The median resale price of a home in British Columbia is expected to increase at an accelerating rate over the next three years, according to a new forecast by Central 1 Credit Union.

The median resale price is expected to end this year at $388,000, up about 1.5 per cent following a decline in 2012, Central 1 says.

And while the credit union’s economist Bryan Yu expects that rate of increase to continue through 2014, he predicts bigger increases in the following two years.

“We have revised the provincial pricing outlook higher and expect prices to rise about 1.5 per cent in 2014, 2.5 per cent in 2015 and three per cent in 2016, taking the median price to $415,000,” Yu said in a news release issued this morning.

Central 1’s forecast calls for total home sales to be under 70,000 for 2013, but that should rise about seven per cent to 72,500 in 2014, and hit 84,000 in 2016.

“Although growth is significant, the sales level remains low when adjusted for the population base,” Yu said.

Yu said the volume of home sales will depend on population and economic growth, both forecast to expand at a subdued pace through most of 2014 before accelerating later in the forecast period..

He added that low mortgage rates will continue to support housing demand, but rising rates will eat into affordability.

Source: Vancouver Sun

New data released yesterday from the organization that represents home sellers shows Canada’s housing market continues to hit new highs, with the average price increasing by almost 10 per cent in the last 12 months to $391,085.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said the strong gain was in part because this time a year ago, sales were down in some of the largest housing markets.

When prices in Toronto and Vancouver are stripped out of the equation, the average annual price gain was 4.3 per cent, CREA said.

Aside from prices, the realtor group says the number of homes sold was a little below the peak in September, but higher than the number this time last year and still close to the historical average.

A total of 434,678 homes have traded hands across the country this year, CREA says. That’s about 0.2 per cent higher than last year’s total.

“While there has been a lot of volatility in sales activity from month to month, sales for the year to date are on par with fairly steady levels posted for the same time period in each of the past five years,” CREA’s economist Gregory Klump said.

The average price rose 9.8 per cent compared to a year ago, but actually had dropped on a monthly basis. November’s average price was slightly lower than October’s, $391,820.

“Most housing markets are well balanced, including many large urban centres,” Klump said.

“Housing price gains are always stronger in places where supply is tight relative to demand, such as we’re seeing in Calgary and in parts of southern Ontario including the low-rise market in Toronto.”

Source: CBC News

B.C.’s housing market will remain strong in the coming year as residential real estate sales and average prices nationally have soared to a five-year high, according to a new report by Re/Max.

The Housing Market Outlook 2014, released Wednesday, said improved economic performance combined with historically low interest rates and rising consumer confidence should spark greater gains in 2014, with housing sales and values expected to further appreciate.

The report said the number of homes sold this year is expected to match or exceed 2012 levels in almost two-thirds of markets across the country, led by strong activity in B.C., including Vancouver and Kelowna.

Home buying in B.C. kicked into high-gear in June, led by the Lower Mainland, Kelowna and Victoria. Although there are several factors that are expected to contribute to rising housing values nationally, one of the most pressing is continued construction in Vancouver and Toronto, said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president of Re/Max of Western Canada.

The availability of low-rise homes relative to the population is expected to contract, in favour of vertical growth, and its affordable price point is representative of the future.

“We’re definitely seeing a greater commitment to higher density at a municipal level,” Ash says. “In fact, the trend already underway in Vancouver and Toronto has gained serious momentum in smaller markets where cities are moving to infuse vibrancy into the urban core through mixeduse residential/commercial/retail development. The level of investment is substantial – dovetailing with revitalization efforts currently underway.”

Nationally, an estimated 466,000 homes will change hands in 2013, an increase of three per cent over sales recorded in 2012.

Canadian home sales are expected to climb two per cent to 475,000 units by the end of next year. The average price of a Canadian home is forecast to appreciate four per cent to $380,000 in 2013, up from $363,740 in 2012.

Values are expected to continue to escalate in 2014, rising three per cent to $390,000 by year end, the report said.

Source: Tiffany Crawford, Vancouver Sun

Vancouver city council is proposing increases in property taxes and utility fees for 2014 below the rate of inflation.

The proposed increases, 1.9 per cent for property taxes and one per cent for utilities such as water, sewer and garbage collection, come just before Mayor Gregor Robertson’s Vision Vancouver administration seeks re-election.

The proposal, which is expected to be ratified next Tuesday, would boost the city’s overall operating budget to nearly $1.2 billion, an increase of $29.6 million. Of that, more than $5 million would go toward new priorities, including more money for social inclusion, culture and recreation, Greenest City initiatives, safety and emergency planning and digital services. The rest involves inflation and program adjustments.

