A Middle Eastern royal’s purchase in May of the penthouse suite and unit below it at Vancouver’s five-star Fairmont Pacific Rim hotel for $40 million was the most expensive condominium purchase in Canada.

The hotel is in Coal Harbor, a community in Vancouver West, one of Canada’s most expensive home-buying areas. The property is one block north of a street that residents in the 19th century called Blueblood Alley for its wealthy mansion-owners.

“Vancouver has been fuelled tremendously in the last couple of years by high-end wealthy Chinese and Hong Kong buyers,” Malcolm Hasman, the luxury real estate agent who brokered the sale of the Fairmont penthouse unit to the Middle Eastern client, said in a Sept. 16 phone interview. This year probably will be Hasman’s third-highest in sales, after 2012 and 2007, with more than $200 million in luxury real estate sold, he said.

“There’s more money around today than there’s ever been in the high-end market. And where’s it coming in from? The Middle East, China, Asia.”

The oceanfront apartment was also among about 131,324 house and condo transactions in the past three months, up 6.1% from the same period a year earlier and defying the predictions of the Toronto Real Estate Board and the Bank of Montreal that the market is cooling. Analysts and investors including Bank of Nova Scotia and Sun Life Financial Inc. now say it represents the excesses of a market that may be peaking.

“I’m not bullish on Canadian housing,” said Stephen Groff, who helps oversee $7 billion in assets at Cambridge Global Asset Management unit of CI Investments Inc., in a Sept. 13 interview. “It’s just people seeing rates starting to go up and they rush to get the deal done. It isn’t indicative of an improving market.”

The sales pop, driven by wealthy foreign investors and Canadians jumping into the market before expected mortgage rate increases, is at odds with Canada’s sluggish growth. Fuelled by consumers carrying record levels of personal debt and a high unemployment rate, there’s growing concern that the housing decline when it comes will be harder than the “soft landing” predicted by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and Scotiabank Chief Executive Officer Richard Waugh.

Purchases of multimillion-dollar luxury properties on the west coast and condo units in Toronto’s 260 towers helped drive debt-to-household income to a record level in the second quarter. Mortgage borrowing rose 1.7% to $1.11 trillion, according to Statistics Canada, and debt such as mortgages and credit cards increased to 163.4% of disposable income, compared with a revised 162.1% in the prior three-month period. That’s among the highest in the world and compares with 91.9% in the U.S., down from a record 112.7% in 2009.

Home buying slowed last year after regulators tightened borrowing qualification standards. It has picked up again as consumers take advantage of historically low mortgage rates.

The government shortened amortizations in July 2012 to 25 years from 30 years as benchmark interest rates continue to be anchored at 1% in the longest pause since the 1950s. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions also introduced tougher standards for lenders.

The result of the efforts was short-lived. In August last year, home sales slipped 14% across the country led by Vancouver’s 31% dip, according to data from local real estate boards. The total values of August, 2012 purchases was 24% lower than this year’s $8.2 billion.

In comparison, Toronto residential real estate sales last month rose 21% from a year ago, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board, or TREB, and Vancouver existing home sales surged 53%, said that city’s board.

Source: Katia Dmitrieva, Bloomberg News

Sales of single-family homes over $1 million were up 65 per cent in the first half of 2013, up from the last half of 2012.

According to the report, Calgary was the only Canadian city to surpass Vancouver, with sales up 67 per cent in the same category, as reflected in the recent Top Tier Real Estate Report. Luxury condo sales over $1 million were up in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto, compared to the last half of 2012, and spent fewer days on the market.

“We feel confident that Canada’s largest urban centres remain in exceptional positions heading into fall, with healthy market fundamentals from coast to coast,” says Ross McCredie, president and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

Foreign buyers make up approximately 40 per cent of luxury single-family home buyers in Vancouver, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top Tier Trends study (April 2013). This trend is expected to continue with China remaining the top market influencer, followed by Iran and the United States.

