Archive for the ‘Vancouver real estate’ Category

The issue of foreign ownership of Canada’s real estate. BestHomesBC’s Nicola Way is interviewed by Business in Vancouver

Monday, March 26th, 2012

Recent conversation around the Kitsilano dinner table turned to – as it almost always seems to do – real estate and the role of foreign buyers in Vancouver.

The older guests decried the runup in prices that makes it almost impossible for their children to buy on the West Side, while the kids (also at the table), looked to their parents as the lender of first resort to help them get into the market.

But what to do about the oft-discussed “foreign buyer” typically tagged as a leading contributor to the pressures that make housing unaffordable? Charge a special tax on offshore buyers, asked one person? Charge a surtax on properties above a certain value, asked another? Or, as this writer chimed in, erhaps we want to introduce the equivalent of a head-tax on foreign investors simply because they’re coming to invest in properties. (Dirty looks all ‘round ensued.)

Or just suck it up?

Land ownership angst Tsur Somerville, associate professor with the UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate, noted that upward pressure on the price of local properties is a standard problem in desirable places to live – especially places that attract short-term residents, such as vacationers. Just ask the folks in Whistler, the Gulf Islands and other areas. “This is historically our biggest issue in places that are resorts: vacation homes drive up prices,” Somerville said.

The truth is, Canada is a nation of immigrants and each wave of newcomers has raised anxieties and concerns about land ownership. First Nations land claims are one example; restrictions the Islands Trust enforces on land uses in the sensitive Gulf Islands are another. Indeed, the fight for domestic control of land is as fundamental to Canada’s history as the story of settlement. Opposition to absentee landlords drove Prince Edward Island to join Canada in 1873, and provincial law still prevents non-residents from owning “in excess of five acres or having a shore frontage in excess of 165 feet unless he/she first receives permission to do so from the Lieutenant Governor in Council.”

Most of the Prairie provinces, where rights to real property are rooted in homesteading and distrust of bankers, also have restrictions on non-resident ownership of land. Canada isn’t alone in restricting foreign ownership: Iceland, Denmark and Australia, all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, limit ownership of real estate to those resident in the country and prohibit renting by foreign owners.

Switzerland, a traditional haven for foreign capital, limits transactions by foreign buyers to a set
amount per year, and cities such as Zurich and Geneva are off-limits.

Poland and Greece have restrictions on land purchases; in Mexico – a popular vacation destination – a local bank holds property in trust for foreign owners. The foreigner has all the privileges and obligations of ownership, but not ownership itself. But globalization, and the international flow of capital that’s followed, has put the issue of foreign ownership on the front burner in many countries. The tide of capital seeking a safe haven following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, D.C., made countries take a hard look at how much cash they wanted in their jurisdictions and how much ownership they were willing to give away. Concern accelerated only after the real estate boom – and bust – that followed. Iceland has linked control of local assets to national sovereignty.

And even Prime Minister Stephen Harper has begged comparisons by moving to block foreign ownership of strategic assets. Australia recognized the challenges following a loosening of foreign ownership restrictions in late 2008. The following year saw a wave of foreign investment 30% above historical norms. The dramatic shift in a country where first-time homebuyers were already finding some cities unaffordable called for action. A six-month consultation period culminated in changes to Australia’s investment regulations in April 2010. All purchases by temporary residents and foreign non-residents became subject to approval by Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board; temporary residents are limited to properties for their own use or development sites that would increase the housing stock.

Vacant land must be developed within two years, and foreign owners of residential properties must sell the properties when they leave the country or the government will confiscate and sell them instead. Australia’s introduction of tougher criteria for foreign real estate investment had an immediate effect. Approvals for purchases of residential real estate, typically the primary target of foreign investment applications, dropped from 2,450 to 647 – a 75% decline. Foreign restriction complications.

But could similar measures succeed in Vancouver?

During last fall’s civic election, independent council candidate Sandy Garossino called for restrictions on foreign ownership to address affordability. Affordability was being eroded by the foreign buyers. RBC Economics reported that a standard two-storey home in Vancouver required approximately 95.5% of the average household’s monthly income, while a detached bungalow required 92.5%. (A residence is considered affordable when it requires just 32% of household income.)

