Average home sale prices are down due to a decline in the sale of high-end Vancouver homes

October 16th, 2012

A slowdown in real estate sales numbers in Vancouver, particularly in single-family homes worth more than $1 million, dragged down the country’s average home price in September, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

In Metro Vancouver, the average home price was down 3.8 per cent in September from a year earlier, which CREA said skews the national average price, which was up 1.1 per cent. Excluding Vancouver, the national average price was up 3.4 per cent from a year ago.

Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said the drop in Vancouver was caused by fewer really expensive sales this year compared to last year.

“Last year, the average was pitched higher by a whole bunch of high-priced sales, while this year, those sales haven’t recurred so it’s lower. You’ve got one that was stretched last year, and one that’s been shrunk this year by a change in the composition that makes up the average” Klump said. “I like to use the following analogy: If you line the kids up in class from shortest to tallest and take the average height, and then you excuse the 10 tallest kids and recalculate the average, then the average height will have shrunk, but none of the kids have.”

For this reason, average house prices are not the most consistent information to use, Klump said.

“It’s like looking in a funhouse mirror,” Klump said. “It doesn’t really give you a true picture of what’s going on with regard to price, which is why you really want to look at the home price index, which keeps the quality of homes constant over time.”

The Multiple Listing Service home price index is down 0.8 per cent to $606,000 in Vancouver year-over-year in September, while it is up 3.9 per cent nationally.

“Stricter high-ratio mortgage regulation further exacerbated a moderating trend in consumer demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist. “Reducing the maximum amortization from 30 to 25 years had the equivalent impact to affordability as a 100 basis point increase in mortgage interest rates.”

In Metro Vancouver, the dollar volume of sales was down 35.7 per cent in September, year-over-year, figures released Monday by the B.C. Real Estate Association show.

Robyn Adamache, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s senior market analyst for Vancouver, said sales of single family homes are down 29 per cent for the first nine months of 2012 compared to the same period last year, while townhouse sales are down 20 per cent and apartment sales are down 16 per cent.

Although the overall average home price is down seven per cent, single-family home prices are down five per cent on average, while townhouse prices are down one per cent and apartment prices are down three per cent. Because more apartments and fewer houses are selling this year, the decline in average price is larger than the drop in price for any particular property.

Adamache also said there is a shift in sales volume away from very expensive single-family homes in areas such as the west side of Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond and toward more affordable homes in places such as Maple Ridge.

Adamache said sales numbers are expected to remain flat until the middle of 2013, when they are expected to increase, not to the lofty levels seen in 2011, but approaching those levels. She said prices are expected to decline overall this year, with a smaller decline next year.

Muir also said demand is expected to be on the rise.

“An expanding population, strong full-time employment growth and persistent low mortgage interest rates are expected to bolster housing demand in the months ahead,” Muir said.

Sales volume numbers are a lot more volatile than prices, Klump said.

“If you’re not forced to sell at a price you’re not willing to accept, you don’t sell,” Klump said. “If you’re getting offers below what you’re prepared to sell for, you take it off the market.”

Nationally, home sales in September fell 15.1 per cent from a year ago, CREA reported, adding that sales in September were up 2.5 per cent from August — the first month-to-month gain since March.

“While some first-time homebuyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do,” Klump said.

While Vancouver’s home price index was down slightly, Calgary had a 6.5-per-cent increase in the index, the Toronto area was up 5.7 per cent, the Montreal area was up 2.2 per cent and the Fraser Valley was up 2.1 per cent.

Regina had the biggest increase among markets measured by the HPI, with a gain of 14.2 per cent from September 2011.

TD Bank economist Francis Fong said the month-over-month gain only partly offset August’s drop, with sales off their peaks in most markets across the country.

“The Canadian housing market has clearly lost some of its lustre,” Fong wrote in a note to clients.

“That being said, with interest rates remaining sufficiently accommodative, we do not anticipate any precipitous decline in housing activity in the near term. Rather, we expect a gradual unwinding of the imbalance in both sales and prices over the next few years.”

The sales report came as the Conference Board of Canada said that most Canadian cities are facing lower housing starts in the coming years as markets slow, with only 10 of the 28 cities showing positive long-term expectations.

Construction is going strong in Metro Vancouver, with housing starts on pace in September to reach 20,000 units by year’s end, mostly driven by multi-family developments, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported last week.