“A lot of people have this perception that people are getting off an Air China flight and are buying these million-dollar properties and that is an incredibly rare event. What you are seeing is second or third generation Chinese,” says McCredie. “That’s been a trend that has gone on for a long period of time and it’s going to continue in the Vancouver marketplace.”

Another trend that has continued in Vancouver is parents buying condos for their children. According to McCredie, the transfer of wealth between generations in Canada is unprecedented.

“For a young family trying to start out in Vancouver, there is almost no chance that they could do it on their own,” he says.

The report also attributes an uptake in sales to a steadied political and economic environment, following May’s provincial election. Many Sotheby’s clients were worried a change of government would not be positive for the province’s economy, he says.

While Vancouver’s high-end real estate is up in the first half of 2013 compared to the last half of 2012, condo sales 2013 were down by 20 per cent compared to the first half of 2012. McCredie attributes this to a couple of high-profile projects that were deeply discounted last year, spooking potential buyers. Talk of the real estate market being overheated didn’t alleviate buyers’ worries.

McCredie is confident that sales will continue to grow this year and says that there isn’t anything worrying the real estate industry at this point in time. In fact, he believes that Canada has one of the healthiest real estate markets in the world.

“When you look at the Canadian real estate fundamentals it’s one of the healthiest real estate markets in the world,” he said. “All Canadian cities are growing and we have very low vacancy rates in almost all of our cities. So when you have all those different dynamics, it speaks to a healthy market.”

Source: Nicole Clark, BC Business

Home sales in two of Canada’s largest cities continued their surge in August from a year earlier.

Sales in Toronto, the largest market, rose 21% from August last year to 7,569 units, the Toronto Real Estate Board said in a statement Thursday, with average prices gaining 5.4%. Vancouver existing home sales rose 52%, that city’s real estate board said Wednesday.

Housing-market data are showing few signs of a hard landing after warnings from economists and policy makers that a bubble may have been forming. Buyers have adjusted to tighter mortgage rules imposed last year, according to Diane Usher, president of the Toronto realtor group.

“Many households have accounted for the added costs brought on by stricter mortgage lending guidelines and have reactivated their search for a home,” User said in today’s statement.

Other regions and cities recording double-digit sales gains in August include Victoria and the Fraser Valley areas of British Columbia, and Calgary.

The average price of a home sold in Toronto was $503,094 in August, the Toronto realtors group said Thursday.

There are signs the country’s housing market may be losing some steam. Existing home sales recorded their smallest monthly gain in five months in July, the Canadian real estate association said Aug. 15. Banks including Royal Bank and Toronto-Dominion, the two largest lenders, also have raised mortgage rates in recent weeks to reflect higher yields in the bond market.

The Canadian Real Estate Association publishes aggregated national data around the middle of each month.

Source: Theophilos Argitis, Bloomberg News

Greater Vancouver home sales roared ahead 52 per cent last month, raising the prospect of a new phase of stability in Canada’s most expensive housing market.

The number of properties sold on the Multiple Listing Service reached 2,514 in August, up from 1,689 sales in the same month a year earlier, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Wednesday. The increased activity marks the fourth consecutive month that Greater Vancouver has experienced a year-over-year gain in monthly sales, following a 19-month slump in volume.

The rebound is a sign that fears of a possible housing market crash in the Vancouver region appear overblown.

Greater Vancouver’s housing market is gradually on the mend after the 19-month decline in year-over-year resale volume from October, 2011, to April, 2013, said Tsur Somerville, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.

Some buyers in August signed up in advance for mortgages before rates crept up, but interest rates remain relatively low, Prof. Somerville said. “Trying to time the market is really hard,” he said. “I’m not expecting any kind of raging growth market in Vancouver housing. We’re in an environment of a perception of more hikes in interest rates coming and the economy isn’t that strong.”

The benchmark MLS price index in Greater Vancouver for single-family detached homes, condos and townhouses was $601,500 in August, down 1.3 per cent from the same month in 2012. Since January, however, the price index has risen 2.3 per cent.

