage pricing ahead of the competitive spring housing market even as banks have largely kept their prime rates, which govern variable-rate mortgages along with other types of loans, unchanged. All the major banks will soon be forced to follow the Bank of Canada and cut their prime rates 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, Mr. Donaldson said. “We expect more cuts to come from all lenders,” he said.

Even ahead of the Bank of Canada’s unexpected rate cut last week, the country’s major banks already seemed poised for a new round of rate cuts this year. Earlier this month, Bank of Montreal chief executive officer Bill Downe told an industry conference the bank was expecting to “again have a fresh offer that is appealing to customers” in the spring. The bank drew the ire of former finance minister Jim Flaherty in 2013 after it dropped its five-year fixed mortgage rate to 2.99 per cent in what Mr. Flaherty called a “race to the bottom.”

The renewed price war is raising concerns that the central bank’s rate cut will add fuel to the country’s overheated housing market even as Canadians struggle under the burden of rising household debt. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal warned last week that falling mortgage rates could lead to “a monstrous spring in the real estate market.”

Others argue that low rates may not be enough to kick start a housing market that had already begun to slow toward the end of this year as oil prices plunged. Even as they predicted that Canada’s central bank will cut interest rates a second time later this year, TD economists said Monday they expect Canada’s real estate market to fare poorly this year as cheap crude and sky-high house prices in major cities are making it difficult for new buyers to afford to jump into the market despite low mortgage rates. “The housing market is … projected to be a drag on growth, with changes in existing home sales and prices, as well as housing starts, forecast to tilt into negative territory,” the bank said.

Source: Tamsin McMahon, The Globe and Mail

Derek Petridis, a 39-year-old chief financial officer at Shikatani Lacroix Design Inc. in Toronto, has loaded up on seven condominium rental properties over the past decade.

It may seem like he’s got an extreme bet on the housing sector, but a new survey shows he is far from alone, with about one in 20 Canadian households owning some type of rental property.

The study from Altus Group, which relies on research from the Financial Industry Research Monitor, considered highly accurate on a national basis, shows that among households earning more than $100,000, the rate on rental property ownership is about 10%.

Rental property ownership tends to be higher for households with residents under age 50, which the study’s authors think may be driven by basement apartments and flats that homeowners are using to pay down their mortgages.

Home ownership rates in Canada are among the highest in the world with the 2011 census from Statistics Canada showing the trend to own continuing to climb and reaching 69%.

The other strength of the market has been people like Mr. Petridis, who have seen the benefit of owning investment properties. A Canada Mortgage and Housing report? last year of the Toronto and Vancouver markets found about 17% of condominium owners were investors.

“I fretted over the first purchase for weeks, but then I just started going from there. Once you are over the first one you fall in love with the cash flow, the model,” said Mr. Petridis, who has cooled his heels on the sector a bit and not purchased a new unit since 2011.

Peter Norman, chief economist with Altus Group, said the quarterly FIRM survey didn’t break down rental property ownership versus people simply renting out a piece of their principal residence, but there is some older data from Statistics Canada that addresses both aspects.

Renting out secondary suites or basement apartments seem to grow in tough times, as people use them as a way to cover their home ownership costs. “When times are tough, more renters choose that [way to live] because it’s cheaper and more homeowners find they need to supplement their income,” Mr. Norman said. “It does come and go and acts like a pressure valve in the housing market.”

Lately the valve has been left open as the number of secondary suites grows slightly. The census found there were 330,000 in 1996, 310,000 in 2001, 370,000 in 2006 and 390,000 in 2011. Builders have even been constructing new homes with roughed-in apartment suites with separate entrances and kitchens, Mr. Norman said.

Don Campbell, a real estate expert and author, said he started by renting out a basement apartment so he could buy a larger home than he might have otherwise been able to afford, and eventually moved on to larger real estate investments that didn’t involve his principal residence.

“Once they figure they can get a yield on their investment, they do,” said Mr. Campbell, adding Canadians are looking to get better income than they might achieve elsewhere like the stock market.

He thinks the basement suites are probably a large driver of the trend toward owning rental property. “That just might be the only way some people can afford to live in the neighborhood they want to,” said Mr. Campbell.

