I came across this interesting article on MoneySense who performed an analysis of Canada’s real estate market to find out which neighbourhoods are set to soar in value in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, and Montreal. Here is an edited version, but for the full-length article, please see http://www.moneysense.ca/property/buy/where-to-buy-now-2.

On one side, there are international economists — and their much publicized reports — declaring the market to be overvalued and due for a sudden, corrective crash. Then there are the local analysts who oscillate between doom-and-gloom predictions and the potential for a soft landing. Caught in the middle are prospective homeowners and real estate investors who are just trying to negotiate a good deal.

The first thing we looked for was value. Armed with detailed data from local real estate boards, we identified neighbourhoods where home prices are cheap when compared with adjacent areas and the city as a whole. Next we looked for momentum. By drilling down into one-year and three-year price appreciation statistics for various neighbourhoods, we were able to identify which areas of the city had the fastest rising home prices.

Our realtor panel, consisting of more than 35 experts helped us factor in the countless intangible factors that will impact these neighbourhoods over the next three years.

Vancouver

We all know how expensive real estate is in Greater Vancouver. But does it mean buying a home there is a bad investment? Not necessarily. At present, Vancouver’s unemployment, at 4.5%, is significantly better than the national average of 7%. While prices in the city have dipped, there are still neighbourhoods that are headed up.

Communities in New Westminster, Burnaby and Coquitlam all showed excellent long-term value, but the five neighbourhoods we feel will gain the most in the next few years are all inside the City of Vancouver. Best bets are Mount Pleasant (West and East), Fairview, Main and Fraser.

While the average price point for West Mount Pleasant (the area west of Ontario Street) was over $1.3 million, our realtors felt there was room for further increases. The west side of Mount Pleasant borders on Cambie Village and the SkyTrain’s Canada Line. It also has easy access to downtown, by transit, car or bike.

East Mount Pleasant, our number five neighbourhood, is also worth exploring. Houses just east of Ontario Street are typically 20% to 30% cheaper, with the average sale price in 2013 just over $800,000.

Those wanting to move closer to the beaches—but not pay Kitsilano or Point Grey prices—should check out Fairview. Located between Kitsilano and Mount Pleasant, Fairview’s average home price is 36% less than comparable homes directly to the west. This potential value and its proximity to downtown has meant an almost 6% appreciation in the last year alone.

Finally, consider Main — a residential area located a few blocks east and west of the popular Main Street strip. Like Mount Pleasant, homes on the east side sell for $300,000 to $400,000 less than their west-side counterparts, but both areas have great access to good schools, tons of independent shops and restaurants and Queen Elizabeth Park.

Calgary

The first on our list in Calgary is the Southwest (SW) community of Lakeview. Numerous biking and hiking trails are scattered throughout the 2.3 square kilometres of mostly single-family, detached homes. Despite everything this area has to offer, housing prices are 4% lower than the average home in the Southwest quadrant of the city, lending value to an already established neighbourhood.

The next neighbourhood on our list is Spruce Cliff. Established in 1950, Spruce Cliff is also located in the SW quadrant of Calgary. Unlike Lakeview, almost half of the dwellings in Spruce Cliff are condos or townhomes — testament to the amount of development and growth this area has experienced in the last decade.

Next on our list is Varsity Village — voted the best community to live in by local media in recent years. Located in the Northwest quadrant of the city, this pedestrian-friendly development was built 50 years ago. Varsity Village is close to the University of Calgary and Foothills Hospital, as well as the new Alberta Children’s Hospital.

Edmonton

While Edmonton is not exactly a flashy city, it’s enjoyed unprecedented growth in the past decade thanks to the resource industry and infrastructure projects, such as the building of a new ring road. According to our analysis, the best neighbourhoods to watch fall within the North Central and Northwest regions just outside the city’s downtown core. Topping the list is an area known as Zone 7, which includes the communities of Inglewood, Kensington, Westmount and North Glenora. On average, homes in these neighbourhoods were priced almost 8% cheaper than the rest of the city and in the last three years have appreciated by almost 13%.

Immediately to the east and closer to the downtown core is Zone 8. Known as Central Edmonton, the neighbourhoods with the most appeal include Prince Rupert and Queen Mary Park. The neighbourhoods are close to the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology, meaning many homes rent out basement apartments to students. It’s also close to the Royal Alexandra Hospital and Kingsway Mall, the second largest mall in Edmonton.

On paper the zone’s real estate prices dropped over the last three years, but this was due largely to a large number of newly built condos hitting the market and lowering average prices. While this may skew the numbers a bit, it’s also a great sign that the area is growing in popularity and value.

Toronto

Despite endless chatter about an overheated market, Toronto housing prices have continued to climb, with some homes attracting multiple bids and selling for $100,000 or more over list price.

