Homeowners in the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary and Vancouver are outpacing the national average when it comes to their intentions of buying a property within five years, according to the first BMO Housing Confidence Report released Tuesday.

Intentions to buy in the Greater Toronto Area (57 per cent), Calgary (62 per cent) and Vancouver (53 per cent) were above the national average (46 per cent).

Also, homeowners in Canada expect prices to rise by 2.0 per cent over the next year while those in Calgary expect an increase of 2.4 per cent.

“The fact that 46 per cent of Canadian homeowners intend to buy a property in the next five years implies that Canadians are feeling confident in the current real estate market environment,” said Martin Nel, vice-president of lending and investments with BMO Bank of Montreal. “However, that certainty is tempered, given the adverse effect moderate increases in home prices and mortgage costs would have on the average homeowner.”

“Rising debt and elevated house prices have increased the vulnerability of a meaningful number of households, and their financial situation will worsen if interest rates increase even moderately,” added Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets. “With rates likely to remain low for some time, the recent tightening in mortgage rules will help to cool credit growth and the housing market.”

The BMO report also revealed: 18 per cent plan to downsize to a smaller home and the same percentage intends to up-size to a larger home; 10 per cent plan to sell their home and move in to a rental property, retirement community, or move in with family in the same time period; 21 per cent plan to purchase an additional property for income, investment, or recreation; 57 per cent are familiar with the new mortgage regulations introduced earlier in 2012; 22 per cent say they are less likely to buy a new home in the next five years because of the changes; and 29 per cent planning to buy in the next five years say that they are likely to spend less on a new home as a result of the new rules.

Nationally, intentions to buy drop significantly from 46 per cent to 36 per cent in the event of a five per cent increase in home prices. In Alberta, a five per cent increase would change intent to buy by only one per cent; however, a 10 per cent increase would lower intent by nine per cent, moving from 51 per cent to 42 per cent.

Source: Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

A slowdown in real estate sales numbers in Vancouver, particularly in single-family homes worth more than $1 million, dragged down the country’s average home price in September, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

In Metro Vancouver, the average home price was down 3.8 per cent in September from a year earlier, which CREA said skews the national average price, which was up 1.1 per cent. Excluding Vancouver, the national average price was up 3.4 per cent from a year ago.

Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said the drop in Vancouver was caused by fewer really expensive sales this year compared to last year.

“Last year, the average was pitched higher by a whole bunch of high-priced sales, while this year, those sales haven’t recurred so it’s lower. You’ve got one that was stretched last year, and one that’s been shrunk this year by a change in the composition that makes up the average” Klump said. “I like to use the following analogy: If you line the kids up in class from shortest to tallest and take the average height, and then you excuse the 10 tallest kids and recalculate the average, then the average height will have shrunk, but none of the kids have.”

For this reason, average house prices are not the most consistent information to use, Klump said.

“It’s like looking in a funhouse mirror,” Klump said. “It doesn’t really give you a true picture of what’s going on with regard to price, which is why you really want to look at the home price index, which keeps the quality of homes constant over time.”

The Multiple Listing Service home price index is down 0.8 per cent to $606,000 in Vancouver year-over-year in September, while it is up 3.9 per cent nationally.

“Stricter high-ratio mortgage regulation further exacerbated a moderating trend in consumer demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist. “Reducing the maximum amortization from 30 to 25 years had the equivalent impact to affordability as a 100 basis point increase in mortgage interest rates.”

In Metro Vancouver, the dollar volume of sales was down 35.7 per cent in September, year-over-year, figures released Monday by the B.C. Real Estate Association show.

Robyn Adamache, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s senior market analyst for Vancouver, said sales of single family homes are down 29 per cent for the first nine months of 2012 compared to the same period last year, while townhouse sales are down 20 per cent and apartment sales are down 16 per cent.

Although the overall average home price is down seven per cent, single-family home prices are down five per cent on average, while townhouse prices are down one per cent and apartment prices are down three per cent. Because more apartments and fewer houses are selling this year, the decline in average price is larger than the drop in price for any particular property.