CREA said Monday there was still a balance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers in September, but conditions have eased.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 49 per cent in September 2012, remaining near the midpoint of a balanced market.

Source: Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun

Canada’s home sales rise for first time since March but still have a long way to go

October 15th, 2012

The Canadian Real Estate Association says there was a slight improvement in the resale housing market last month, although it’s still slower than a year ago — mainly due to a slowdown in Vancouver.

The association said Monday sales in September were up 2.5% from August — the first month-to-month gain since March.

Compared with September 2011, however, the number of deals across the country last month was down 15.1%.

The association said there was still a balance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers in September but conditions have eased.

CREA attributed the slowdown to new rules brought in by Ottawa that make it harder for first-time buyers to qualify for mortgages.

However, other observers have noted that reduced affordability after years of rapid price increases — particularly in some markets such as Vancouver and Toronto — and an uncertain world economy have also dissuaded buyers.

“National activity is likely to remain down from year-ago levels over the fourth quarter of 2012,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“While some first time home buyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do.”

The national average home price was up 1.1% in September from a year earlier.

But the MLS HPI home price index, which also takes into account other factors, showed its smallest gain since May 2011, rising by 3.9% in September.

The association said Vancouver, the country’s most expensive residential real-estate market, skewed the national results.

Excluding that city, the national average price was up 3.4% from a year ago.

The MLS HPI in Vancouver posted a 0.8% decline year-over-year in September. In contrast, Calgary had a 6.5% increase in the index, the Toronto area was up 5.7%, the Montreal area was up 2.2% and the Fraser Valley in southern British Columbia was up 2.1%.

Regina had the biggest increase among markets measured by the HPI, with a gain of 14.2% from September 2011.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 49% in September 2012, remaining near the midpoint of a balanced market.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60%, a little less than two thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in September.

Source: Canadian Press

Find out how to view an open house like a real estate pro

October 12th, 2012

Open Houses are more than just an opportunity to check out your neighbour’s interior decor, or to glean ideas to improve your own home. This recent article by Jill Krasny at Business Insider has some tips to help you find out so much more:

Open houses are a smart way to gauge whether a listing’s catching heat and if it’s worth seeing again in a private showing.

“If you’re just getting started with the process, an open house tour is like a get-out-of-jail-free card,” says Zillow.com real estate expert Brendon DeSimone. “It’s free, you can go because there aren’t restrictions and it’s a great way to learn the market.”

To his mind, the primary thing home shoppers overlook tends to be the most obvious: the crowd. Observing other shoppers is key, he says, as that’s the best way to gauge the market’s response to the home.

“If you like the house, watch the people. Is it packed? Are they hovering around the agent?,” he says. If so and if they’re asking pointed questions as well, you can bet that there’s serious interest and the listing is going to go fast.

Another strategy is to observe the agent, he adds.

“If you go to a house and you like it but no one’s there, maybe there are issues there,” says DeSimone. “You should watch the listing agent’s reactions because he wants to see the response to the house and how crowded it is.”

But don’t miss the opportunity to make small talk with the seller.

“You should ask why he’s selling, nothing rude, just what’s the story,” DeSimone says. “What’s their motivation to sell?” That should give you a feel for the pricing and whether the listing is gathering dust.

Questions like, how many days has the home been on the market?, or Have you lived here for a long time? should get the conversation going. Perhaps there’s a looming job transfer, or the seller is just moving down the street.

“If they’re not motivated you won’t want to waste your time,” says DeSimone. But at least you’ll know where they stand.

Why you shouldn’t panic (or get too excited) when real estate sales dip

October 5th, 2012

The article below by Scott Simpson appeared in yesterday’s Vancouver Sun regarding the reasons behind Metro Vancouver’s home sales drop.

Personally, I don’t agree with Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at SFU, who is quoted as saying that real estate prices in Metro Vancouver are comparable to New York City. According to StreetEasy, current median prices for condos in downtown New York, ie. Manhattan, are US $639,500 (Cdn $624,000) for studios, US $885,000 (Cdn $864,000) for 1 beds, and US 1.75-million (Cdn 1.708-million) for 2 beds.

That’s way more than the cost of similar sized apartments in Vancouver.

