Canadian home prices are likely about 10 percent overvalued given expectations for rising interest rates, TD Bank said in a report yesterday.

However, the bank also noted the overvaluation in markets such as Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa is likely more significant than in others across the country.

“These markets will likely feel the pinch from modestly higher interest rates over the next two years more so than others,” TD economist Diana Petramala wrote in the report.

She noted Montreal, Quebec City and Ottawa have been flooded with an overhang of inventory of unsold condos.

“Home prices weakened in the second half of 2013 as a result and we expect that softness to persist in 2014,” Petramala said. “Toronto is poised to follow their lead, as the number of new condos scheduled to be completed in 2014 and 2015 is elevated relative to history.”

The Canadian market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years. Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.

“Our forecast is consistent with this imbalance unwinding gradually over the next few years through a combination of moderate income growth and a modest home price correction,” Petramala wrote.

“While 2014 is likely to see stable prices on average, prices are expected to edge down by two percent in 2015-16 as the over-building challenge increasingly weighs on the market and as borrowing costs grind higher.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported recently that sales through its multiple listings service totalled 457,893 homes for 2013, up eight-tenths of a per cent from 2012.

The national average price for homes sold in December was $389,119, up 10.4 per cent from the end of 2012. Excluding Greater Vancouver and the Toronto region, the year-over-year increase was 4.6 per cent.

The TD report noted that overvaluation can be measured in several different ways with vastly different results.

“The home price-to-rent ratio points to an over-valuation of 60 percent. However, this measure is skewed by rent controls. It is difficult to know whether prices are too high, or if its rents that are too low,” TD said.

Another indicator, the home price-to-income ratio suggested overvaluation as high as 30 percent, but TD said that depends on how income is defined and what is included.

“Our preferred index of assessing housing overvaluation is affordability, the percent of income an average household must devote to mortgage payments on an average priced home with a conventional mortgage,” the report said.

“While interest rates are not likely to return to their historical norms, the current low level of interest rates is also not sustainable. We expect a modest increase in interest rates.”

Source: Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate steady at one per cent today, continuing its longest stretch of inaction on record.

Canada’s central bank last changed its target for the overnight rate in late 2010, when it was raised to its current level.The bank announces its latest policy decision on interest rates every six weeks, and the bank has now stood pat for 26 consecutive policy meetings.

In a statement accompanying Wednesday’s decision, the bank said it expects inflation to remain lower than previously anticipated for the next little while. It also said it expects a soft landing in the housing market.

The bank wasn’t expected to raise or lower rates on Wednesday, but watchers are closely parsing the statement to gauge which direction the bank is heading in — a rate hike to cool inflation, or a rate cut to stimulate the economy.

Wednesday’s statement suggests the bank is leaning toward the former.

The loonie plunged in the immediate aftermath of the news, shedding about a third of a cent to trade at 90.70 cents US.

Source: CBC News

Metro Vancouver house prices will increase by an average of 4.4 per cent this year to $801,000, according to the latest Royal LePage house price survey.

But Vancouver real estate experts suggested Thursday the forecast might be slightly optimistic.

“I’m expecting price increases in the one-to-two-per-cent range,” B.C. Real Estate Association chief economist Cameron Muir said in an interview. “Market conditions are fairly balanced now, which suggests fairly limited upward pressure on prices.

“I really don’t expect to see sales levels reach the point where prices are going to accelerate in any significant way.”

Sandra Wyant, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, noted most Vancouverarea housing prices increased by about two per cent last year – with the benchmark price for a detached home climbing 2.5 per cent to $927,000 while townhouse prices increased by 1.2 per cent to $456,100. Condominium prices rose by two per cent to $367,800.

“If we have pent-up demand this year, (Royal LePage) may very well be correct,” she said, noting the price-increase forecast is higher than other surveys. “It depends on how buyers are affected by certain events, such as interest rates and job growth.”