Dustin Strong, 34, a territory manager in Vancouver for a food distributor, is looking to buy a home with his girlfriend, Sarah. “We’re patiently waiting and watching,” he said. “Prices have been overheated, and you weren’t getting good value for the money. But I don’t think a crash would be a good thing because that would have catastrophic consequences for the economy.”

Mr. Strong said he is being realistic about what is attainable, so a townhouse is on the shopping list. Greater Vancouver’s price index, which strips out the most expensive properties, was $923,700 for a single-family detached home in August, compared with $457,000 for a townhouse and $366,100 for a condo.

“It’s a constant analysis for me,” Mr. Strong said, adding that it would be ideal to have a minimum down payment of 10 to 20 per cent of the purchase price.

While buyers rushed back into Greater Vancouver’s housing market, the increased sales came after a weak period in the summer of 2012. In July last year, the federal government reduced the maximum period on government-backed mortgages to 25 years from 30 years. Real estate experts say the change, which knocked some first-time buyers out of the market, contributed to the slowdown in housing sales in Vancouver in August of 2012.

Sales volume last month was still 4.6 per cent below the 10-year average for August.

Board president Sandra Wyant said this summer’s housing market has been much more hectic than it was in 2012, but she doesn’t expect a return to widespread bidding wars. “Buyers and sellers need to recognize that this is an increase in sales. Some buyers might be getting apprehensive that prices are about to surge, but this is a balanced market with stable prices,” Ms. Wyant said.

A measurement closely watched by the real estate industry, known as the sales-to-active-listings ratio, registered 15.7 per cent in Greater Vancouver last month. B.C. real estate agents consider it a balanced market when the ratio ranges from 15 to 20 per cent. It is deemed a buyer’s market below 15 per cent and a seller’s market above 20 per cent in the Vancouver region. There were a total of 16,027 active listings last month, down 8.8 per cent from a year earlier.

In the B.C. Fraser Valley, 1,258 residential properties sold in August, up 17 per cent from same month in 2012. The MLS home price index dipped 0.6 per cent year-over-year in the Fraser Valley, which includes the sprawling and less-expensive Vancouver suburb of Surrey.

Source: Brent Jang, Globe and Mail

The short answer is ‘not yet’.

Just announced today is that the Bank of Canada is holding its main interest rate at one per cent, where it has been since September 2010.

Economists widely expect the central bank to hold its trendsetting rate steady well into next year, so Wednesday’s announcement came as no surprise.

“The bank did precisely what was expected of them today: nothing,” BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to investors.

“If anything, the tone of the statement was slightly more dovish, noting the more moderate global backdrop, less certainty on the output gap and still relatively relaxed on the household debt front.

“The bottom line is that we are still looking at a very long period of inactivity by the bank, and may well be talking about four years of unchanged rates a year from now.”

That wait-and-see approach would appear to suit Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz just fine. He has been on the job since early June and shows no sign of breaking from the monetary policies of his predecessor, Mark Carney, who took up a new post this summer as head of the Bank of England.

“Add it all up and this is a central bank that believes that growth will pick up in 2014 and that will eventually require higher rates, but which is happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for substantial proof such an acceleration is underway before raising rates,” CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said in an investors’ note.

“We still look for the first hike in early 2015, with some risk of a move late in 2014 if there are upside surprises to our forecast.”

In the explanatory note to Wednesday’s announcement, the Bank of Canada said it intends no changes as long as considerable slack remains in the economy, inflation remains muted and household finances continue to improve.

Sluggish exports and business investment have slowed the country’s economic growth, the bank said.

“Uncertain global economic conditions appear to be delaying the anticipated rotation of demand in Canada towards exports and investment.”

To underscore that point, new figures Wednesday from Statistics Canada showed the country’s exports fell to $39.2 billion in July, down 0.6 per cent from the month before.

At the same time, imports grew slightly, to push the country’s merchandise trade deficit with the world to $931 million in July from $460 million in June.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada noted the housing sector has been slightly stronger than anticipated, while household credit has continued to slow and mortgage interest rates are higher, the bank added, all of which point to “a continued constructive evolution of household imbalances.”