Every time there’s an increase or decrease in listings, sales, or prices, it makes news. Real estate has always been a cyclical game. Prices will never keep on increasing, there will be corrections along the way, but in Vancouver, barring any natural catastrophe, if you buy a home now, it should be worth more in 10, 20, 30 years time.

Vancouver is a city with limits. Ocean, mountains and the ALR limit the amount of available land. With increasing demand and a finite amount of land, real estate prices will naturally rise over time. It’s supply and demand 101, and real estate is a commodity in demand.

Anyway – here’s the article:

It’s down, but not out.

To one expert observer, last month’s 32-per-cent drop in year-over-year home sales in Metro Vancouver looks more like a cyclical trend than a harbinger of a bursting bubble in the Metro Vancouver housing market.

Data released this week by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver indicated that sales volumes fell significantly in September compared to the same month in 2011 – 1,516 properties last month compared to 2,246 in September 2011.

Prices haven’t followed the sales volume trend. The real estate board reported that the composite benchmark price fell 0.8 per cent compared to September 2011, and is down 2.3 per cent in the last three months.

Tsur Somerville, who holds the Real Estate Foundation of BC Professorship in Real Estate Finance at the University of B.C., says the trends fall within the normal cycle.

The Metro market isn’t as popular as it was a year ago when the 2010 Winter Olympic spotlight was still warm.

“Sales started being lower year-on-year last November. I want to see whether that (trend) accelerates or not before I start saying that things are much worse than we were thinking about,” Somerville said in an interview.

“People aren’t standing in line overnight at every condo centre, and it’s not a sure thing. There are (housing construction) projects that are struggling and there are projects that are doing well. It doesn’t look exuberant but it looks pretty normal.”

Stats from the real estate board indicate that it’s taking a few days longer to sell a house, compared to last year.

Average time on the market for a house sold in September 2012 was 53 days, compared to 52 in September 2011.

Houses sold in August 2012 after an average 57 days compared to 48 days a year earlier.

Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University, has a different take on the sales trend.

He thinks Metro Vancouver single-family home sales prices are substantially lower than what the real estate board’s benchmark number indicates.

“The indices are down only slightly, but this is misleading,” Pavlov said in an email. “In an up market everything sells, good and bad. In a down market, only the best properties sell. So it takes a while for transaction-based indices to reflect the true decline in prices.

“My casual observation of single-family homes (land value only) in Kits(ilano) suggests 10 to 15 per cent declines already, with a lot more likely to come.

“New mortgage rules and troubles in China certainly play their role. But more importantly, the Vancouver market has been substantially over-valued relative to other North American markets for a while now.”

Pavlov said real estate prices in Metro Vancouver are now higher than San Francisco — the most robust regional economy in the world thanks to Silicon Valley — and are “just about comparable to New York City.”

In spite of that, rents are half as high, and incomes for the same occupation are only a half to two-thirds as high. On top of that, the ability of U.S. taxpayers to deduct mortgage interest expense means its “far more expensive to own property in Canada relative to the U.S.”

“So there is no long-term reason for price-to-rent ratio in Vancouver to be higher than that of other highly desirable markets,” Pavlov wrote.

He also pointed to “competition among cities for people and investments” as an adverse factor for Vancouver.

Real estate marketer Cam Good noted that Metro has fewer offshore investors and immigrants looking to get into the market compared to a year ago — and he believes that’s having an overall effect on sales and prices.

“The fact is that the shine has gone off Canada a little bit since we closed our investor immigration program,” Good said. “We are seeing through our business in Hong Kong and the U.S. more demand for the U.S.

He said the U.S. investor immigration program, called EB-5, is considered a better option for wealthy immigrants.

“The easiest way for Chinese to immigrate into Canada was by depositing $800,000 with our governments for five-and-a-half years. They can’t do that any more.

“We’re still, luckily, experiencing the follow-through on prior commitments — kids coming to school, other family members already here. But in terms of the new people coming over, there is definitely less.”

Nonetheless, he said some Metro markets are still strong. He pointed to Coquitlam, along the Evergreen Line light-rail transit corridor, as an area that’s attracting interest.

Will house prices start to come down across Canada?

September 26th, 2012

Canada’s housing market appears to be cooling across the board in the face of tighter mortgage rules that affect many first-time buyers of modest means, a new analysis from the Conference Board shows.