Royal LePage said confidence crept back into the Vancouver real estate market last year and it expects that momentum to carry over into 2014. The firm predicts total Metro Vancouver housing sales to increase from 28,700 in 2013 to 30,000 this year.

Royal LePage president Phil Soper said the national housing market emerged from a year-long correctional cycle of slow sales volumes last year.

“In the absence of some calamitous event or material increase in mortgage financing costs, we expect this positive momentum to characterize 2014,” he said in a statement.

Soper said talk of a “soft landing” for Canada’s real estate market this year is misguided.

“We expect no landing, no slowdown and no correction in the near-term,” he said. “Conditions are ripe for as strong a market as we saw in the post-recessionary rebound of the last decade.”

Muir noted the value of Metro Vancouver detached homes rose higher than other housing types last year and he expects that trend to continue in 2014.

“Condo prices have been quite flat while the price of single detached homes has accelerated, particularly in some of the tonier markets,” he said. “Eighty per cent of housing starts today are multi-family units so single detached homes will garner an increasing premium over time.”

Muir expects mortgage rates will remain “relatively unchanged” this year, with five-year rates increasing by about half a percentage point by the end of the year.

He said the U.S. economy could pose a risk to that forecast if it grows faster than expected this year, which could fuel inflation concerns and put more upward pressure on interest rates.

Wyant said job growth will play a big role in B.C. real estate values this year, noting the northern B.C. real estate market continues to perform well due to strong employment trends.

The Royal LePage survey said Calgary will have the highest house-price increases in Canada this year, with the average price increasing 5.1 per cent to $461,000. Vancouver’s 4.4-per-cent increase to $801,000 was second while Toronto came in third, with prices there expected to climb by 3.9 per cent this year to $545,000.

Across Canada, the average price is expected to increase by 3.7 per cent to $396,500.

Source: Bruce Constantineau, Vancouver Sun

Good news for homeowners and buyers as the Bank of Canada has just announced that it will hold its key interest rate steady but sounded a touch more dovish in its outlook, saying the risks of undesirably weak inflation appeared greater than they did six weeks ago.

The central bank stunned markets in October by abandoning 18 months of signaling that rate hikes were on the horizon. But it made clear at the time it was just as likely to raise rates as to lower them as it was caught between excessive household debt on one hand and below-target inflation on the other.

The bank’s statement today showed it was now increasingly concerned about possible disinflation after the inflation rate dropped to 0.7 percent in October. It added, however, that the balance of risks remained within the range of possible scenarios it identified in October.

“The risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed, while the downside risks to inflation appear to be greater,” it said.

“Weighing these considerations, the bank judges that the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate …,” it said.

The Canadian dollar briefly weakened after the statement to C$1.0689 to the U.S. dollar, compared with C$1.0663 an hour earlier.

The bank has kept its overnight rate target at 1 percent since September 2010, following three successive hikes that year as Canada pulled out of a relatively mild recession.

None of 32 analysts polled by Reuters last week had expected any rate move on Wednesday, but many market players were nonetheless bracing for the possibility that the bank would somehow introduce more dovish language without signaling actual rate cuts.

The median forecast in that poll was for the bank to start raising rates in the second quarter of 2015.

Source: Reuters

A signal from the Bank of Canada that it is not raising its key lending rate any time soon, coupled with the likelihood of falling mortgage rates, could be enough to keep the latest housing rally going.

There have been signs the housing market is in recovery mode with year-over-year sales rising in many markets, albeit generally below 10-year averages. Analysts have called it a short-term blip caused by consumers rushing to buy to take advantage of pre-approved mortgages signed 120 days ago when long-term rates were lower.

But with the Bank of Canada signaling Wednesday it won’t be raising rates — its neutral stance could even mean lower rates — consumers can safely slide back into variable mortgages tied to prime which tracks the central bank rate.

The short-term rate option and the possibility long-term rates will follow has people worried the market may be recovering too fast for the taste of Ottawa, leaving Finance Minister Jim Flaherty with no choice but to tighten lending rules again.