The details are contained in a massive 220-page operating and capital plan document the city unleashed on the public after some people, including opposition Coun. George Affleck, complained about the city not being transparent with its budget process.

The new increases, if approved, would see property taxes for a residential property worth $1 million go up by $36, and utility fees another $29.

Vision Vancouver Coun. Raymond Louie, the chair of the city’s finance and services committee, said the proposed increase is a bargain compared to proposed tax increases in other Metro Vancouver municipalities. Surrey will raise its property tax rates by 2.9 per cent in 2014.

Last year Vancouver was the city with the second-smallest tax increase in Metro, 1.36 per cent, behind West Vancouver.

Louie credited the Vancouver Services Review Program, which has identified $53 million in unnecessary programs and expenditures, for allowing the city to keep tax increases low.

Source: Jeff Lee, Vancouver Sun

Good news for homeowners and buyers as the Bank of Canada has just announced that it will hold its key interest rate steady but sounded a touch more dovish in its outlook, saying the risks of undesirably weak inflation appeared greater than they did six weeks ago.

The central bank stunned markets in October by abandoning 18 months of signaling that rate hikes were on the horizon. But it made clear at the time it was just as likely to raise rates as to lower them as it was caught between excessive household debt on one hand and below-target inflation on the other.

The bank’s statement today showed it was now increasingly concerned about possible disinflation after the inflation rate dropped to 0.7 percent in October. It added, however, that the balance of risks remained within the range of possible scenarios it identified in October.

“The risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed, while the downside risks to inflation appear to be greater,” it said.

“Weighing these considerations, the bank judges that the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate …,” it said.

The Canadian dollar briefly weakened after the statement to C$1.0689 to the U.S. dollar, compared with C$1.0663 an hour earlier.

The bank has kept its overnight rate target at 1 percent since September 2010, following three successive hikes that year as Canada pulled out of a relatively mild recession.

None of 32 analysts polled by Reuters last week had expected any rate move on Wednesday, but many market players were nonetheless bracing for the possibility that the bank would somehow introduce more dovish language without signaling actual rate cuts.

The median forecast in that poll was for the bank to start raising rates in the second quarter of 2015.

Source: Reuters

Everyone’s dream home is just the right size, in the perfect neighbourhood, with exactly the features and amenities they had in mind. In reality, every home, even a brand-new one, will have flaws. The question is, are they reasonable issues or signs of an impending disaster?

1. Put Safety First

Anything that could be a safety issue is worth looking into. Investigating a home’s electrical system, for example, is crucial. Insurance companies don’t like knob-and-tube wiring (found in homes dating back about 50 years), which they label a fire hazard. The system must often be upgraded within 30 days of closing in order to get insurance, and it’s a messy job that starts at about $5,000 per storey. Also problematic are homes from six or more decades ago that have only 60-amp electrical service, which isn’t enough to support today’s appliances. That means new masks, new wiring and a new electrical meter and panel.

2. Check The Water System

Water is another key component that merits a thorough check. After making sure the basic functions of their taps and toilet work, buyers should get documents from the seller that prove the water system is legal and has been inspected, and that all renovations have been done with a permit. Otherwise, their home insurance won’t cover anything that goes wrong with those renos.

3. Look Out For Mould

Watch for evidence of mould in a prospective purchase, especially if you live in British Columbia. The No. 1 issue in Okanagan real estate for the past 10 years has been grow ops – it can cost $30,000, $50,000 or more to rehabilitate a home, says one expert. Mould – which can also be caused by flooding and leaks – can affect air quality and cause respiratory problems. Even after a former grow op is brought back up to bylaw standards, homeowners need to make sure they have papers to prove it. Otherwise, when it comes time, reselling will be a major headache.

Mould and many other more serious problems, such as asbestos, aren’t technically covered by a home inspector’s mandate or insurance. An experienced inspector will share his suspicions, then pass clients on to an expert to confirm those suspicions and suggest options. A savvy real estate agent might be able to negotiate with the seller to have the cost of a mould inspection subtracted from the purchase price.

4. Ensure A Sturdy Foundation

Foundation settlement is also a danger. Caused by extreme moisture changes, weak soil or poor drainage, it results in wall cracks that threaten the house’s structural integrity. Homes can end up needing extensive foundation upgrades to repair. It can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to fix, and soil settlement due to underground streams can make already pricey homes staggeringly expensive.

Source: Denise Balkissoon, Reader’s Digest

Canada’s housing market is not in a bubble and not likely to suffer a sudden and sharp correction in prices unless there is another major global shock to the economy, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said Wednesday.