Adamache also said there is a shift in sales volume away from very expensive single-family homes in areas such as the west side of Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond and toward more affordable homes in places such as Maple Ridge.

Adamache said sales numbers are expected to remain flat until the middle of 2013, when they are expected to increase, not to the lofty levels seen in 2011, but approaching those levels. She said prices are expected to decline overall this year, with a smaller decline next year.

Muir also said demand is expected to be on the rise.

“An expanding population, strong full-time employment growth and persistent low mortgage interest rates are expected to bolster housing demand in the months ahead,” Muir said.

Sales volume numbers are a lot more volatile than prices, Klump said.

“If you’re not forced to sell at a price you’re not willing to accept, you don’t sell,” Klump said. “If you’re getting offers below what you’re prepared to sell for, you take it off the market.”

Nationally, home sales in September fell 15.1 per cent from a year ago, CREA reported, adding that sales in September were up 2.5 per cent from August — the first month-to-month gain since March.

“While some first-time homebuyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do,” Klump said.

While Vancouver’s home price index was down slightly, Calgary had a 6.5-per-cent increase in the index, the Toronto area was up 5.7 per cent, the Montreal area was up 2.2 per cent and the Fraser Valley was up 2.1 per cent.

Regina had the biggest increase among markets measured by the HPI, with a gain of 14.2 per cent from September 2011.

TD Bank economist Francis Fong said the month-over-month gain only partly offset August’s drop, with sales off their peaks in most markets across the country.

“The Canadian housing market has clearly lost some of its lustre,” Fong wrote in a note to clients.

“That being said, with interest rates remaining sufficiently accommodative, we do not anticipate any precipitous decline in housing activity in the near term. Rather, we expect a gradual unwinding of the imbalance in both sales and prices over the next few years.”

The sales report came as the Conference Board of Canada said that most Canadian cities are facing lower housing starts in the coming years as markets slow, with only 10 of the 28 cities showing positive long-term expectations.

Construction is going strong in Metro Vancouver, with housing starts on pace in September to reach 20,000 units by year’s end, mostly driven by multi-family developments, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported last week.

CREA said Monday there was still a balance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers in September, but conditions have eased.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 49 per cent in September 2012, remaining near the midpoint of a balanced market.

Source: Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun

The Canadian Real Estate Association says there was a slight improvement in the resale housing market last month, although it’s still slower than a year ago — mainly due to a slowdown in Vancouver.

The association said Monday sales in September were up 2.5% from August — the first month-to-month gain since March.

Compared with September 2011, however, the number of deals across the country last month was down 15.1%.

The association said there was still a balance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers in September but conditions have eased.

CREA attributed the slowdown to new rules brought in by Ottawa that make it harder for first-time buyers to qualify for mortgages.

However, other observers have noted that reduced affordability after years of rapid price increases — particularly in some markets such as Vancouver and Toronto — and an uncertain world economy have also dissuaded buyers.

“National activity is likely to remain down from year-ago levels over the fourth quarter of 2012,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“While some first time home buyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do.”

The national average home price was up 1.1% in September from a year earlier.

But the MLS HPI home price index, which also takes into account other factors, showed its smallest gain since May 2011, rising by 3.9% in September.

The association said Vancouver, the country’s most expensive residential real-estate market, skewed the national results.

Excluding that city, the national average price was up 3.4% from a year ago.

The MLS HPI in Vancouver posted a 0.8% decline year-over-year in September. In contrast, Calgary had a 6.5% increase in the index, the Toronto area was up 5.7%, the Montreal area was up 2.2% and the Fraser Valley in southern British Columbia was up 2.1%.

Regina had the biggest increase among markets measured by the HPI, with a gain of 14.2% from September 2011.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 49% in September 2012, remaining near the midpoint of a balanced market.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60%, a little less than two thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in September.