While our top two Toronto neighbourhoods—Wychwood and the Junction Area—are no strangers to bidding wars, we still feel these areas offer great opportunities for near-future appreciation. Why? Despite Wychwood homes selling for almost 63% more than the average-priced Toronto home, these properties are still 19% cheaper than homes in neighbouring areas. That’s because Wychwood is nestled next to two of Toronto’s more expensive urban communities, Casa Loma and the Annex. Close proximity to wealthy neighbourhoods, access to transit and the downtown core, excellent green space, and a newly built community space (known as Wychwood Barns) all make this an under-appreciated area.

The Yonge-St. Clair neighbourhood is also seeing price momentum because of its proximity to wealthier neighbourhoods. Despite its steeper price tag—average homes cost just over $1.1 million — the area has realized a 30% price appreciation in the last year.

Two other neighbourhoods to consider are Englemount-Lawrence in the northwest, near the Allen expressway, and Moss Park, an area going through massive gentrification. Englemount-Lawrence is right beside the popular, and very expensive, Forest Hill neighbourhood. That means residents here can purchase a good-sized bungalow, on a fairly big lot, for as little as $600,000, as opposed to a Forest Hill semi for around $950,000. Based on our statistics, homes in the Englemount-Lawrence area were priced 40% lower than Forest Hill, on average, but with similar access to schools, shopping and transit.

For near-future appreciation Moss Park is the neighbourhood to buy. Every realtor we spoke to considered it an excellent area to invest, mainly because there’s been so much development, with more being planned. In the last year alone property values have appreciated by almost 12.5%, while the average price for homes in this area is still 27% less than the average-priced home in the City of Toronto.

Montreal

Montreal offers something for everyone—as long as you can find a job. While the national unemployment rate hovers at around 7%, Montreal’s unemployment rate sits at 8.2%. Still, the city saw a 4% rise in its population from 2011 to 2012 and announcements of inner-city rejuvenation — including the new McGill University Health Centre — are helping bolster property prices. Real estate is still cheap compared with other major Canadian cities—the average price of a home on Montreal Island is $481,386, and if you broaden the boundaries and look at the Greater Montreal Area, including the North and South Shores, the average home price is $324,595.

The best real estate opportunities right now are on the island itself. First on our list is the Rosemont/La Petite Patrie area, known locally as Little Italy. In the last three years, as the neighbourhood has become popular with buyers, prices have zoomed up 23%.

If the average property price of $468,000 is a bit daunting, consider our next top neighbourhood of Villeray/Saint Michel/Parc-Extension. The main draw is the neighbourhood’s affordability. Average property prices are more than $100,000 cheaper than neighbouring communities and the area is experiencing dramatic growth.

The third neighbourhood in our Montreal ranking was South-West (also known as Sud-Ouest). Homes in this area are 11% cheaper than the average Montreal Island home, but area prices have appreciated 40% in the last three years.

Two other neighbourhoods to consider are Verdun and LaSalle—both on the southern tip of the island. While Verdun is an older neighbourhood (originally settled by the Irish) it’s got a lot of potential. Despite a three-year appreciation of 22%, families may be leery of the area, given its high crime rate. Still, with its close proximity to the canal, downtown, the Métro (Montreal’s subway system) and Concordia University, it’s only a matter of time before the area experiences true gentrification.

Source: Romana King, MoneySense

Canada’s federal housing agency has bumped up its forecast for housing starts in 2013 but trimmed its forecast for 2014, setting an essentially flat outlook for a once-roaring market.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said on Thursday housing starts will be in a range of 179,300 to 190,600 units in 2013, with a point forecast, or most likely outcome, of 185,000. That is up from its August estimate of 182,800.

The agency said there will be 163,700 to 205,700 units started in 2014, with a point forecast of 184,700. That is down from CMHC’s August estimate of 186,600.

Both forecasts represent a sharp slowdown from the 214,827 starts of 2012.

Canada sidestepped the worst of the financial crisis of the last decade because it avoided the real estate excesses of its U.S. neighbour, and a post-recession housing boom helped it recover more quickly than its Group of Seven peers.

But the housing market began to cool last year after the country’s Conservative government, worried about a potential property bubble, tightened mortgage rules.

While some economists still worry that the U.S. housing crash of the last decade may be repeated in Canada, the CMHC forecasts see homebuilding and sales leveling off, with prices continuing to notch small gains.

CMHC said existing home sales will range from 439,400 to 474,000 in 2013, with a point forecast of 456,700 units. That’s up slightly from August’s forecast of 448,900 units and about equal with the 454,005 sales in 2012. For 2014, it expects a move up to a range of 438,300 to 498,100, with an increase in the point forecast to 468,200. That’s up slightly from August’s forecast of 467,600.