Modest declines in recent months have done little to bring home prices within the reach of locals. The bank’s most recent analysis declared, “unaffordability has long been a fact of life in the Vancouver housing market and this will continue to drive local buyers away.” Vancouver is a seller’s market relative to the rest of the country; RBC all but confirms that it’s a nonresident’s buyer’s market.

Garossino – who didn’t respond to a request to comment for this article – suggested that Vancouver address the situation by adopting a model similar to Singapore, where investors are limited to select areas of the city, leaving the rest of town to locals. But other observers are less confident such restrictions would work; they point out that, with no way of determining the extent of foreign investment in the local market, it’s difficult to impose restrictions.

Nicola Way, owner of upscale listings site BestHomesBC.com, said the lack of clear evidence for a foreign buying binge makes it hard to argue for investment restrictions. (See “Seeking paper trails in Asian property buying spree” – BIV issue 1168; March 13-19.)

“Until Canada can produce figures that definitively state the volume of properties bought by non-residents, I can’t see any restrictions placed on foreign ownership,” said Way.

Moreover, housing affordability is more than a function of who is buying properties. Basic land economics are at play, as well as financing regimes. “There are other factors at play when it comes to Canada’s rising house prices, namely consistently low interest rates that have served to underpin housing demand,” she said. “For the City of Vancouver itself, there is also the question of land supply. We are hemmed in by geography, so when supply becomes limited, demand – and therefore prices – increase.”

Somerville goes even further. He noted that without consensus on what a foreign buyer is, it’s tough to target the restrictions. And if the flow of cash can’t be tracked, what gets taxed? “How many people are we actually talking about who are truly non-resident, non-immigrant buyers? How many people are not renting their units out but keeping them vacant?” Somerville asked. “Before we have policies to address a problem, it’d be really good to know how big a problem it actually is.”

Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing. The statistics being thrown around are nice, but none of them have conclusively answered the question. “We don’t have the mechanisms to be really accurate,” he said. “Realtors telling me that their buyers are from China doesn’t answer it. And certainly where the appraisal chits are sent doesn’t answer it.” While non-resident purchasers could be subject to a different property tax rate, as happens in Florida, Somerville said it would have to be a province-wide measure rather than targeted to a specific city such as Vancouver or a specific part of the city. “You could always do it,” he said, “but if you put in a sub-area then you just spread the issue to other areas.”

And, hinting at his own skepticism, Somerville said developing a different tax structure or other restriction might not even be worth it relative to the scope of the problem. “Fundamentally, I don’t want to restrict the market and develop policies to address a critical problem without knowing what the problem is.”

See the original article here: BIV – Combating uncontrolled offshore ownership.

Source: Peter Mitham, Business in Vancouver

Is there a Canadian housing bubble? And how much is it over-valued?

Saturday, March 17th, 2012

Canadian housing is 10 to 15 percent over-valued, Canada’s second largest bank warned on Friday, as it called for more action to constrain lending growth.

Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander said in an analysis that if the overvaluation were unwound rapidly, the market correction would be three times the magnitude of the housing market correction of the early 1990s.

Alexander said it is more likely that there will be a gradual decline in sales and prices over the next several years unless there is a sharp rise in joblessness or interest rates. He warned against complacency, however.

“We need to acknowledge that a significant imbalance has developed and it poses a clear and present danger to Canada’s medium-term economic outlook,” he wrote. “It also suggests that further actions to constrain lending growth may be prudent.”

At greatest risk is Vancouver’s real estate market, a magnet for foreign buyers, along with the Toronto condo market, and the broad housing markets in Quebec City and Montreal, he said.

“Nevertheless, beyond selected cities, it is natural to assume that it will be a shock to all real estate markets when interest rates eventually rise from their prevailing exceedingly low levels,” he said.

Parallel with the real estate valuations is elevated household indebtedness. The ratio of debt to personal disposable income declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 150.6 percent from 151.9 percent in the third, but Alexander said this was due to a spike in unincorporated business and farm income that will probably prove to be temporary.

In fact, he forecast that by late 2013 the ratio will reach the 160 percent peak seen in the United States and Britain before their real estate corrections.

Alexander said the Bank of Canada, which has repeatedly voiced concern over housing prices and household debt, is in a bind because if it raises rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady, that would boost the Canadian dollar further and slow growth.