The central banker, testifying before the Senate banking committee on his latest economic outlook, said he believes the most likely scenario is a soft landing where home prices stabilize, although he acknowledged that an imbalance in the market and high household debt remain key risks.

Poloz used the testimony to pointedly disagree with a couple of forecasting organizations that weighed in this week on the Canadian situation — the Fitch Rating service that judged Canada’s housing market as 21 per cent overpriced, and an OECD recommendation that he start raising interest rates in a year’s time.

“Our judgment is (the housing market) is a situation that is improving, this is not a bubble that exists here that would have to be corrected,” he said. “If there is a disturbance from outside our country that’s another analysis.”

Poloz said most of the fundamentals surrounding the housing market appear headed in the right direction. The prospects for the economy is improving, he noted, which should create more jobs.

As well, he said banks are now demanding higher credit scores from new borrowers and added that he does not believe there has been serious overbuilding in the housing market.

“It looks expensive,” he said of home prices. “But which markets are expensive? Well those markets have been expensive my whole life,”he said, noting that Toronto and Vancouver both absorb high rates of immigration.

Asked to put odds on his soft landing scenario, Poloz said he would place it in the 60-to-80 per cent probability range.

Source: Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

Winter’s coming, and with it, plunging temperatures and shorter days that make you want to curl up and relax, warm and cosy by the fire. As the coldness looms and you prepare to pump the heat, it’s important to protect your home from potential damage and address heat and energy leaks. These seven simple tasks will help you stay warm, safe and energy-conscious this winter.

1. Prepare your hearth for fire

Before getting chestnuts ready for the roasting, get your fireplace set for the fire. Grab a flashlight and look inside for build-up, bird’s nests or obvious cracks. From the outside, check for broken bricks and crumbling mortar. Ensure that your damper opens and closes and seals tightly. Clean out the ashes and remember that in addition to these steps, you should have your chimney professionally cleaned every other year (more often if you burn a lot of fires). Stock up on wood and kindling, and you’re ready for a comfy, cosy season by the fire.

2. Seal the windows

Seal drafty windows to keep heat in and energy bills low with one (or both) of these two simple tasks. First, caulk the cracks. Sold in temporary or permanent form, caulking is inexpensive and easy to apply. Second, cover your windows in a thin plastic film (available at any hardware store) and tape it down with waterproof double-sided tape, heating the edges with a hair dryer and pressing the protective layer into place. When it gets warmer outside, simply peel the film off, open the window, and let the sun shine in.

3. Clear out the gutters

Clogged gutters block the drainage of rain and melting snow, resulting in household leaks and damage to landscape and foundation. As fall sheds its last leaves, grab a ladder, a garbage bag, some rubber gloves and dig in. Remove everything, from twigs to leaves to caked-on dirt. Check that the downpipes are clear of obstruction and then ensure the entire system is un-clogged and leak-free by running water through it.

4. Prepare for winter storms

Don’t let a blizzard take you by storm―always have a fully-stocked emergency kit at hand. Include batteries, a flashlight, candles, matches and a lighter; warm clothes and blankets; a battery-powered radio; non-perishable food items and water (two litres per adult per day); a first-aid kit and specialty products like medicine, baby formula and pet food (if necessary). Store at least three days’ worth of supplies for everyone in your household.

5. Don’t forget about heating maintenance

Is your heating system ready to weather the winter? Have a professional check your heating system and ensure it’s in good working order before you turn it on. Schedule checks for your furnace, venting system and chimney. Don’t forget to replace the batteries on smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, in case any of your heating systems are overworking.

6. Pad your pipes

A small frozen pipe can cause big household damage if it bursts, so pad your pipes to prevent floods. Grab some tubular pipe insulation sleeves from your local hardware store and set to task covering exposed pipes in unheated areas, such as a basement, attic, crawl space or cabinet. The pipe sleeves are easy to apply and can be cut to fit. Cover all exposed parts, including bends and joints. Finally, seal the seams with duct tape. With that simple task, you’re not only preventing considerable water damage, but also conserving energy.

7. Clean out your garage

Like your traditional spring cleaning, consider scheduling a traditional ‘fall cleaning’ of your garage. Organize the remains of your summer projects and clean and store gardening tools. Like a seasonal turning of your closet, push what you won’t be needing ― the lawn-mower, hedge trimmer, rakes and summer toys – to the back and bring any winter necessities ― shovels, snow blowers, skis and sleds ― to the front. Set out salt and gravel containers, and you’ll thank yourself the first time the ice hits.