Price gains are expected to slow in 2013 and 2014. CMHC’s point forecast for the average price calls for a 4.0% gain to $378,000 in 2013, and a 1.9% gain to $385,200 in 2014.

Source: Andrea Hopkins, Reuters

With a love of paisley and an affinity for mixing florals and stripes, Sarah Richardson has plenty of passion for prints that often accent rooms she helps refurbish.

The designer has brought her own distinct imprint to a new collection of about 70 fabrics for Kravet, which manufactures fabrics sold to the trade. It’s a project two years in the making she describes as a “huge dream come true.”

“What I love about fabric is it covers all the surfaces,” says Richardson, host of the new HGTV Canada series Real Potential. “It’s what you sit on. It’s what you touch and it’s what you interact with every day.

“Anyone who knows my work knows I love patterns and prints and combining a collection of different fabrics together.”

For those looking to refresh their decor heading into fall, Richardson shares tips for selecting the right hues and ways to pair fabrics and colours within a designated space.

1. Determine your design esthetic

When it comes to decorating a space, Richardson says people often ask what the best way is to create a “jumping off point” for a room.

For those ready to make the leap, she recommends finding a fabric that appeals to their individual style sensibility. This not only helps to narrow the focus on choosing the right hue, but can also help to drive the decor direction in the rest of the space, such as those who may be looking to drench walls or coverings in a fresh colour.

“I always think that you should zone in and see if you like the colours,” Richardson says.

She says she always strives to balance contemporary and traditional elements within each room she designs, a mantra she applies in selecting fabrics featuring contrasting styles within a shared space.

2. Opt for a neutral foundation

Selecting a combination of neutrals as a base for large-scale furnishings is safe and timeless.

“You know you can live with it. It’s not like doing a hot pink sofa that you know you may not love next year.”

She says there has been a shift away from beige, oatmeal and flax-toned hues as the prime neutrals.

Heading into fall, expect to see grey emerge as the big colour and neutral alternative, she adds. Richardson recommends pairing the smoky shade with soft yellow for a “fresher take” on neutrals, mixing cool and warm colours within the room.

“I tend to look to the natural landscape for all of my inspiration for palettes and for combinations.”

3. Select a standout colour

Primed to add colour to help enliven staid surroundings? By keeping big-ticket items like chairs, sofas, drapes and any other items with longevity in neutral hues, Richardson recommends opting for a lone hue as an accent to inject into the room.

“Choose one colour that you want to add to layer in to bring your neutral palette to life, and you’ve made a great dynamic statement.

Source: Lauren La Rose, Canadian Press

In Metro Vancouver – where the average price for a typical single-family home tops $923,700 — the prospect of having some form of secondary suite to rent out to help with the mortgage is downright seductive.

Especially when the region’s apartment vacancy rate, as measured by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), is at an extremely low 1.8 per cent and renters are often scrambling for options.

Most B.C. landlords are fortunate enough not to encounter major issues when renting out their basement suites. But a small number of landlords have horror stories to tell.

Recently, one landlord temporarily, and unknowingly, rented out her basement suite at Shawnigan Lake to a meth addict and couldn’t immediately evict him. Others have had tenants skip out on the rent, change the locks on the house without permission, or rented to tenants who felt they had a say in household operations.

Other issues include tenants who smoke marijuana or cigarettes in a non-smoking home, or sneak in pets. The biggest issue recently appears to be the use of drum kits in basement suites.

While renting out a basement suite sounds like an easy process, adding landlord to the title of homeowner comes with considerable legal obligations, not to mention raising the financial risks if a rental falls through.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. estimated that in 2012 there were 39,307 secondary suites in Metro Vancouver homes.

In Vancouver proper, a 2009 city estimate found there were at least 25,000 homes in single-family zones containing some form of secondary suite.

On the side of financial benefits, depending on what bank you are dealing with, a would-be homeowner can count up to 90 per cent of a suite’s rent against the income they need to qualify for a mortgage, said Ryan McKinnley, mortgage development manager at Vancity credit union.

That, he added, is a big factor in moving a couple with a modest income from being unable to afford a home to being able to buy the house they want.

He used a set example to demonstrate how much of a difference a rental suite can make:

If a couple was looking at an $800,000 home, with a 20-per-cent down payment, they would need an annual family income of $122,000 to qualify for the $640,000 mortgage on a fixed five-year term at the current 3.69-per-cent rate.

However, if the house in question had a basement suite that could be rented for $1,500 a month, the $1,350 in monthly rental income that the couple could apply to their mortgage application would reduce the required family income to $72,000 a year.

To stretch the example even farther, if the couple was willing to live in the basement suite themselves and rent out the rest of the house at $2,500 per month, the $2,250 they could apply to the mortgage means the $800,000 property would be in reach with a family income of $45,000.

“It’s very common – and it’s often that one piece that actually allows (a homebuyer) to purchase the house that they want,” McKinnley said.