A majority of forecasters polled by Reuters last month predicted that the federal government would tighten mortgage rules this year. Alexander urged authorities to take a gradualist approach in any tightening.

Source: Reuters

Will there be a drop in BC home prices this year?

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

B.C. home prices are headed south this year before rising slightly in 2013, according to a quarterly forecast by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The forecast average drop of four per cent – the biggest decline in the country and far steeper than the 1.1-per-cent forecast drop nationally – will bring the average price of a residential B.C. property down to $539,100 from $561,300 in 2011.

However, the average price is expected to rise 0.5 per cent to $541,800 in 2013.

Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said the main reason for B.C.’s forecast price decline is because multi-million-dollar sales activity in West Vancouver, Vancouver’s westside and Richmond in early 2011 caused both the provincial and national average prices to temporarily spike, a phenomenon that’s not expected to repeat itself this year.

“It reflects what happened by way of the average price increase in Vancouver,” he said. “There was a spike in high-end activity [and] it skewed the average price higher temporarily.

“We don’t expect it to happen this year.”

As a result, the report said, while prices will likely hold steady near current levels, the national average price is forecast to dip by 1.1 per cent in 2012 to $359,100. Prices are expected to rise modestly in 2013, with the national average inching upward 0.9 per cent to $362,300 at the national level.

According to the report, home resales are expected to rise by 0.3 per cent this year in Canada, with low interest rates continuing to support the market.

For B.C., home resales are expected to drop by 1.9 per cent, before rising slightly in 2013.

National sales are forecast to reach 458,800 units in 2012, while in B.C. sales are expected to total 75,300.

“Rising demand in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia is expected to offset softer activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick,” CREA said.

In 2013, CREA said, sales are expected to ease back to 457,200 units, with modest gains in all provinces except Ontario “as economic and job growth picks up later this year and builds into 2013.”

“Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining,” added Klump.

“So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices. Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer will doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating.”

Source: Brian Morton, Vancouver Sun

Is Vancouver’s housing market becoming more balanced?

Sunday, March 4th, 2012

Metro Vancouver’s real estate market remains in stable territory with a pre-spring hike in sales, according to reports released Friday.

“With a sales-to-active-listings ratio of over 18 per cent, we see fairly balanced conditions in our marketplace as we move into the traditionally busier spring season,” Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president Rosario Setticasi said in a statement.

The REBGV monthly report said that sales reached 2,545 in February, a 61.4-per-cent increase over the 1,577 sales in January and a decline of 17.8-per-cent drop from the 3,097 sales in February 2011.

February sales in Metro Vancouver were the third lowest February total in the region since 2002, although just 151 sales below the 10-year average.

New listings totalled 5,552 in February, a 2.5-per-cent decline compared to February 2011, and a 3.5-per-cent decline compared to January 2012.

The report concluded that the benchmark price for all residential properties was $670,900 in February, up six per cent compared to February 2011 and up 0.9 per cent compared to January 2012.

The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1.04 million, while the price of apartments increased 2.8 per cent from February 2011 to $373,000. The price of a townhome unit increased 0.7 per cent over the same period to $473,000.

Meanwhile, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 1,269 sales in February, an increase of 59 per cent compared to January and a one-per-cent decrease from the 1,279 sales in February of 2011.

The board also received 2,846 new listings in February, a three-per-cent increase from January and a six-per-cent drop from last February’s 3,038.

The new listings take the total number of active listings to 9,037, an increase of four per cent over February 2011.

“Although our market has picked up, it’s still favouring buyers,” board president Scott Olson said in a statement, adding that the seasonal increase in sales was not as robust as in previous years. “In terms of our clients, we’re seeing more caution and deliberation when house hunting.”

The benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley in February was about $569,000, an increase of 8.3 per cent compared to $525,000 last year. Townhouse prices increased two per cent in the year, to $312,000 in February 2012, while the benchmark price of apartments increased 0.6 per cent to $202,000.

Source: Brian Morton, Vancouver Sun

Chinese investors still attracted to Vancouver and Toronto’s housing markets

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

If you thought Chinese investors were starting to lose interest in Canadian real estate, think again.

According to a new report, both Vancouver and Toronto are forecast to be this year’s most popular destinations for Chinese overseas property investment.