The think-tank’s snapshot of resales for August shows a widespread decline in sales of existing homes, with 21 of 28 metropolitan markets registering a drop from July, and 16 of the markets showing a falloff of five per cent or more.

As well, listings fell in 17 of the 28 markets, an indication that owners were reluctant to place their homes for sale due to soft conditions.

Senior economist Robin Wiebe of the Conference Board said there was evidence of cooling in some markets — particularly Vancouver and Victoria — before the new rules went into effect July 9. But the new data shows the slowdown has spread to most markets and from coast to coast.

“When you see sales down in three-quarters of the market, that means it’s pretty widespread,” he said. “It’s knocked down previously high-flying markets like Regina and Saskatoon down a peg. Vancouver had been showing signs of cooling, now it’s spread out into the Fraser Valley.”

At the time Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced a maximum amortization period for mortgages would be reduced to 25 years from 30 years, the government estimated it would increase monthly payments by $184 on a $350,000 mortgage.

It had been the fourth time Flaherty tightened mortgage requirements in four years, but the July measure was regarded as the one likely to be the most effective.

While sales and prices were only temporarily sidetracked by the previous announcements, only to recover a few months later, this might “be the one that broke the camel’s back,” said Wiebe.

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that sales of existing homes fell 5.8% in August from July, and were down 8.9 per cent from August 2011.

Still, the latest data shows that while sales and listings are down, prices appear to be holding steady.

The report found prices fell in only nine of the 28 markets in August from the previous month. Compared to last August, prices were up in 25 markets.

Economists have generally been forecasting a correction of between 10 and 25% in prices over the next two or three years. Vancouver, which had for years been Canada’s hottest market, has seen a tumble of about 30 per cent in resale homes.

But Wiebe is not so sure the correction will be as severe as many predict, or that Vancouver’s market is as cold as the numbers suggest.

He notes that Vancouver’s average home prices are skewed by the number of high-end properties sold — many to investors from China. Both the meteoric rise and current decline are “overstated,” he said.

Homes in the Toronto area, Canada’s largest market, are also likely to retain their value, he said, because the economy in the city remains healthy and the greater metropolitan area continues to experience strong population growth.

Source: Julian Beltrame, Canadian Press

Is Vancouver becoming house rich but cash poor?

September 26th, 2012

Vancouver’s red hot housing market has taken on a distinctive fall chill, which has many would be buyers and sellers sitting on the fence right now.

Christine Jassen and her partner are looking to cash in on their biggest asset by selling their 52-year-old ranch home on Vancouver’s tony west side for just over $1.9 million.

“I’m in my 50s; it would be wonderful to have an account full of a few hundred thousand dollars, absolutely.”

But while last year this home would have likely seen multiple offers, it’s now been on the market for 130 days with no takers. It’s even had a price reduction.

Realtor Lorne Goldman, who specializes in real estate on Vancouver’s west side, says he’s seen the price of some listings drop by 10 per cent recently.

“I think buyers are hoping ‘the bubble’s going to burst, the bubble’s going to burst,” but you know, people have so much equity in their houses, it’s gone up so much, nobody’s really forced to sell,” he told CTV’s Steele on Your Side.

But there are also lots of ‘house rich, cash poor’ residents in Metro Vancouver whose yearly property taxes have soared beyond their ability to pay – seniors on a fixed income who bought properties years ago before the prices skyrocketed.

Blair Mantin, bankruptcy trustee at Sands & Associates, says seniors are the fastest growing segment of people he sees who are in financial trouble.

He calls them the grandpa debtor: “We deal with people when they’re in a situation where they can no longer pay their bills and need to take some steps, whether that’s a payment plan, or to sign themselves into bankruptcy,” Mantin said.

Seniors are less likely to be able to pay off debt because they can’t count on their income going up.

“Once they’re on a fixed income it’s pretty tough to chisel away when you’re only able to make the minimum payments,” he said.

Many homeowners in high-end neighbourhoods are looking for relief.

This year, 31,291 B.C. residents over the age of 55 have registered to defer their property taxes. Of those cash-strapped homeowners, 3,000 are in the city of Vancouver.

Source: Darcy Wintonyk and Lynda Steele, CTV British Columbia

CREA adjusts its home sales and price forecast for 2012 and 2013

September 19th, 2012

The Canadian Real Estate Association cut its 2012 and 2013 outlook for home sales and lowered its national average price forecast on Monday as it reported the biggest month-to-month drop in activity in two years.