The bank also said the global economy has less momentum than anticipated.

“In Europe, there are early signs of a recovery and Japan’s situation remains promising,” it said.

“In a number of emerging market economies, financial volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to growth prospects, although China continues to grow at a solid pace.”

While commodity prices have been relatively stable, the bank says geopolitical tensions — which presumably include the bloody conflict in Syria and the continued unrest in Egypt — are raising the global price of oil.

The bank took a slightly dimmer view than it has previously of short-term economic growth in the United States, said RBC assistant chief economist Dawn Desjardins.

“While today’s statement incorporated a slightly less optimistic view of the near-term outlook for U.S. growth and acknowledged that in turn, a firming in Canadian export and business investment was evolving slower than projected, the main thresholds required for the bank to start to reduce the amount of stimulus remained intact,” she wrote in an investors’ note.

The bank’s next rate announcement is scheduled for Oct. 23.

Source: Steve Rennie, The Canadian Press

Each decade has had its share of questionable home design, from the extensive wood panelling and Harvest Gold appliances of the 1970s to the next decade’s overuse of glass blocks, vertical blinds and country-style decor.

Some of these serve as powerful buyer-repellant; others just ding the price, as people figure in the cost of covering up, ripping out or otherwise correcting these home fashion faux pas.

Shag carpeting

This deep-pile carpeting, named for its shaggy texture, was popular in the 1970s in a bright array of colours, including ‘Apache Flame’ and ‘Arroyo Gold.’

Sure, it was kid-friendly, but it trapped dirt and got matted easily, requiring the regular use of a shag rake to keep it from looking like a dog with mange.

While shag area rugs are now making a minor comeback with hipsters, agents say most buyers recoil at the old wall-to-wall stuff.

Popcorn ceilings

This ceiling treatment was popular between the 1950s and 1980s and was designed to reduce noise and hide imperfections. But this spray-on stucco has become the pariah of interior finishes, spawning a ‘cottage cheese’ removal industry. Agents and designers alike say they have seen far too much of this messy stuff.

What’s worse is that the earliest versions of this finish often contained asbestos fibres, so homeowners should get it tested before they try to scrape it off.

Colourful sinks and toilets

Real-estate agent Michelle Fitzgerald of Century 21 Affiliated in Beloit, Wis., has seen toilets in blue, green and pink. She says tubs are easier to hide from sellers, behind a shower curtain.

But the toilet and sink are front and centre.

‘It brings down the price they are going to offer, because they know they are going to have to fix it,’ Fitzgerald says.

Wood panelling

Big in the 1970s, this homey treatment is best left to vacation cabins, say designers and real-estate agents.

Installed on walls to convey a warm feeling — often paired with the aforementioned shag carpeting — buyers these days consider it dark and hard to deal with.

Mirrors everywhere!

Yes, mirrors do make a room look larger. But when glued across large expanses, they’re downright tacky.

Agents and designers often find themselves ripping out mirrored closet doors, backsplashes and — yuck — bedroom ceilings. We don’t have to tell you why that’s seedy, do we? Think rent-by-the-hour hotel rooms.

Source: Melinda Fulmer, MSN Real Estate

How many times have you driven by “that” house, and wondered what’s inside? Find out on Saturday, September 14, when some of Vancouver’s most creative homeowners, architects and designers are opening their doors to you as part of the 2013 Vancouver Modern Home Tour!

What’s a MODERN home? We’ve scoured the area and had creative homeowners, designers, architects and builders submit some of the most interesting Vancouver residences. We’ve curated them to ensure a well-balanced tour featuring the most cutting-edge contemporary design that takes advantage of the stunning landscape.

Purchase advance tickets for $30 to get into all of the homes on the tour. Advance tickets are on sale until 8:00 pm on Friday, September 13. Day of event tickets will be available at any of the tour properties beginning at 11:00 am on September 14 for $40 each. Advance tickets may be picked up at specified will call locations (3 of the homes on the tour) beginning at 11:00 am on September 14.