Source: Canadian Press

The article below by Scott Simpson appeared in yesterday’s Vancouver Sun regarding the reasons behind Metro Vancouver’s home sales drop.

Personally, I don’t agree with Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at SFU, who is quoted as saying that real estate prices in Metro Vancouver are comparable to New York City. According to StreetEasy, current median prices for condos in downtown New York, ie. Manhattan, are US $639,500 (Cdn $624,000) for studios, US $885,000 (Cdn $864,000) for 1 beds, and US 1.75-million (Cdn 1.708-million) for 2 beds.

That’s way more than the cost of similar sized apartments in Vancouver.

Every time there’s an increase or decrease in listings, sales, or prices, it makes news. Real estate has always been a cyclical game. Prices will never keep on increasing, there will be corrections along the way, but in Vancouver, barring any natural catastrophe, if you buy a home now, it should be worth more in 10, 20, 30 years time.

Vancouver is a city with limits. Ocean, mountains and the ALR limit the amount of available land. With increasing demand and a finite amount of land, real estate prices will naturally rise over time. It’s supply and demand 101, and real estate is a commodity in demand.

Anyway – here’s the article:

It’s down, but not out.

To one expert observer, last month’s 32-per-cent drop in year-over-year home sales in Metro Vancouver looks more like a cyclical trend than a harbinger of a bursting bubble in the Metro Vancouver housing market.

Data released this week by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver indicated that sales volumes fell significantly in September compared to the same month in 2011 – 1,516 properties last month compared to 2,246 in September 2011.

Prices haven’t followed the sales volume trend. The real estate board reported that the composite benchmark price fell 0.8 per cent compared to September 2011, and is down 2.3 per cent in the last three months.

Tsur Somerville, who holds the Real Estate Foundation of BC Professorship in Real Estate Finance at the University of B.C., says the trends fall within the normal cycle.

The Metro market isn’t as popular as it was a year ago when the 2010 Winter Olympic spotlight was still warm.

“Sales started being lower year-on-year last November. I want to see whether that (trend) accelerates or not before I start saying that things are much worse than we were thinking about,” Somerville said in an interview.

“People aren’t standing in line overnight at every condo centre, and it’s not a sure thing. There are (housing construction) projects that are struggling and there are projects that are doing well. It doesn’t look exuberant but it looks pretty normal.”

Stats from the real estate board indicate that it’s taking a few days longer to sell a house, compared to last year.

Average time on the market for a house sold in September 2012 was 53 days, compared to 52 in September 2011.

Houses sold in August 2012 after an average 57 days compared to 48 days a year earlier.

Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University, has a different take on the sales trend.

He thinks Metro Vancouver single-family home sales prices are substantially lower than what the real estate board’s benchmark number indicates.

“The indices are down only slightly, but this is misleading,” Pavlov said in an email. “In an up market everything sells, good and bad. In a down market, only the best properties sell. So it takes a while for transaction-based indices to reflect the true decline in prices.

“My casual observation of single-family homes (land value only) in Kits(ilano) suggests 10 to 15 per cent declines already, with a lot more likely to come.

“New mortgage rules and troubles in China certainly play their role. But more importantly, the Vancouver market has been substantially over-valued relative to other North American markets for a while now.”

Pavlov said real estate prices in Metro Vancouver are now higher than San Francisco — the most robust regional economy in the world thanks to Silicon Valley — and are “just about comparable to New York City.”

In spite of that, rents are half as high, and incomes for the same occupation are only a half to two-thirds as high. On top of that, the ability of U.S. taxpayers to deduct mortgage interest expense means its “far more expensive to own property in Canada relative to the U.S.”

“So there is no long-term reason for price-to-rent ratio in Vancouver to be higher than that of other highly desirable markets,” Pavlov wrote.

He also pointed to “competition among cities for people and investments” as an adverse factor for Vancouver.

Real estate marketer Cam Good noted that Metro has fewer offshore investors and immigrants looking to get into the market compared to a year ago — and he believes that’s having an overall effect on sales and prices.