Source: Sara Cation, Style at Home

The big rebound in Lower Mainland real estate sales appears to be over, leaving markets floating along with little movement on prices, according to the latest reports from the region’s real estate boards.

In areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, realtors recorded 2,661 sales through the Multiple Listing Service in October, up 38 per cent from the same month a year ago. However, the benchmark price – the average for typical homes sold across the region – settled at $600,700, a half per cent dip from October 2012.

While sales showed a considerable gain from October 2012, the rebound was not quite as strong as in recent months. September, for example, saw home sales bounce 64 per cent higher than the corresponding month in 2012. In August, sales were 53 per cent above the lacklustre month of August 2012.

“Today’s activity is helping to keep us in balanced market territory,” said board president Sandra Wyant, “which means that prices tend to experience minimal fluctuation.”

The board covers Vancouver and most Metro Vancouver areas west of Surrey and Mission.

Sales for October were 2.8 per cent above the 10-year average for October, while new listings – at 4,322 – were two per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

In the Fraser Valley, which includes Surrey, realtors recorded 1,249 sales in October, an increase of 19 per cent from the same month a year ago. The benchmark price across all properties was $482,951, up 2.3 per cent from October of 2012.

“We’ve had a great summer and good early fall, but it’s important to remind everyone of the context,” said Ron Todson, Fraser Valley Board president. “The last four months of 2012 were amongst the slowest for our real estate market in the last 15 years.”

In the Fraser Valley, the rebound has not been as strong. September sales there were 32 per cent higher than September 2012, while August sales were 17 per cent above the year-earlier period. “What we’re witnessing is a return to a balanced residential market indicated by prices remaining unchanged or down slightly compared to a year ago, stable inventory levels and the average length of time to sell a home is about two months,” Todson said.

By category, detached-home sales in the REBGV were up 35 per cent from October a year ago, with the benchmark price of a typical house sold hitting $922,600, down a half per cent from October 2012.

October condo sales in the REBGV rose about 37 per cent from the same month a year ago. The benchmark average price of $365,000 was 0.9 per cent lower than in October 2012.

Townhouse sales in the REBGV rose 47 per cent from the same month a year ago and the benchmark price was $458,000, little changed from October 2012.

In the Fraser Valley, October detached home sales were up about 10 per cent over the same month a year ago, while the benchmark price was $551,400, up marginally from October 2012.

Fraser Valley condo sales were 38 per cent higher than the previous October and the October benchmark condo price was $199,500, down 2.2 per cent.

Fraser Valley townhome sales were up 33 per cent from the previous October. The benchmark townhouse price hit $295,500, down 0.5 per cent.

Source: Derrick Penner, Vancouver Sun

Why does Canada not keep public data on investment ownership in real estate, whether by foreigners or homegrown residents? Douglas Todd of the Vancouver Sun wrote this interesting article in today’s paper:

The question is starting to gain more attention than when some of us in B.C. raised it earlier this year.

With Canadian cities, especially Metro Vancouver, becoming infamous for their unaffordability in regards to real estate, another voice has been added to those urging the federal Conservative government to at least collect data on the influence of investors — foreign and otherwise — on the country’s housing market.

The latest call for property ownership transparency comes on top of recent media reports in Canada that the real estate market of London, England, has become badly distorted by ultra-wealthy foreign owners, referred to as “non-domiciled residents.” The influence of such buyers, including many Russian tycoons, is said to be causing London’s housing prices to “lose touch with reality.”

If that’s what the British media are saying about London, what would they say about Vancouver, which Demographia judges the second most unaffordable city in the world, after Hong Kong.

Here is an excerpt from a new column on the need to collect foreign ownership data, by Toronto business writer David Parkinson. It’s headlined: “Canada’s housing numbers don’t measure up”:

“….a bigger concern are the numbers on investment activity in the housing market, particularly among foreigners. They don’t exist. Last week, some of the country’s top economists raised this issue with federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who has acknowledged that he has no hard data on how much of Canada’s housing boom has been fuelled by investors who are looking to make money as property owners rather than acquire personal residences.

The distinction matters a great deal. A substantial downturn in the housing market – say, one triggered by government policy – would trigger a much bigger exodus of investors than permanent residents, and so the risks to the Canadian economy rise with the proportion of investor money pumping up the market. And yet Mr. Flaherty has been crafting policy aimed at cooling the market without that information. The Office of the Superindentent of Financial Institutions has been talking since mid-2011 about uncovering the amount of foreign investment in Canada’s real estate market – and yet we still have no visibility.

Cleaning up this muddle of inadequate housing data must be made top priority for Canada’s financial and statistical institutions. We can’t keep flying blind.”