“It’s possible interest rates will go down,” said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal, adding there’s a huge amount of mortgage debt already in the pipeline that was created when people took advantage of rates they were pre-approved for in the summer. “I’ve seen what is in the pipeline in mortgage activity and you won’t believe the numbers when it is official.”

With no panic to buy, the question is whether people will be encouraged to continue to take on more debt or slow down their spending if the economy slows?

“If we don’t get the softness we are expecting [in housing], quite frankly I think they are already talking about more restrictions,” said Mr. Tal, adding that would be the only option to slow the housing market if Ottawa is reluctant to raise rates.

Kelvin Mangaroo, president of RateSupermarket.ca, says long-term mortgage rates have so far not followed recent reductions in bonds yields, making the variable rate look all the more attractive.

He says the lowest variable rate mortgages on a five-year term is now 2.4% which compares with 3.34% for a five-year fixed closed mortgage. The major banks are still offering 3.89% for a five-year fixed rate closed mortgage.

“The rule of thumb is people start looking at variable when there is a one percentage point spread between five-year variable and five-year fixed,” said Mr. Mangaroo. “We might have more people looking variable with the latest Bank of Canada news.”

Most of the banks and Ottawa have taken great pains to get people to lock in the mortgage rate so they won’t be vulnerable to a spike in interest rates. Changes to mortgage rules even allow you to borrow more, as long as you lock in for five years or longer.

York University Prof. Moshe Milevsky said historically there is usually a much larger gap between long-tern rates and short-term rates which were almost the same earlier this year. He’s not sure people will flock to variable immediately.

“It’s not as much demand side with the consumer deciding. The banks can push aggressively on variable. Sometimes it’s about how the mortgage broker is compensated. There are two sides to the transaction. The consumer is educated when they make the decision,” he says.

While Mr. Milevsky is hesitant to make any prediction on the housing market because so many people have been so wrong for so long, he does have a suggestion for anybody worried about what type of mortgage to take out today.

“I continue to marvel at why people go all fixed or all variable,” says the professor, adding while banks don’t promote the option, you can ask that half your mortgage be long-term and half be short-term. “If I was consulting the banks, and I’m not, their advertisement campaign should be “hedge your mortgage debt, do both’.”

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, thinks it’s reasonable to believe people will move back to variable but probably not enough to cause concern about the housing market.

“Look across the country and many regions are not Toronto,” said Mr. Soper, who cautions government policy should not be based solely on the hot real estate market in Canada’s largest city.

Source: Garry Marr, Financial Post

The short answer is ‘not yet’.

Just announced today is that the Bank of Canada is holding its main interest rate at one per cent, where it has been since September 2010.

Economists widely expect the central bank to hold its trendsetting rate steady well into next year, so Wednesday’s announcement came as no surprise.

“The bank did precisely what was expected of them today: nothing,” BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to investors.

“If anything, the tone of the statement was slightly more dovish, noting the more moderate global backdrop, less certainty on the output gap and still relatively relaxed on the household debt front.

“The bottom line is that we are still looking at a very long period of inactivity by the bank, and may well be talking about four years of unchanged rates a year from now.”

That wait-and-see approach would appear to suit Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz just fine. He has been on the job since early June and shows no sign of breaking from the monetary policies of his predecessor, Mark Carney, who took up a new post this summer as head of the Bank of England.

“Add it all up and this is a central bank that believes that growth will pick up in 2014 and that will eventually require higher rates, but which is happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for substantial proof such an acceleration is underway before raising rates,” CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said in an investors’ note.

“We still look for the first hike in early 2015, with some risk of a move late in 2014 if there are upside surprises to our forecast.”

In the explanatory note to Wednesday’s announcement, the Bank of Canada said it intends no changes as long as considerable slack remains in the economy, inflation remains muted and household finances continue to improve.