“The fact is that the shine has gone off Canada a little bit since we closed our investor immigration program,” Good said. “We are seeing through our business in Hong Kong and the U.S. more demand for the U.S.

He said the U.S. investor immigration program, called EB-5, is considered a better option for wealthy immigrants.

“The easiest way for Chinese to immigrate into Canada was by depositing $800,000 with our governments for five-and-a-half years. They can’t do that any more.

“We’re still, luckily, experiencing the follow-through on prior commitments — kids coming to school, other family members already here. But in terms of the new people coming over, there is definitely less.”

Nonetheless, he said some Metro markets are still strong. He pointed to Coquitlam, along the Evergreen Line light-rail transit corridor, as an area that’s attracting interest.

Canada’s housing market appears to be cooling across the board in the face of tighter mortgage rules that affect many first-time buyers of modest means, a new analysis from the Conference Board shows.

The think-tank’s snapshot of resales for August shows a widespread decline in sales of existing homes, with 21 of 28 metropolitan markets registering a drop from July, and 16 of the markets showing a falloff of five per cent or more.

As well, listings fell in 17 of the 28 markets, an indication that owners were reluctant to place their homes for sale due to soft conditions.

Senior economist Robin Wiebe of the Conference Board said there was evidence of cooling in some markets — particularly Vancouver and Victoria — before the new rules went into effect July 9. But the new data shows the slowdown has spread to most markets and from coast to coast.

“When you see sales down in three-quarters of the market, that means it’s pretty widespread,” he said. “It’s knocked down previously high-flying markets like Regina and Saskatoon down a peg. Vancouver had been showing signs of cooling, now it’s spread out into the Fraser Valley.”

At the time Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced a maximum amortization period for mortgages would be reduced to 25 years from 30 years, the government estimated it would increase monthly payments by $184 on a $350,000 mortgage.

It had been the fourth time Flaherty tightened mortgage requirements in four years, but the July measure was regarded as the one likely to be the most effective.

While sales and prices were only temporarily sidetracked by the previous announcements, only to recover a few months later, this might “be the one that broke the camel’s back,” said Wiebe.

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that sales of existing homes fell 5.8% in August from July, and were down 8.9 per cent from August 2011.

Still, the latest data shows that while sales and listings are down, prices appear to be holding steady.

The report found prices fell in only nine of the 28 markets in August from the previous month. Compared to last August, prices were up in 25 markets.

Economists have generally been forecasting a correction of between 10 and 25% in prices over the next two or three years. Vancouver, which had for years been Canada’s hottest market, has seen a tumble of about 30 per cent in resale homes.

But Wiebe is not so sure the correction will be as severe as many predict, or that Vancouver’s market is as cold as the numbers suggest.

He notes that Vancouver’s average home prices are skewed by the number of high-end properties sold — many to investors from China. Both the meteoric rise and current decline are “overstated,” he said.

Homes in the Toronto area, Canada’s largest market, are also likely to retain their value, he said, because the economy in the city remains healthy and the greater metropolitan area continues to experience strong population growth.

Source: Julian Beltrame, Canadian Press

Vancouver’s red hot housing market has taken on a distinctive fall chill, which has many would be buyers and sellers sitting on the fence right now.

Christine Jassen and her partner are looking to cash in on their biggest asset by selling their 52-year-old ranch home on Vancouver’s tony west side for just over $1.9 million.

“I’m in my 50s; it would be wonderful to have an account full of a few hundred thousand dollars, absolutely.”

But while last year this home would have likely seen multiple offers, it’s now been on the market for 130 days with no takers. It’s even had a price reduction.

Realtor Lorne Goldman, who specializes in real estate on Vancouver’s west side, says he’s seen the price of some listings drop by 10 per cent recently.

“I think buyers are hoping ‘the bubble’s going to burst, the bubble’s going to burst,” but you know, people have so much equity in their houses, it’s gone up so much, nobody’s really forced to sell,” he told CTV’s Steele on Your Side.