The association said that tighter regulations on mortgage lending that came into effect in July helped push August homes sales to their largest month-over-month decline since June 2010.

Sales of previously owned Canadian houses and condos have now gone down in five of the past six months.

“While we always caution that housing market trends at the national level can and do run counter to trends in many local markets, the decline in activity in August was definitely the result of much of the country moving in the same direction,” CREA president Wayne Moen said in a statement.

Sales in August slipped 5.8% compared with July and were down 8.9% compared with August 2011.

In its outlook for the year, CREA said Monday that home sales are now forecast to rise by 1.9% to 466,900 units in 2012. That compared with a forecast in June that suggested 475,800 homes would be sold in 2012, up 3.8% from 2011. CREA expects volume will slip by 1.9% to 457,800 units in 2013.

CREA also forecast the national average home price would rise by just 0.6% to $365,000 in 2012 and edge lower by one tenth of one per cent to $364,500 in 2013. The outlook was down from a June forecast that prices would rise by 2.2% to $370,700 in 2012.

TD has suggested that the tighter mortgage rules will shave five percentage points off sales activity and cut prices by three per cent on average during the second half of this year and early 2013.

In the next three years, the bank has said it expects the combination of the tighter rules and anticipated modest increases in interest rates will result in a 10 per cent price correction on homes.

CREA said sales were lower in about two-thirds of all local markets across Canada representing 80% of national activity, with lower monthly sales in almost all large urban centres, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa.

House price sales and price forecast by CREA

House price sales and price forecast by CREA

“The broadly based decline in August sales activity suggests that some buyers may no longer qualify for a mortgage now that amortization periods for high ratio mortgages have been shortened,”said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“As the lynchpin of the housing market, lower first-time buying activity will have downstream effects over the rest of the market. While we expect it will likely take more time for move-up buyers to sell their current home, a few more months of data are needed to gauge the broader impact of recent regulatory changes on Canada’s housing market.”

Ottawa has tightened mortgage rules four times since 2008.

Among the most recent changes, the federal government reduced the maximum amortization terms for government insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.

Source: Craig Wong, Canadian Press

The number of new condo developments being built is increasing

September 13th, 2012

The pace of housing starts picked up August, boosted by big multiple-unit projects in Toronto, even as the Canadian real estate market showed signs of cooling.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Tuesday there were 19,860 actual housing units started in August to set a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 224,900 units for the month, up from 208,000 in July.

The consensus estimate by economists had been for a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 201,000.

“This increase is primarily a reflection of the high level of pre-sales in some of these large multi-unit projects in late 2010 and early 2011, which is in line with job gains at that time,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

“The higher level of starts recorded in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia in August reflect low levels of activity in July rather than an increasing trend that was registered in August. Overall, moderation in housing starts activity is still expected for the remainder of 2012 and 2013.”

TD senior economist Jacques Marcil said the data shows Canadian housing construction remains in high gear and suggested the pace won’t continue.

“The rest of the economy is growing much slower and as a consequence is not likely to be able to support this level of housing supply for much longer,” Marcil warned.

“While recent changes to mortgage insurance rules will likely limit the growth in demand for new homes, low interest rates remain an incentive for buyers to borrow and keep the housing market overvalued.”

Last week, Toronto Real Estate Board reported that sales of existing homes in the Toronto fell 12.5 per cent from last year, although the average price of $479,095 was 6.5 per cent higher.

Meanwhile, the Vancouver board said sales dropped 30.7 per cent in August, while the average price was only 0.5 per cent lower at $609,500.

The drop in sales followed a move by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to reduce the amortization rate on new government insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.

It was the fourth time in as many years the minister has tightened mortgage rules.

CMHC said Tuesday that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 10.2 per cent to 205,900 units in August.

Urban single starts remained relatively unchanged in August at 64,300 units, while multiple urban starts increased by 15.5 per cent to 141,600 units.

August’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 47.5 per cent in Atlantic Canada, by 20.4 per cent in Ontario, by 18.2 per cent in British Columbia and by 1.3 per cent in the Prairies, while they dropped by 9.8 per cent in Quebec.

Stunning Keats Island property for sale with ocean views

September 12th, 2012

This is one of the finest properties on Keats Island – an Irreplaceable Opportunity.