However, McKinnley said homeowners need to have a plan going into the process, with contingencies covering off all the “what-if” scenarios. Such “what ifs” include being able to cover the full mortgage cost if the suite is vacant for a month or two, as well as the cost of repairs and proper insurance.

Setting aside a couple of months rent in a savings account — as a cushion against an unforeseen vacancy — allows a homeowner to take time to find a good tenant rather than rushing to rent it out. That contingency “will give you peace of mind,” McKinnley added.

“Whenever you’re dependent on income that could potentially not be there for a month or two, it’s important to look at that,” McKinnley said.

Then there is the issue of whether a suite is legal.

Discouraged for decades as a nuisance, most Metro Vancouver municipalities now do allow secondary suites. Only Burnaby restricts suites to relatives of a homeowner or in-home caregivers.

The City of Vancouver, for instance, passed a bylaw legalizing secondary suites in all single-family zoned areas of the city, and in 2009 estimated that 25,000 houses in these zones did have a suite.

However, to be legal, secondary suites have to pass building inspections — which means renovations to bring suites up to building codes — and meet specific requirements. In most municipalities, suites are subject to certain fees, which vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

Surrey, for instance, allows each single-family home to have one suite that meets B.C.’s building codes and passes inspection. Fees, ranging from a secondary-suite services fee to additional charges for garbage, water and sewer usage, add up to $1,288 a year for suites in un-metered homes. For metered homes, fees are based on water consumption.

In Vancouver, suite owners require a business license, which is $62 per year with a one-time $50 new-applicant fee at the start. One-time fees for building inspections and permits add up to $1,194 or more. Annual fees — on top of the business licence — total $330.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver maintains a list on its website of which municipalities allow secondary suites, and outlines most requirements that homeowners must follow.

The least risky situation is to have a secondary suite registered in order to have certainty over matters that involve insurance or financing, said Larry Buttress, deputy executive officer for the Real Estate Council of B.C. However, Buttress added there is a risk in registration in that a suite might not be approved.

“So it’s a little bit of a Catch-22,” Buttress said.

For financing, McKinley said buyers with only the minimum down payment who need CMHC mortgage insurance have to make sure suites are legally registered to qualify.

Otherwise, banks and financial institutions have other ways to test income-generating potential of suites, such as a rent report conducted by an appraiser or examination of the rental income claimed by previous owners on tax returns.

Matters of financing and registration come before perhaps the toughest part of renting out your suite: the ongoing legal obligation of being a landlord.

“Renting a basement or secondary suite is a business, and business owners need to understand the rules,” said Spencer.

To start with, Spencer said homeowners have to understand their operations are governed by the Residential Tenancy Act, which sets out their responsibilities to their buildings and the rights of tenants.

Landlords have to make sure their suites meet health, safety and housing standards; they have to provide emergency repairs; and they need to understand what is meant by emergency (that the tenant’s health and safety is in danger).

“Education is the key,” Spencer said, adding she recommends homeowners join a professional association to get the backing of a larger group, particularly when it comes to acquiring legally enforceable rental application forms and rental agreements.

“Almost everything about being a landlord is regulated, from how you enter into a tenancy, how much you can charge for security and pet deposits, how you deal with rent increases, nonpayment of rent, and evictions,” Spencer said.

And landlords need to understand their obligations for repairs and maintenance, how they are allowed to access the suite, dealing with sublets, and what constitutes discrimination, she added.

For all of these reasons, Spencer said, landlords need those specific and legally enforceable forms.

TIPS FOR LANDLORDS

1) PROPER RENTAL DOCUMENTS

Having a successful tenancy requires good, clear, concise definitions of everybody’s responsibilities and rights.

• Rental application form

This document is probably the most important, which comes as a surprise to many new landlords. A good rental application will require information on: the applicant’s job, their supervisor, their income, current address, landlord references, friends, government ID, next of kin, and extended family members.

This information will help landlords gain a better understanding of the tenant’s characteristics. More importantly, however, it gives the landlord some good contacts to track down the tenant if they should disappear.

• Move-in inspection report

Most provinces require a landlord and tenant to complete a move-in report upon onset of a tenancy. This quantifies and documents the condition of a property so that, when the tenant leaves, any damage caused is clear. A thorough and concise move-in report card is a sure-fire way of avoiding significant disputes over tenant-related damage.

• Residential tenancy agreement

As the name suggests, this document will establish the terms of the relationship between the tenant and landlord. The more detail it provides the better, and sourcing a free online agreement is not sufficient to cover a landlord’s interests.

• Addendum to residential tenancy agreement

This can be a small side document that forms part of the agreement and sets out additional rules for items such as pets, smoking in the unit, or penalties for late rental payments. These documents are harder to enforce, but establish good guidelines for the day-to-day operations of a rental property.