But there are also lots of ‘house rich, cash poor’ residents in Metro Vancouver whose yearly property taxes have soared beyond their ability to pay – seniors on a fixed income who bought properties years ago before the prices skyrocketed.

Blair Mantin, bankruptcy trustee at Sands & Associates, says seniors are the fastest growing segment of people he sees who are in financial trouble.

He calls them the grandpa debtor: “We deal with people when they’re in a situation where they can no longer pay their bills and need to take some steps, whether that’s a payment plan, or to sign themselves into bankruptcy,” Mantin said.

Seniors are less likely to be able to pay off debt because they can’t count on their income going up.

“Once they’re on a fixed income it’s pretty tough to chisel away when you’re only able to make the minimum payments,” he said.

Many homeowners in high-end neighbourhoods are looking for relief.

This year, 31,291 B.C. residents over the age of 55 have registered to defer their property taxes. Of those cash-strapped homeowners, 3,000 are in the city of Vancouver.

Source: Darcy Wintonyk and Lynda Steele, CTV British Columbia

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The Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have cooled rapidly in the wake of Ottawa’s latest bid to stop a bubble, with many first-time buyers knocked out of the running.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty put the July 9th changes into effect to curb growing mortgage debt levels and take some steam out of house prices. Among other things, the new rules cut the maximum length of insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.

The changes have sparked a debate in Canada. Some industry players and economists worry that the impact will be so widespread and long-lasting that they want Mr. Flaherty to consider rolling some of them back. But with prices that some still deem overvalued and new fears over consumer debt, others say the changes aren’t enough and must be followed by a hike in rates.

Among the latter is Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander, who estimates that national home prices are 10 to 15 per cent too high.

He released a report last Thursday predicting the July changes will shave three percentage points off prices and five points off sales by next year.

“Our models suggest that had the government not tightened lending mortgage rules between 2008 and 2011, the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio would have reached 160 per cent this year – the level that households in the U.S. and U.K reached before sending their economies and housing markets into a tailspin,” Mr. Alexander wrote.

While debt burdens are lower than they would have been, they’re still at troubling levels. Moody’s Analytics said in a separate report that economic headwinds will increasingly cause consumers to struggle with their debt loads over the next few years.

And although the mortgage insurance rule changes have curbed house sales and debt levels somewhat, the impact on prices has been relatively fleeting, Mr. Alexander said. Without rate increases, consumers still have a strong incentive to take out large mortgages, fuelling overvalued prices, he argues.

The impact of the changes is predominantly being felt by first-time home buyers because they are typically the ones who require mortgage insurance. Insurance is mandatory in Canada for borrowers who have a down payment of less than 20 per cent, which has traditionally been about 35 to 40 per cent of the market.

Brian Hurley, the CEO of Genworth Canada, the second-largest mortgage insurer, said business slowed in August as a result of the rule changes. He would like Ottawa to revisit the rules later this year, and consider reversing some of the changes.

“These are pretty dramatic changes, and I think they’re getting close to the tipping point,” he said in a recent interview. “We see really qualified first-time home buyers with very high credit scores now not meeting the bar because they can’t afford a 25-year amortization. These people should be getting a home.”

Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, approves of most of the rule changes, but said there is a risk that they are being overdone to compensate for ultra-low mortgage rates.

“I wonder if the drop from 30 to 25 years amortization might be regretted in a decade when interest rates have normalized and 25-year-olds are being told they cannot make mortgage payments past the age of 50, even though they expect to work until 65,” he said in an e-mail.

Traditionally, the banks have applied mortgage insurance rule changes to all mortgages – even those with large down payments that don’t require insurance. But that hasn’t been the case this time, Mr. Alexander said.

“The banks are basically not applying the 25-year limit to the non-high-ratio mortgages,” he said in an interview. “That’s one of the reasons why the mortgage insurance rule changes had a more muted impact on the market, because really the segment that’s being significantly hit is the first-time buyers.”