“Buying sentiment for overseas properties among Chinese mainland investors has been gaining strong momentum over the past few years,” said Derek Lai, director of international properties for Colliers International real estate services and the author of the report. “To date, about 20% to 40% of the foreign property investors in these destinations are from the Chinese mainland.”

The report goes on to cite Vancouver’s Chinese population – what it pegs as 30% of city residents – as one of the driving factors for that investment choice.

Mainland Chinese investors are also lured by the Lower Mainland’s educational opportunities and proximity to home, according to Colliers.

Still, Canada’s two largest cities are facing some competition for Chinese investment, with London and Singapore rounding out the top four real estate destinations.

In the UK, rising property values and a very limited supply have accelerated the push into London, with Chinese investors now buying as much as 20% of all new builds.

Singapore’s low mortgage rates of 1.2% to 2%, relatively high and stable rental yields of around 5% and a transparent transaction system are responsible for attracting its share of mainland Chinese interest, according to the Colliers report relying on both interviews and investment declaration states.

In Canada, Vancouver’s appeal helped to drive up price gains in large parts of the Lower Mainland last year, with domestic investors concerned another year of strong transaction growth could present a real challenge to their own acquisition plans if sellers continue to hold out for well-heeled foriegn buyers. Many have only begun to lower their asking prices to meet the current market realities; ie, more supply than demand.

That said, there has been some movement.

The dollar value B.C. properties sold in January dipped 7.6% to $2.1 billion, compared to the same month last year. The average MLS residential price was 3.8% lower at $527,219 compared to January 2011.

Source: Vernon Clement Jones, Canadian Real Estate Wealth

Canada’s condo and housing market – what could happen if things start to cool too quickly

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

An interesting and informative video from BNN about the state of Canada’s condo and housing market and how much taxpayers could be on the hook if the market starts to cool faster than expected.

video: The state of Canada's condo market

video: The state of Canada's condo market

How the new HST transition rules affect new homes in BC

Saturday, February 18th, 2012

The transitional tax rules for new homes in B.C. announced on Friday by Finance Minister Kevin Falcon are significantly more generous than the old ones.

The rule changes are intended to keep the tax burden on most newly-constructed homes at the same level that they were under the old PST regime, that they are under the current HST and that they will be when the PST is reinstated on April Fool’s Day next year. But three provisions make this a sweeter deal for builders and buyers:

. The threshold for a substantial tax rebate has been raised from $525,000 – a ludicrously low amount in the Lower Mainland, which is Canada’s most expensive housing market – to $825,000.

. Buyers of higher-priced homes will also benefit because they’ll pay tax only on the amount over and above the exemption.

. Recreational homes in most of B.C. will be eligible for the tax break for the first time.

The increased exemption goes a long way to address one of the most serious criticisms of the well-structured but badly implemented HST that has caused the governing Liberals so much grief. The exemption was so low and homes are subjected to so many taxes that the HST became yet another driver of sky-high urban house prices.

Would British Columbians’ reaction to the HST have been less visceral and less powerful if measures like these had been adopted from the start?

We’ll never know.

But maybe, just maybe, this more realistic approach indicates the government at least learned a lesson from the voter rage that drove former premier Gordon Campbell from office.

Since houses take a long time to build, the policy recognizes that many will be started under one tax regime and finished and sold under another. Falcon said the objective is to keep the tax burden the same, regardless of the timing.

In the old PST era, there was no provincial tax on the selling price of a new home, but builders paid PST on materials they used. The PST added, on average, two per cent to the total cost of the home.

When the HST was implemented, the seven-per-cent provincial tax applied to the selling price of the house, but the government said it wanted to keep the tax burden at the same level as under the PST. So it implemented a rebate of up to $26,250 (now raised to $42,500) to bring the effective provincial tax rate down to two per cent on the first $525,000.

When the PST resumes next year, the assumption is that the PST will, once again, add about two per cent to the cost of each new home.

Those prices should all work out to be equal.

The problem Falcon had to address was what to do about houses started under one tax regime and finished under another.

Depending on the timing and the policy, it’s easy to come up with scenarios where buyers might be able to duck both taxes, or where they might be dinged with both.

Falcon’s solution is a two-per-cent transitional tax on homes built with tax-free materials and sold with no HST applied. It’s a bit more complex than that, because it has a provision to consider what portion of the materials are bought and what portion of the home is completed under each tax regime.