2) WHAT TO LOOK FOR WHEN SHOWING RENTAL PROPERTY

Some careful observations by the landlord can be extremely useful when considering the tenant’s application.

• Did the tenants arrive on time?

Tenants who are respectful of their landlord’s time are good tenants to have. Tenants who do not arrive on time for a showing are not likely to pay their rent on time, either.

• Are the children well behaved?

Tenants who want something — in this case, to move into your rental property — are likely to be on their best behaviour. Kids, on the other hand, can be cautioned numerous times to behave but have shorter attention spans. If the tenant’s kids are behaving poorly during the showing, expect the property to be returned to you with obvious damage.

• Did tenants take off their shoes?

If a landlord has to ask the tenant to remove their shoes, this is a good indication they are not in the habit of doing so. Tenants who remove their shoes are likely to cause less stress on the flooring of a rental property.

• What does the back seat of the tenant’s car look like?

This is a tried-and-true technique for learning whether the prospective renter will keep the rental property clean, or let clutter, dirt and debris build up. Avoid tenants with garbage in their car.

3) VERIFYING INFORMATION IN A RENTAL APPLICATION

The rental application contains the most comprehensive set of information about the prospective renters and should take the most time to review and confirm. Renters are extremely unlikely to include information in their application that they know will hinder their chance of having it approved. Ask the following questions:

• Does the tenant’s stated income seem unreasonably high?

Look for ways to confirm income, such as a letter of employment from a reputable business. If the income is from self-employment, ask for a recent tax return to confirm it. Remember: the more intrusive the questioning, the less likelihood of a disaster.

• Is the employer reputable?

A quick Google search to confirm the existence of the company or place of work provided by the tenant should be sufficient. If it does not exist or is extremely difficult to find online, then it is likely to have been made up. If it cannot be confirmed, decline the tenant’s application.

• Are there gaps in the tenant’s rental history?

If a tenant’s application lacks previous landlord information for a period of time (typically six or 12 months), they may be trying to hide a less-than-positive past tenancy. If they refuse to provide comprehensive chronological information for the past two years, ask where they lived during the missing time. A backpacking trip overseas or living with parents are acceptable responses; disclosure of a problematic tenancy followed by court eviction is not an acceptable response.

Source: Derrick Penner and Kelly Sinoski, Vancouver Sun; Shamon Kureshi, Canadian Real Estate Wealth Magazine

Condo shopping can be overwhelming – a pre-shopping checklist can help limit your stress and visits to show homes.

To create such a list, start by visiting presentation centres and model units in person. Although the Internet is a great place to do some basic research, you will learn much more by assessing the quality of materials and construction in person. This will also give you a chance to ask your questions and evaluate the quality of the responses you get. Be consistent with the questions you ask in the showrooms so you can make accurate comparisons.

When visiting, try to speak with the show home’s specialist who assists buyers with their design choices, as they are often present. Take advantage of their expertise regarding upgrades and options. This will be helpful even if you eventually settle on another development.

Before visiting, make a list of those amenities that are important to you and that you are likely to use. Remember, the cost of amenities is embedded in the condo price and the cost of maintaining them in the condo fees.

Some questions to be answered:

• Who is buying units in the condo — singles, couples, students, young families, retirees? This will determine the condo’s culture. Be careful if the units are being sold to investors as rental units; tenants as a group may be less invested in keeping the property up and more frequent turnover will subject the common areas to wear and tear.

• Consider “curb appeal.” Is impressing your visitors with a beautiful facade, entry foyer and other common areas important to you? Not every condo owner cares about the width of the corridors or the decor in the elevators, but many do.

• Is there adequate and convenient visitor parking? A good way to deter friends from coming by is making parking difficult.

• Are the elevators fast and adequate for the size of the building? This is particularly important if you want to be on a higher floor.

• Parking is key. Consider ease of access, adequate space for your car and ease of egress into traffic. Fighting your way into rush-hour street traffic can get old quickly; on the other hand, you may be on a schedule that lets you avoid rush hours.

• It may be wise to purchase a parking space or two even if you don’t have cars — they can become more valuable over time and can always be sold. Parking spaces can be significant inducements when reselling.

• Check out the storage lockers for size, location and internal organization. You don’t want to have to unpack the whole locker just to get at your suitcases in the back.

• Location, location, location. As for all real estate, condo location is paramount. However, there are many factors that determine the value of a given location to a given purchaser. Convenience generally plays a significant role and convenience is a very personal thing. Some of the following points will help clarify this.

• When examining floor plans and fact sheets, make sure you understand the positives and negatives of the layout. If you have trouble visualizing this, educate yourself by quizzing the people representing the various developments about their layouts. You will soon be doing this automatically when you see a floor plan.