Jim Murphy, the CEO of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, said that while Mr. Alexander’s prediction that the changes will dent sales by five percentage points could be correct, the impact on the insured portion of the market appears to be more like 15 per cent. “It’s having a bigger impact on first-time buyers,” he said.

On Thursday, the Toronto Real Estate Board said sales of existing homes in the country’s most populous city fell almost 12.5 per cent in August from a year ago. But the average price rose by almost 6.5 per cent, to $479,095.

One day earlier, Vancouver’s real estate board said August sales were the second-lowest level for that month since 1998, while the average price of a home in the Greater Vancouver Area was down 0.5 per cent from a year ago.

Source: Tara Perkins, Globe and Mail

The average price of homes sold in B.C. is forecast to fall 7.8 per cent this year, but that doesn’t mean the price of a typical home will drop, the B.C. Real Estate Association’s chief economist Cameron Muir said Thursday.

The average Multiple Listings Service price is down and will continue to fall because fewer single-family homes in tony neighbourhoods are selling, while more less-expensive homes are selling, Muir said, adding that there has been a noticeable lull in demand for single-family homes in Vancouver since January of this year.

As well as calling for a drop in average prices, the BCREA’s third-quarter housing forecast calls for a drop of four per cent in the number of homes sold in B.C. this year offset by an increase of 7.5 per cent next year.

“MLS residential prices are expected to remain relatively stable this year and through 2013, with changes in average price statistics largely the result of a differing mix of home types sold and shifting regional demand patterns,” Muir said, adding that the lull in demand is likely caused by some advance buying in 2011, poor job growth in 2011 and tighter mortgage regulations brought in by the government earlier this summer.

The average MLS residential price in B.C. is forecast to drop 7.8 per cent to $517,500 this year, and remain relatively unchanged at $519,000 in 2013.

Source: Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun

The City of Vancouver issued $1.1 billion in building permits during the first six months of 2012, a 40-per-cent increase over 2011 and the first time in five years that construction has topped the billion-dollar figure for the first half of the year.

“This adds to overall economic growth; it means more construction jobs and related spinoff jobs,” said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.

Pastrick said the B.C. economy as a whole has not been performing as well in 2012 as it did in 2011 and the spike in construction activity the Vancouver building permit values represents, will provide a welcome boost to the economy.

“It’s certainly a positive boost, Construction is one of the few sectors that is contributing to the economy in a positive way,” he said.

The city said in a news release Thursday that residential, commercial, and industrial construction has gone through a “major rebound,” marking the first time since the 2008 recession that values have surpassed the billion-dollar mark.

According to the city, construction activity added 6,000 new direct and spinoff jobs in Vancouver during the six-month period.

Mayor Gregor Robertson said it is the first time construction values have exceeded pre-recession levels.

The last time more than a billion dollars in permits was issued was the first half of 2007, when the figure hit $1.58 billion.

Adrien Byrne, communications manager for the Urban Development Institute said the spike in permits show that the construction sector in Vancouver is healthy. It should translate into better prices for condominium units.

“Basically, there is a lot of supply coming on in the market. It shows a healthy market,” he said.

Byrne said the UDI is working closely with the city to reduce red-tape and planning hurdles.

“But that’s not the only thing. The market is getting progressively more affordable, which is making some projects a lot more viable than they might have been in the past. And that is supporting growth and development.”

“Developers are sharpening their pencils to be more competitive than the developer across the street. And the winner out of this is the consumer and the homebuyer.”

Key developments that contributed to the 2012 increase include a 22-storey residential building at 999 Seymour valued at $24.2 million and the 36-storey MNP Tower at 1021 West Hastings valued at $75 million.

“These numbers reflect the importance to the economy and to job creation that the development industry has. What we need is for these kind of numbers to continue,” Byrne said.

Commercial and industrial construction have also rebounded. During the first six months of the year, permits were issued for more than one million square feet of non-residential space, up dramatically from the 160,000 square feet that was permitted during the first six months of 2011.

Source: Gordon Hamilton, Vancouver Sun