Complex tax policies always create opportunities for unfairness. But Janice Roper, a specialist on indirect taxes at the Vancouver office of Deloitte, tells me the rules appear to be comprehensive, fair and hard to manipulate.

Peter Simpson, president and CEO of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association, said they provide the certainty his builders want, and they were announced sooner and with better terms than expected.

So – thus far, at least – Falcon seems to be finding his way through the HST minefield he inherited with his new job.

Source: Don Cayo, The Vancouver Sun

Average price of a Vancouver home drops slightly

Friday, February 17th, 2012

While home sales in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley dipped at the start of 2012, other regions throughout the province faced increased market activity, according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

The number of houses sold in the Vancouver region through Multiple Listing Service was down 13.4 per cent in January from the same month last year, the industry group said Wednesday.

In addition, the average price of a Vancouver home declined slightly, from $762,562 in January 2011 to $752,380 this year – a difference of 1.3 per cent.

In the Fraser Valley, sales dipped by 3.1 per cent during the same time period. However, prices rose 6.4 per cent from an average of $441,544 last year to $469,635 in 2012.

Meanwhile, B.C.’s northwest and northeast regions, Kamloops and Victoria saw sales gains of more than 10 per cent.

The biggest jump occurred in B.C.’s northwest region, where the average house price increased 14.2 per cent – from $214,357 to $244,872 – in the 12 months from January 2011.

Powell River, with an average price of $209,636, recorded the least expensive homes in the province – a figure down 1.2 per cent ($212,078) over January 2011.

Cameron Muir, chief economist with the BCREA, said consumer demand driven by low mortgage interest rates saw modest improvements in January from a year ago, despite a decline in provincial sales activity.

Across Canada, home sales were down 4.5 per cent in January from the same month one year earlier, while the number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4 per cent.

“This marks the first monthly decline in national activity since August 2011 and the biggest monthly decline since July 2010,” the Canadian Real Estate Association stated.

“The monthly decline reversed a string of monthly increases over the closing months of last year, and returned national activity to where it stood at the end of the third quarter of 2011.

January’s sales declines were led by Greater Toronto and Montreal, as well as a softening in other major centres such as Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa.

Still, unadjusted sales last month were up four per cent from January 2011 and were even with the five-and 10-year averages for January sales, it said.

“The national housing market is stabilizing and remains well balanced,” said CREA president Gary Morse.

“That said, forecasts for economic and job growth going forward vary widely for different parts of the country, suggesting a possible continuation of a softening trend in some markets, as well as the potential that demand will pick up based on strong fundamentals in others.”

Source: The Vancouver Sun

Property sales in Vancouver and Burnaby

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Vancouver Sun February 13th, 2012

6629 Laurel St., Vancouver

Type: 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom detached
Size: 2,700 sq. ft.
B.C. Assessment, 2012: $2,083,700
Listed for: $2,200,000
Sold for: $2,100,000
Sold on: Jan. 5
Days on market: 0
Listing agent: Daphne McFarland at Hugh & McKinnon Realty
Buyer’s agent: Charan Kamal Pannu at SRS Westside Realty

The big sell: The seller of this two-level rancher bought it in 1953 — the year it was built – and resided in it for the next 59 years. It is not uncommon to have original-owner homes of this age in Vancouver, but in these real-estate obsessed times, it is becoming less so. As the description on the MLS listing sheet states, this is a solid home, but the main value is in the large level lot. That land measures 54 by 144 feet and if redeveloped, could hold a property larger than the current residence. Adding to the attraction was the light-filled west-facing fenced back yard, the Oakridge neighbourhood, and the convenience of a location that’s near Oakridge shopping centre, Langara College, Churchill secondary and Jamieson elementary schools, and the Canada Line. All of this produced an accepted offer the day the property went on the market.