Source: Garry Marr, Financial Post

Already ranked as one of the most unaffordable cities in the world, Vancouver’s heated real estate market could get a further push, after the Bank of Canada cut the overnight lending interest rate to 0.75 per cent.

The rate had been at one per cent since September 2010 and the cut shocked markets on Wednesday. It will likely result in lower interest rates for variable rate mortgages, lines of credit and other loans that float with prime rates.

“That should provide a nice little potential boost for the housing market, not just in Vancouver but the rest of British Columbia as well,” said Bryan Yu, senior economist with Central 1 Credit Union.

But it depends how lenders respond to the Bank of Canada’s surprise interest rate drop with changes to mortgage rates, said Yu.

He expects the rate cut will put “mild downward pressure” on fixed and variable mortgage rates, but not make big waves on the housing market.

“This doesn’t change our outlook for Vancouver’s housing market significantly,” said Yu.

The credit union’s recent B.C. housing outlook forecast the median detached house price would climb by four per cent in greater Vancouver — continuing to outpace growth in condo prices.

Vancouver mortgage broker Michelle Byman said if lenders cut their rates, a quarter point change won’t make a big difference.

“It will help people that are buying,” said Byman. “But I don’t think that’s going to fuel anything more than what’s already going on in the market.”

On a $100,000, 25-year mortgage, lowering the rate from 3 per cent to 2.75 per cent would only cut someone’s $473.23 monthly payment by $13, said Byman.

Even on a $500,000 mortgage, a quarter point drop would only mean paying $63 less per month, she said.

Byman said 2010 federal policy changes intended to turn down the heat on Canada’s housing market affect the buyers she deals with.

In particular, the government requirement that borrowers qualify for the posted rate for a fixed five-year mortgage — even if that’s higher than the rate they’ll pay — limits how far buyers can extend themselves, said Byman.

Source: Lisa Johnson, CBC News

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will remain in interest-rate hibernation for another year as plunging oil prices raise concerns the nation’s economic growth is in jeopardy, economists say.

Poloz, who delivers the central bank’s next rate decision tomorrow, will hold off raising borrowing costs until 2016, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg monthly survey, which previously predicted the governor would lift rates later this year. Economists also cut two-year yield forecasts by the most on record.

The central bank hasn’t raised its benchmark interest rate since 2010 as it awaits an economic recovery that’s in danger of fading. Crude oil, Canada’s biggest export, is trading below $50 a barrel, from $107 in the summer. The slump is already crimping exports, weakening investment and playing havoc with prairie housing markets. The last thing the economy needs is higher interest rates.

“Markets are doing the dirty work for the Bank of Canada,” Emanuella Enenajor, senior Canada economist at Bank of America, said Jan. 15 by phone from New York. “We are still going to see the Bank of Canada holding on to their assertion that the recovery is proceeding, perhaps it’s just proceeding a bit slower than they thought.”

“They are definitely going to have to acknowledge that there is a large downside risk from falling oil prices,” in the new economic forecast, Enenajor said. Last week she pushed her rate-increase forecast to the third quarter of 2016 from the first quarter.

The Bank of Canada has kept its benchmark rate at 1 percent since September 2010, predating Poloz taking the governor job, and is the longest stretch since World War II.

Bets are increasing that Poloz will cut rates, rather than raise them, with swaps trading signaling about a one in three chance of a reduction to 0.75 percent by December.

Homes sales in the nation’s oil hub – Calgary – and Alberta’s largest city plummeted 24.6 percent in December from the previous month, the Canadian Real Estate Association said last week. That was the worst drop since the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sparked the global credit crunch.

Source (edited): Greg Quinn and Catarina Saraiva, Bloomberg News

First-time home buyers are spending more to get into homeownership while some are putting off the buying decision based on financial considerations, says a new report from BMO.

The average spent in Canada by first-time buyers is $316,100, up from $300,000 in 2013, according to the BMO 2014 First-Time Home Buyers Report, with only one of the country’s top four markets coming in under the national average.

In Montreal, first-timers spend an average of $237,900, in Toronto $408,300, in Calgary $363,400, with Vancouver having the highest average first-timer spend of $506,500.