Sluggish exports and business investment have slowed the country’s economic growth, the bank said.

“Uncertain global economic conditions appear to be delaying the anticipated rotation of demand in Canada towards exports and investment.”

To underscore that point, new figures Wednesday from Statistics Canada showed the country’s exports fell to $39.2 billion in July, down 0.6 per cent from the month before.

At the same time, imports grew slightly, to push the country’s merchandise trade deficit with the world to $931 million in July from $460 million in June.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada noted the housing sector has been slightly stronger than anticipated, while household credit has continued to slow and mortgage interest rates are higher, the bank added, all of which point to “a continued constructive evolution of household imbalances.”

The bank also said the global economy has less momentum than anticipated.

“In Europe, there are early signs of a recovery and Japan’s situation remains promising,” it said.

“In a number of emerging market economies, financial volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to growth prospects, although China continues to grow at a solid pace.”

While commodity prices have been relatively stable, the bank says geopolitical tensions — which presumably include the bloody conflict in Syria and the continued unrest in Egypt — are raising the global price of oil.

The bank took a slightly dimmer view than it has previously of short-term economic growth in the United States, said RBC assistant chief economist Dawn Desjardins.

“While today’s statement incorporated a slightly less optimistic view of the near-term outlook for U.S. growth and acknowledged that in turn, a firming in Canadian export and business investment was evolving slower than projected, the main thresholds required for the bank to start to reduce the amount of stimulus remained intact,” she wrote in an investors’ note.

The bank’s next rate announcement is scheduled for Oct. 23.

Source: Steve Rennie, The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada is keeping its trendsetting interest rate anchored at one per cent for the remainder of the year and sending a message that it still believes the cost of borrowing in Canada will go up at some point in the future.

The decision by the central bank’s policy setting panel was in line with the expectations of markets and economists, who had given only low odds to governor Mark Carney removing a mild bias towards raising rates sometime.

Canada’s dollar gained strength after the announcement. It was up 0.19 of a cent to 100.7 cents US — slightly higher than just prior to the central bank’s announcement.

The bank’s statement Tuesday suggests it is looking through the disappointing third quarter result as a temporary aberration.

Last week, Statistics Canada reported the country’s gross domestic product output had slowed to 0.6 per cent — about half what the bank had predicted in October, and the weakest result in more than a year.

The bank’s statement Tuesday said that “economic activity in the third quarter was weak, owing in part to transitory disruptions in the energy sector” — referring to some maintenance shutdowns.

“Although underlying momentum appears slightly softer than previously anticipated, the pace of economic growth is expected to pick up through 2013. The expansion is expected to be driven mainly by growth in consumption and business investment, reflecting very stimulative domestic financial conditions.”

Tying improved conditions to 2013 suggests governor Carney, who has announced his intention to step down in June to take charge of the Bank of England, now realizes the economy is unlikely to live up to his 2.5 per cent hopes in the current fourth quarter as well.

In a bit of a surprise, Carney says he is not as yet convinced the recent cooling in housing activity in Canada, and slowdown in credit accumulation, represents a fundamental shift.

On Monday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he was pleased housing was moderating and that Canadians were starting to pay off debt, a shift in the credit and mortgage market he attributed in part to his decision to tighten borrowing rules in July.

Carney says, however: “It is too early … to determine whether the moderation in housing activity and credit will be sustained.”

That is likely because the bank expects to keep interest rates, and as a result borrowing costs, at historic lows for likely another year.

Part of what has Carney in a holding pattern, both in terms of rates and his language, is that he does not know the outcome of the so-called fiscal cliff negotiations in Washington. Canadian policy-makers say if no deal is reached in the next month to extend tax cuts and program spending, the U.S. economy could take a battering amounting to about four percentage GDP points next year, sufficient to send it and likely Canada back into recession.

As it is, Carney said the uncertainty over whether Washington will be able to avoid figuratively going over the cliff is already impacting the economy.