Expansive water views South to Strait of Georgia, North to Howe Sound; this ten-acre property is privately situated on the third highest point of the island. Remote and romantic but with easy year-round access. You’ll never want to leave.

The 2,600-square-foot house is built to the highest quality and newly updated with close to $250,000 spent on interior renovations by an award-winning design team.

High-end finishes and appliances (Hansgrohe, Liebherr integrated fridge/wine cooler, Electrolux ovens), custom-designed kitchen cabinetry and numerous built-ins.

Approx 1,200 sq.ft. of panoramic decks. 30 mins by boat from Horseshoe Bay. 1 mile by water from Gibsons.

For further information, please see Keats Island real estate for sale.

Why first-time homebuyers could struggle in the Canadian market

September 11th, 2012

The Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have cooled rapidly in the wake of Ottawa’s latest bid to stop a bubble, with many first-time buyers knocked out of the running.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty put the July 9th changes into effect to curb growing mortgage debt levels and take some steam out of house prices. Among other things, the new rules cut the maximum length of insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.

The changes have sparked a debate in Canada. Some industry players and economists worry that the impact will be so widespread and long-lasting that they want Mr. Flaherty to consider rolling some of them back. But with prices that some still deem overvalued and new fears over consumer debt, others say the changes aren’t enough and must be followed by a hike in rates.

Among the latter is Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander, who estimates that national home prices are 10 to 15 per cent too high.

He released a report last Thursday predicting the July changes will shave three percentage points off prices and five points off sales by next year.

“Our models suggest that had the government not tightened lending mortgage rules between 2008 and 2011, the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio would have reached 160 per cent this year – the level that households in the U.S. and U.K reached before sending their economies and housing markets into a tailspin,” Mr. Alexander wrote.

While debt burdens are lower than they would have been, they’re still at troubling levels. Moody’s Analytics said in a separate report that economic headwinds will increasingly cause consumers to struggle with their debt loads over the next few years.

And although the mortgage insurance rule changes have curbed house sales and debt levels somewhat, the impact on prices has been relatively fleeting, Mr. Alexander said. Without rate increases, consumers still have a strong incentive to take out large mortgages, fuelling overvalued prices, he argues.

The impact of the changes is predominantly being felt by first-time home buyers because they are typically the ones who require mortgage insurance. Insurance is mandatory in Canada for borrowers who have a down payment of less than 20 per cent, which has traditionally been about 35 to 40 per cent of the market.

Brian Hurley, the CEO of Genworth Canada, the second-largest mortgage insurer, said business slowed in August as a result of the rule changes. He would like Ottawa to revisit the rules later this year, and consider reversing some of the changes.

“These are pretty dramatic changes, and I think they’re getting close to the tipping point,” he said in a recent interview. “We see really qualified first-time home buyers with very high credit scores now not meeting the bar because they can’t afford a 25-year amortization. These people should be getting a home.”

Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, approves of most of the rule changes, but said there is a risk that they are being overdone to compensate for ultra-low mortgage rates.

“I wonder if the drop from 30 to 25 years amortization might be regretted in a decade when interest rates have normalized and 25-year-olds are being told they cannot make mortgage payments past the age of 50, even though they expect to work until 65,” he said in an e-mail.

Traditionally, the banks have applied mortgage insurance rule changes to all mortgages – even those with large down payments that don’t require insurance. But that hasn’t been the case this time, Mr. Alexander said.

“The banks are basically not applying the 25-year limit to the non-high-ratio mortgages,” he said in an interview. “That’s one of the reasons why the mortgage insurance rule changes had a more muted impact on the market, because really the segment that’s being significantly hit is the first-time buyers.”

Jim Murphy, the CEO of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, said that while Mr. Alexander’s prediction that the changes will dent sales by five percentage points could be correct, the impact on the insured portion of the market appears to be more like 15 per cent. “It’s having a bigger impact on first-time buyers,” he said.

On Thursday, the Toronto Real Estate Board said sales of existing homes in the country’s most populous city fell almost 12.5 per cent in August from a year ago. But the average price rose by almost 6.5 per cent, to $479,095.

One day earlier, Vancouver’s real estate board said August sales were the second-lowest level for that month since 1998, while the average price of a home in the Greater Vancouver Area was down 0.5 per cent from a year ago.

Source: Tara Perkins, Globe and Mail


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