Despite the increases in spend, the average downpayment remains unchanged from last year at $50,576 (16% of the average national spend).

BMO also reports 30% of first timers expect parents or family to assist in their purchase, a percentage that rises to 40% in Montreal and Vancouver.

The majority (61%) have made cutbacks to their lifestyle in order to save for their first home.

Six in 10 say their home-buying timeline has been delayed, with 39% citing rising real estate prices as the main reason.

“Among the many considerations for those trying to get a foot in the door of the real estate market for the first time, the most important of all is building a substantial downpayment,” says Laura Parsons, a mortgage expert with BMO Bank of Montreal. “Buying a home is one of the most important financial decisions one can make, and typically represents the largest form of savings for Canadian households. It’s crucial those planning to buy are well-prepared and have considered all options available to them.”

The rising prices in the major markets are forcing first-timers to reconsider their first choice of housing.

“High prices in a few major cities, and the fact that prices are outrunning incomes in Toronto, are turning off some first-time buyers, while forcing others to go deeper into debt, tap their parents for hefty down payments and opt for a condo rather than a detached house,” says Sal Guatieri, senior economist, BMO Capital Markets.

While 60% of first-time buyers say they will set a budget and stick with it, 30% are prepared to go higher for the right home.

Parsons recommends first timers should set price boundaries before setting out on the home-buying journey.

“To help ensure first-time buyers don’t spend beyond their means, they need to be fully prepared to purchase the right house, at the right price. Getting pre-approved gives buyers the opportunity to consider multiple options, during a time-sensitive decision period,” she says.

Source: Myke Thomas, Calgary Sun

House prices are expected to increase just “moderately” across Canada this year, led by above average gains in the Greater Toronto area but saddled by uncertainty in the West thanks to slumping oil prices.

House prices gains are likely to slow this year, but still average about 2.9 per cent across Canada, says realtor Royal LePage in its annual house price survey and market forecast released Wednesday.

That would bring the average price of a resale home to $419,318, up from $407,500 in 2014.

The national realtor has now revised its regional forecasts, however, as oil prices continue their slide.

Toronto is expected to lead the pack when it comes to price increases this year, with the realtor saying the average home price in Canada’s largest city is forecast to rise by 4.5 per cent, although that would be well behind last year’s pace.

It anticipates that the shift of economic activity from West to East, combined with the strengthening U.S. economy, could help drive even more demand for housing in the GTA.

That would bring the average resale price of condos and houses combined across the GTA to $592,000 — up from $566,500 in 2014 and $524,089 in 2013.

“We would have taken a more bearish approach to Toronto and the Ontario market had it not been for the sharp change in Canada’s economic conditions,” said Phil Soper in an interview, the president and chief executive of Royal LePage.

Vancouver is expected to see the second-biggest average jump in prices, up 2.8 per cent, followed by a 2.4 per cent gain in Calgary, among several of the major centres surveyed across the country.

“I do believe there are winners and losers, in the short term, both economically and in the housing markets. And one of the places (slumping oil prices) are playing out positively right now is in Central Canada.”

The fallout from oil also makes it less likely that interest rates will rise, as had been expected, sometime this year, noted Soper.

Calgary’s expected 2.4 per cent rise this year is less than half what had been anticipated before oil began its slide. That would still bring the average house price to $472,000 this year.

Calgary had been among the “hot three” Canadian housing markets in 2014 (Toronto and Vancouver were the other two), with detached bungalows up 9.1 per in the fourth quarter of 2014, year over year. Average two-storey homes saw prices jump 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter. Even condos saw price growth of 9.1 per cent during the quarter, says Royal LePage.

Vancouver’s likely 2.8 per cent gain keeps it firmly in top spot as the most expensive real estate market in the country, according to the national real estate company’s projections for nine major Canadian markets.

That would bring the average Vancouver home price to $835,000, which includes everything from condos to multi-million dollar single family homes.

Edmonton is expected to see gains of 2.5 per cent, followed by Ottawa at 1.8 per cent. House prices are anticipated to largely flatline in Halifax, Montreal and Winnipeg, but decrease by 1.3 per cent in Regina.

Source: Susan Pigg, Toronto Star