Otherwise, not much has changed in the past month or so, the bank says. Europe is still in recession, the U.S. is recovering but at a gradual pace and Chinese growth appears to be stabilizing. If there is good news for Canada in all this, it’s that commodity prices have remained elevated, which helps the country’s terms of trade.

For many economists, those conditions might warrant the central bank jettisoning its pretence that it will raise rates “over time,” and acknowledge a rate cut may equally be in the offing in the next year or so.

But Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said in a note Tuesday morning that Carney will want to await the results of the fiscal cliff talks in Washington, and is holding his fire — if he has any to shoot — until the announcement date on Jan. 23 when he knows better the situation.

Tuesday’s decision was the 18th consecutive time Carney has kept the policy rate at one per cent, comprising over two years, the longest stretch of stability since the 1950s.

Source: Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

Good news for homeowners and buyers as the CIBC says Canadians may enjoy historically low interest rates into 2014.

The bank released its new outlook for the global and Canadian economies, and all indicators point to weakening conditions and rising risks.

It says Canada’s economy will barely keep its head above water with growth rates of 2.1 per cent this year and next year, after growing 2.4 in 2011 and over three per cent in 2010.

The main reason, the bank says, is that the global economy will continue to slow, down to three per cent this year, the slowest pace of expansion since the recession.

As well, Canadian consumers are tapped out and governments are spending less.

With this backdrop the Bank of Canada will find it difficult to raise interest rates, says the CIBC, predicting it may wait until U.S. growth picks up sometime in 2014.

Source: The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada on Tuesday said it was keeping its trend-setting interest rate on hold and acknowledged risks from the European crisis are leading to a “a sharp deterioration” in global financial conditions.

The central bank kept its lending rate at a near-historic low of 1% – where it has been since September 2010 – and pointed to weaker expectations for global economic growth.

“Some of the risks around the European crisis are materializing and risks remain skewed to the downside. This is leading to a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions,” the bank said in its statement accompanying the rate decision.

“The outlook for global economic growth has weakened in recent weeks.”

Many economists have pulled back on their forecasts for a rate increase before the end of the year, while others are now speculating rates could actually come down if global uncertainty continues.

Tuesday’s rate decision comes as Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is to join his Group of Seven counterparts on a conference call to discuss Europe’s debt crisis and the fallout within the region’s banking sector. Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney was also expected to take part in the talks, along with other G7 central bankers.

“The eurozone is slowing and has now affected Germany and France, the so-far more resilient economies in the eurozone,” Otto Waser, chief investment officer at Research & Asset Management AG in Zurich, told Bloomberg Television.

“We see some policy response emerging. We’re going to be talking more rescue measures in Europe. I don’t think that’s going to really stabilize the economies.”

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank will meet to decide on its key interest rate, ahead of critical meeting of European leaders on June 28 and 29 called to discuss the debt and banking crisis.

In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter of this year was just 1.9%, on an annualized basis, matching the fourth-quarter increase, as consumer spending slowed to a three-year low.

On a monthly basis, gross domestic product edged up 0.1% in March from February.

The Bank of Canada had forecast growth in the first three months of 2012 at 2.5%.

“While the U.S. economy continues to expand at a modest pace, economic activity in emerging-market economies is slowing a bit faster and a bit more broadly than had been expected,” the bank said Tuesday.

“More modest global momentum and heightened financial risk aversion have reduced commodity prices.”

The central bank acknowledged that growth was “slightly slower than expected” in the first quarter, “underlying economic momentum appears largely consistent with expectations.”

“In particular, housing activity has been stronger than expected, and households continue to add to their debt burden in an environment of modest income growth.”

However, the bank slightly rephrased its view of excess capacity in the economy, characterizing it as “a small degree,” rather than the “somewhat smaller” than anticipated wording in its previous rate statement.

“To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary stimulus may become appropriate.”

Source: Gordon Isfeld, Financial Post