89 -9229 University Cres., Burnaby

Type: 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhouse
Size: 1,163 sq. ft.
B.C. Assessment, 2012: $392,000
Listed for: $449,000
Sold for: $438,000
Sold on: Jan. 12
Days on market: 58
Listing agent: Robert Crowe at RE/MAX Real Estate Services
Buyer’s agent: Robert Crowe and Ali Nimji at RE/MAX Real Estate Services

The big sell: SFU’s UniverCity development is a sustainable community that has evolved into a family-friendly complex high up on the campus grounds on Burnaby Mountain. Serenity was built by Polygon in 2006 and consists of 132 townhomes surrounded by forest walks, hiking and bike trails. One block away is the new University Highlands elementary school, and a new child care centre will be opening soon. This three-bedroom, two-level corner unit home enjoys an abundance of natural light and a large patio and garden area surrounded by thick conifers. The interior features a mix of flooring with wall-to-wall carpet, laminate hardwood and tiling. The kitchen has plenty of cupboard and counter space, birch-coloured cabinetry, a double sink, stainless-steel appliances, and a subway-tiled backsplash. An electric fireplace warms the living room and an oversized shower adds a spa-like quality to the ensuite bathroom. The home has designer colours throughout.

106-1040 West 8th Ave., Vancouver

Type: 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom apartment
Size: 692 sq. ft.
B.C. Assessment, 2012: $340,000
Listed for: $369,900
Sold for: $362,500
Sold on: Jan. 12
Days on market: 85
Listing agent: Paul Bale at Sutton Group – West Coast Realty
Buyer’s agent: George Winkler at Amex Broadway West Realty

The big sell: This home is just north of Broadway on the Fairview slopes, with Granville Island, the seawall, parks, shopping, and transportation minutes away. The ground-floor unit has a well-designed floor plan and a front door that opens to a 16-by-16-foot living room. That room has bright, arched windows that provide plenty of views of a partly covered garden patio. The home has a gas fireplace, in-suite laundry and storage areas, a 16-by-9-foot bedroom, and a secure underground parking stall. This is one of 28 units in the four-storey development, which was built in 1986 with the homes positioned around a central courtyard. The apartments have been rainscreened and are pet- and rental-friendly.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Vancouver’s housing market is unlikely to face a significant price correction

Thursday, February 9th, 2012

While Canada’s banks are tightening lending standards in a move to avoid a U.S.-style housing correction, experts say Vancouver’s robust housing market is not expected to face a severe price correction.

Canada’s banks are in talks with the federal government about ways to curb mortgage lending in response to a “genuine concern” about the country’s housing boom and rising consumer debt levels, said TD Bank chief executive officer Edmund Clark.

“Household debt numbers are coming up to U.S. levels, so that is causing us a concern,” said Clark.

The banks have responded by restricting some lending and raising prices on higher-risk borrowers.

TD Bank joined Royal Bank of Canada this week in ending a promotional 2.99 per cent four-year mortgage rate, three weeks before it was set to expire.

Although the Vancouver housing market may be out of equilibrium, a significant correction is not expected, said Tsur Somerville, director at the University of B.C. Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the Sauder School of Business.

“I think there’s some concern that prices don’t get so far out of whack that there’s a substantial correction,” Somerville said. “All you have to do is look around and you’ll see that if [a substantial correction] does happen, that would be a real big problem. So let’s not let the housing market be driven by a wave of cheap and easy-to-access money.”

The Bank of Canada is trying to reduce the exposure to mortgage debt and put the brakes on the housing market without using “really, really big hammers,” like raising interest rates, Somervilles said.

“The government has already taken steps to control mortgage lending through its regulations and I think there’s a wariness about tightening those too much, so they’re encouraging the banks to look at their mortgage book more closely.”

However, an expectation that mortgage rates will stay low is taking the sizzle out of Vancouver’s housing prices, Reuters reported.

“Since October, it was like someone turned off the tap. It became absolutely dead,” said longtime realtor Pam Allen.

At the same time, Chinese investors, who have long helped to underpin the city’s red-hot market, are holding back because property market curbs back home means they have less cash available.

But with immigrants still streaming in from China and elsewhere, and the city frequently rated one of the most livable on the planet, most experts see prices fizzling rather than imploding with a bang.

Vancouver price rises peaked at a stunning 19.8 per cent in 2006, dipped in 2009, and came roaring back with double-digit growth in both 2010 and 2011.

A house bought for $500,000 in 2001 would have fetched about $1.2 million a decade later, based on average price changes.

But the latest month-to-month figures show Vancouver prices fell in five of seven months from last June to December, including drops of more than 5 per cent in November and December.

Source: Bloomberg News with files from Reuters and Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun


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