Here’s a list of the participating homes.

With property prices on the up in Vancouver, the time when we were wowed by news of million-dollar homes is long gone. However, this Shaughnessy home has just hit the market for $35 million – a figure that does set it apart from the rest.

Listed by Victor Kwan of RE/MAX Select Properties and Amy Lau of Selmak Realty, here is the MLS description (in case you’re tempted …).

A rare opportunity to own both sides of this award winning “Heritage A” Mansion located in 1st Shaughnessy. This exquisite luxurious estate was the home of the former Lt. Governor (Eric Hamber). These two units have never been on the market at the same time. Current owner has connected both for easy access. Units can easily converted back to two independent units (#1 – 4686 sq.ft. /#2 – 7530 sq.ft. combined total of 12,216 sq.ft.). This beautifully restored heritage residence includes formal rooms, 2 wine cellars, oak floors, stained glass windows, gourmet kitchen, oak panelled elevator and art deco parkade. Combined number of 9 bedrooms, 13 bathrooms, 3 kitchens. The secured underground parking spaces makes it easy to just lock and leave the estate.

With increasingly strong sales figures – especially for single detached homes in Toronto and Vancouver – and many experts predicting this momentum will continue into the fall market (despite steadily rising interest rates), a question that many sellers are asking is whether you should be “aggressive” when pricing your home.

A recent article in the Globe and Mail by Ricky Chadha, a broker with Royal LePage Estate Realty in Toronto, addresses this.

In terms of pricing your home “aggressively,” that could mean aggressively low or aggressively high. The decision to go with a higher list price versus a lower one (the latter is usually intended to create a bidding war) depends on several factors. One of the biggest, as is usually the case in real estate, is location.

Last fall, homes in high-demand areas in Toronto like the Beaches, Riverdale, East York, High Park and Leaside had sale price to list price ratios of 100 to 102 per cent. That means they sold for asking or more than asking in the majority of cases.

In contrast, some areas located in the outskirts of the GTA like Durham, York and Peel had a slightly lower ratio for sale price to list price. That said, the percentages were only slightly lower, ranging from 95 to 98 per cent of asking. In real dollars, that could equate anywhere from a few to several thousand less than the list price, depending on the price point of the home.

When advising my clients about how to price their own homes, I always emphasize the importance of not overpricing. Overpricing your home can discourage prospective buyers from even visiting, limiting the exposure that you really need. The more people viewing your home the better!

If you are worried about underpricing and leaving money on the table, don’t worry. In my experience, the market itself always works in dictating fair market value. If you’re in a hot area, a fair and even lower than expected price may even drive a bidding war to your benefit.

It’s the basic principle of supply and demand. If supply is low in your area and demand is high, then it will drive the price up. The opposite holds true as well.

Much depends on timing, and you have to get granular with your timing strategy within your community. Weekly changes to available inventory will have a significant impact on your outcome in an active market.

For example, if there are three houses listed for sale on your street at the same time, you may want to wait and see what happens with them. If you list alongside them, you’ll be competing with all those homes, and odds are that will affect the value others put on your home – usually negatively unless you have a truly star property.

Conversely, if there are no homes listed on your street, but the last home that sold went over asking, it’s a good indication of pent-up demand in your area. With that demand and no or minimal competition, it’s the optimal time to list.

While there are no guarantees in real estate, diligent planning and research can give you an accurate picture of historic trends in your neighbourhood, and an edge in determining your own strategy.

One final piece of advice on pricing: Always take a big step back from the personal attachment you have to your home when determining price. It’s human nature to put more value on your home than may be realistic because of all of the work, money and memories you have vested in it. But prospective buyers and real estate professionals don’t see it that way – they’re looking at it with an objective frame of mind. Any subjectivity they factor in to the perceived value applies to their wants and needs, not yours.

When you’re pricing your home, think like a buyer. Be realistic, do your research and be ready to list at the right time.

A housing crash based on the type of home you have? Is that really possible?