Flow is very important, especially if you are used to bigger spaces. Make sure the room sizes meet your requirements. This should include the kitchen, which needs to be more comprehensive if you plan to cook or entertain. Of course, some facilities have beautiful entertaining spaces and catering services. You might prefer this format.

• If cooking is a priority, find out which appliances are included and check them out. If they don’t measure up you may need to upgrade.

• Is a balcony important and will you actually use it? If you plan to garden, make sure you know the rules governing your balcony use. If you have no interest in balcony living, smaller is better than larger as it will save you money and upkeep.

• Are your critical amenities readily accessible? Of course, accessibility will depend on your level of mobility — committed walker, cyclist or driver. Some may require facilities within their condo complex.

• Make sure you know how bright your condo will be and determine how important this is to you. Orientation of principal rooms and window height are the two biggest factors.

• Does the level of security offered meet your expectations? This applies to building access, garage surveillance, and elevator and corridor security.

• Concierge service is both a security and a convenience factor. What will the concierge do for you and during what hours? If you travel a lot, this becomes more important — who accepts the deliveries and brings in the mail?

• What are the rules about pets, both yours and neighbours? How long does it take to get Fido to the grass and what do you do in winter? Or perhaps you don’t want to interact with pets on a regular basis.

• Is the condo on a flight path or adjacent to high tension transmission lines? This may not be important to you personally but may become an important issue on resale.

• Are there lighted recreational facilities nearby that may generate noise in the evening?

• Are there local events such as exhibitions or sports events that may overwhelm traffic circulation intermittently?

Source: Marilyn Wilson, Marilyn Wilson Dream Properties Inc., Ottawa

Home sales in two of Canada’s largest cities continued their surge in August from a year earlier.

Sales in Toronto, the largest market, rose 21% from August last year to 7,569 units, the Toronto Real Estate Board said in a statement Thursday, with average prices gaining 5.4%. Vancouver existing home sales rose 52%, that city’s real estate board said Wednesday.

Housing-market data are showing few signs of a hard landing after warnings from economists and policy makers that a bubble may have been forming. Buyers have adjusted to tighter mortgage rules imposed last year, according to Diane Usher, president of the Toronto realtor group.

“Many households have accounted for the added costs brought on by stricter mortgage lending guidelines and have reactivated their search for a home,” User said in today’s statement.

Other regions and cities recording double-digit sales gains in August include Victoria and the Fraser Valley areas of British Columbia, and Calgary.

The average price of a home sold in Toronto was $503,094 in August, the Toronto realtors group said Thursday.

There are signs the country’s housing market may be losing some steam. Existing home sales recorded their smallest monthly gain in five months in July, the Canadian real estate association said Aug. 15. Banks including Royal Bank and Toronto-Dominion, the two largest lenders, also have raised mortgage rates in recent weeks to reflect higher yields in the bond market.

The Canadian Real Estate Association publishes aggregated national data around the middle of each month.

Source: Theophilos Argitis, Bloomberg News

Greater Vancouver home sales roared ahead 52 per cent last month, raising the prospect of a new phase of stability in Canada’s most expensive housing market.

The number of properties sold on the Multiple Listing Service reached 2,514 in August, up from 1,689 sales in the same month a year earlier, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Wednesday. The increased activity marks the fourth consecutive month that Greater Vancouver has experienced a year-over-year gain in monthly sales, following a 19-month slump in volume.

The rebound is a sign that fears of a possible housing market crash in the Vancouver region appear overblown.

Greater Vancouver’s housing market is gradually on the mend after the 19-month decline in year-over-year resale volume from October, 2011, to April, 2013, said Tsur Somerville, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.

Some buyers in August signed up in advance for mortgages before rates crept up, but interest rates remain relatively low, Prof. Somerville said. “Trying to time the market is really hard,” he said. “I’m not expecting any kind of raging growth market in Vancouver housing. We’re in an environment of a perception of more hikes in interest rates coming and the economy isn’t that strong.”

The benchmark MLS price index in Greater Vancouver for single-family detached homes, condos and townhouses was $601,500 in August, down 1.3 per cent from the same month in 2012. Since January, however, the price index has risen 2.3 per cent.

Dustin Strong, 34, a territory manager in Vancouver for a food distributor, is looking to buy a home with his girlfriend, Sarah. “We’re patiently waiting and watching,” he said. “Prices have been overheated, and you weren’t getting good value for the money. But I don’t think a crash would be a good thing because that would have catastrophic consequences for the economy.”

Mr. Strong said he is being realistic about what is attainable, so a townhouse is on the shopping list. Greater Vancouver’s price index, which strips out the most expensive properties, was $923,700 for a single-family detached home in August, compared with $457,000 for a townhouse and $366,100 for a condo.

“It’s a constant analysis for me,” Mr. Strong said, adding that it would be ideal to have a minimum down payment of 10 to 20 per cent of the purchase price.