It certainly didn’t happen that way in the early 1990s. When the real estate market crashed in Toronto, the entire housing sector saw prices plunge. Even commercial real estate tanked in the high-interest rate environment.

This time around, many wonder whether a specific type of housing could falter while other categories remain strong. Most eyes are on the condo market in such a scenario.

Toronto – now the largest condominium market in North America – is the epicenter for the concern and yesterday another set of statistics showed that market foundering once again.

“A tale of two markets is exactly what we are dealing with. There are different things happening in each market,” said George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., referring to the high-rise versus low-rise comparison.

His research company just looked at new homes but he says it is a pretty decent proxy for what will happen to the existing homes market down the road.

What is happening is low-rise [detached homes] sales are slowing faster than high-rise sales, yet condo prices are the ones getting hit. RealNet’s price index for a low-rise home reached $645,854 in July, up 5.3% from a year ago, while the high-rise index was $430,930, down 1.6% during the same period. The $214,924 gap between the two is the highest on record.

“It’s a complete inverse out there. A decade ago you had three low-rise choices for one high-rise, now you’ve got three high-rise choices for one low-rise,” says Mr. Carras.

High-rise sales are already falling. July sales were 34% below their 10-year average. Yet as of July 31 there are 256 high-rise developments in the GTA with 66,126 units. By the end of 2013, the market will add 17,000 condos.

In the Greater Toronto Area, provincial government policy, which encouraged intensification, has helped foster the condo market. But it’s not just a Toronto issue — the Vancouver condo market has had the same strength over the past five years.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says single family detached home prices are up 16.8% over the last five years while apartment prices have risen just 0.2% during the same period.

“I don’t know about a crash in one and nothing in another,” said Doug Porter, chief economist with Bank of Montreal, talking about the two different classes of housing.

But clear differences in the market to the point they are going in opposite directions? That’s another story.

“I can definitely see that happening. A lot of the [condo] market in Toronto and to extent some other cities has been driven by geography and government policy. At some point I can see the markets going in two different directions,” said Mr. Porter.

While the last market crash, discounting the brief pullback in 2008, was driven by soaring interest rates, this one could come from oversupply in one segment of the market.

This has already begun in Quebec where the condo market is feeling the impact of collapsing prices and single family homes have managed to stay in positive territory.

Hélène Bégin, senior economist with Desjardins Group, says it comes down to a supply issue which is being felt most acutely in Montreal where 30% of existing home sales come from high-rise condominiums.

“I wouldn’t say there’s been a crash as much as an adjustment of 5% to 10% that will happen in the next year. We are just seeing the beginning of it,” said Ms. Bégin.

She says the market for single family homes has been better in terms of price because it is more balanced without a massive influx of supply.

“Condo construction slowed sharply in the first half of the year which is excellent news for market fundamentals,” she wrote in a recent report.

It’s not only a supply side issue. Ms. Bégin says demand for condos has also been hit harder because people buying in that segment of the market tend to be more marginal buyers impacted by tougher borrowing rules from Ottawa.

Consumers with less than a 20% downpayment borrowing from a financial institution regulated by the Bank Act must get mortgage default insurance. To qualify for those mortgages, Ottawa has said consumers can only amortize a mortgage over 25 years which is down from 30 years in 2012 after being as high as 40 years.

Shorter amortizations mean buyers have higher monthly payments and can borrow less.

Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada Ltd., says the supply of single detached homes is going to keep shrinking.

“There are more and more condos being built in Toronto and Vancouver. They are just a better use of land,” he says.

The key for the condo market might be whether the people buying them, many investors, can rent them out. “If you have a whole lot of empty condos, the developers might bring prices down,” says Mr. Lawby.

But demand still appears strong from renters. Vacancies are rising but Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the latest statistics nationally put the rate at 2.7%, still a tight market to rent in.

And, in Toronto, rental rates are just going up. A report this week from research firm Urbanation said average rents in the city were up 4.1% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

Source: Garry Marr, Financial Post