While buyers rushed back into Greater Vancouver’s housing market, the increased sales came after a weak period in the summer of 2012. In July last year, the federal government reduced the maximum period on government-backed mortgages to 25 years from 30 years. Real estate experts say the change, which knocked some first-time buyers out of the market, contributed to the slowdown in housing sales in Vancouver in August of 2012.

Sales volume last month was still 4.6 per cent below the 10-year average for August.

Board president Sandra Wyant said this summer’s housing market has been much more hectic than it was in 2012, but she doesn’t expect a return to widespread bidding wars. “Buyers and sellers need to recognize that this is an increase in sales. Some buyers might be getting apprehensive that prices are about to surge, but this is a balanced market with stable prices,” Ms. Wyant said.

A measurement closely watched by the real estate industry, known as the sales-to-active-listings ratio, registered 15.7 per cent in Greater Vancouver last month. B.C. real estate agents consider it a balanced market when the ratio ranges from 15 to 20 per cent. It is deemed a buyer’s market below 15 per cent and a seller’s market above 20 per cent in the Vancouver region. There were a total of 16,027 active listings last month, down 8.8 per cent from a year earlier.

In the B.C. Fraser Valley, 1,258 residential properties sold in August, up 17 per cent from same month in 2012. The MLS home price index dipped 0.6 per cent year-over-year in the Fraser Valley, which includes the sprawling and less-expensive Vancouver suburb of Surrey.

Source: Brent Jang, Globe and Mail

The short answer is ‘not yet’.

Just announced today is that the Bank of Canada is holding its main interest rate at one per cent, where it has been since September 2010.

Economists widely expect the central bank to hold its trendsetting rate steady well into next year, so Wednesday’s announcement came as no surprise.

“The bank did precisely what was expected of them today: nothing,” BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to investors.

“If anything, the tone of the statement was slightly more dovish, noting the more moderate global backdrop, less certainty on the output gap and still relatively relaxed on the household debt front.

“The bottom line is that we are still looking at a very long period of inactivity by the bank, and may well be talking about four years of unchanged rates a year from now.”

That wait-and-see approach would appear to suit Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz just fine. He has been on the job since early June and shows no sign of breaking from the monetary policies of his predecessor, Mark Carney, who took up a new post this summer as head of the Bank of England.

“Add it all up and this is a central bank that believes that growth will pick up in 2014 and that will eventually require higher rates, but which is happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for substantial proof such an acceleration is underway before raising rates,” CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said in an investors’ note.

“We still look for the first hike in early 2015, with some risk of a move late in 2014 if there are upside surprises to our forecast.”

In the explanatory note to Wednesday’s announcement, the Bank of Canada said it intends no changes as long as considerable slack remains in the economy, inflation remains muted and household finances continue to improve.

Sluggish exports and business investment have slowed the country’s economic growth, the bank said.

“Uncertain global economic conditions appear to be delaying the anticipated rotation of demand in Canada towards exports and investment.”

To underscore that point, new figures Wednesday from Statistics Canada showed the country’s exports fell to $39.2 billion in July, down 0.6 per cent from the month before.

At the same time, imports grew slightly, to push the country’s merchandise trade deficit with the world to $931 million in July from $460 million in June.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada noted the housing sector has been slightly stronger than anticipated, while household credit has continued to slow and mortgage interest rates are higher, the bank added, all of which point to “a continued constructive evolution of household imbalances.”

The bank also said the global economy has less momentum than anticipated.

“In Europe, there are early signs of a recovery and Japan’s situation remains promising,” it said.

“In a number of emerging market economies, financial volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to growth prospects, although China continues to grow at a solid pace.”

While commodity prices have been relatively stable, the bank says geopolitical tensions — which presumably include the bloody conflict in Syria and the continued unrest in Egypt — are raising the global price of oil.

The bank took a slightly dimmer view than it has previously of short-term economic growth in the United States, said RBC assistant chief economist Dawn Desjardins.

“While today’s statement incorporated a slightly less optimistic view of the near-term outlook for U.S. growth and acknowledged that in turn, a firming in Canadian export and business investment was evolving slower than projected, the main thresholds required for the bank to start to reduce the amount of stimulus remained intact,” she wrote in an investors’ note.

The bank’s next rate announcement is scheduled for Oct. 23.

Source: Steve Rennie, The Canadian Press

Those looking to gain a foothold in Metro Vancouver’s already pricey housing market are facing another hurdle as key financial institutions across the country move to hike mortgage rates.

On Thursday, five-year fixed mortgage rates edged near the four-per-cent range at many financial institutions after hovering near the three-per-cent mark for months. RBC posted its five-year rate at 3.89 per cent, while BMO and Scotiabank offered 3.79 per cent and CIBC 3.69 per cent.

And prospective home buyers likely won’t be able to wait the trend out this time around, analysts said. According to Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC world markets, the increases are a sign of things to come.

“Interest rates are rising for a reason,” he said, attributing the changes to an increasingly healthy U.S. economy, which analysts believe will benefit Canada as well.

“The unemployment rate will go down, the wages will rise — you know, the positive impact of good economic news — and that will allow people to be able to tolerate this increase in interest rates to a bigger extent,” he said.

Limits on mortgages secured by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation may also be playing a role.

Increased rates due to a rebounding U.S. economy are good news in the long term, but in the short term may mean more belt-tightening for those looking to buy a home or who have already leveraged themselves to the hilt to finance an existing mortgage, Tal said.

“I think given the fact that we’ve borrowed so much over the past five, six years, as a society we’ve become extremely sensitive to higher interest rates. And it’s starting — we are already starting to see people thinking twice about buying that second TV.”

The increases may also lead prospective homebuyers to think twice about getting on the property ladder in the Vancouver market, said mortgage broker Jessi Johnson,

“It definitely will affect people’s ability to qualify (for a mortgage),” he said, noting those who do will likely wind up with less money to play with and may look to other cities, such as Surrey.

For those who are already operating on razor-thin margins, Johnson advised planning ahead for what increasing rates may mean for their financial situation when their mortgage is due for renewal.

“People need to jump on an online calculator and ask ‘what does this do for my monthly cash flow?’” he said. While many people sign up for the maximum mortgage they can get, Johnson said, that’s not always a good idea because they don’t often stop to think about the possibility that rates can rise, sometimes substantially.

“The biggest issue is people get maxed out.”

But Geoff Lee, another mortgage broker in Vancouver, said he doesn’t think homeowners — or prospective ones — should panic just yet.

He’s not convinced the hikes are an indication of a steady upward trend.

“It’s like a gas war — as soon as one lender is gonna knock it back down, then you’re going to see people follow,” he said. “There’s really no reason why the fixed rates should be increasing, other than (the banks are) trying to make some money in an environment where they haven’t made much money at all.”

Compared to historic interest rates, which decades ago were commonly in the double digits, a four per cent borrowing rate is nothing to get excited about for some economists.

“There’s no question some buyers on the margins will be squeezed out,” said Cameron Muir, chief economist with the B.C. Real Estate Board, but in general, rate increases of less than one per cent won’t have a measurable impact on Vancouver’s housing market.

He added Lower Mainland housing sales have rebounded in the last six months from last year, where they hit lows not seen since the late 1990s. That trend was influenced partly by the reduction in mortgage amortization periods from 30 to 25 years introduced last year.

Muir’s latest housing forecast, released Thursday, predicts increasing rates may mean growth in sales will slow, but overall the upward trend will continue. There may even be a spike in the short term as buyers already approved for mortgages at a lower rate scramble to get in the market.

But given the economic indications, people should approach the market cautiously, particularly of they are already dealing with consumer debt, said the Credit Counselling Society’s Scott Hannah.

The increased rates may inspire people in precarious financial situations to hold off on purchasing a home, he said. But for those already in the market and “living on the edge of their paycheques,” the increases will necessitate a retooling of the household budget in order to stave off consumer debt.

Hannah advises homeowners in tight financial situations to adjust their spending habits so that they can meet mortgage payments and avoid relying on unsecured debt, like credit, to meet other expenses, such as car payments.

Better to let go of the car altogether than go into consumer debt and risk losing a house, which in the long-term will earn equity, he said.

“The worst thing you can do when the rates go up quicker than the housing market cools off is now be in a position where you have to sell your home,” Hannah said. “You’re going to lose money.”

Source: Jessica Barrett, Vancouver Sun

With property prices on the up in Vancouver, the time when we were wowed by news of million-dollar homes is long gone. However, this Shaughnessy home has just hit the market for $35 million – a figure that does set it apart from the rest.

Listed by Victor Kwan of RE/MAX Select Properties and Amy Lau of Selmak Realty, here is the MLS description (in case you’re tempted …).

A rare opportunity to own both sides of this award winning “Heritage A” Mansion located in 1st Shaughnessy. This exquisite luxurious estate was the home of the former Lt. Governor (Eric Hamber). These two units have never been on the market at the same time. Current owner has connected both for easy access. Units can easily converted back to two independent units (#1 – 4686 sq.ft. /#2 – 7530 sq.ft. combined total of 12,216 sq.ft.). This beautifully restored heritage residence includes formal rooms, 2 wine cellars, oak floors, stained glass windows, gourmet kitchen, oak panelled elevator and art deco parkade. Combined number of 9 bedrooms, 13 bathrooms, 3 kitchens. The secured underground parking spaces makes it easy to just lock and leave the estate.