B.C. home prices are headed south this year before rising slightly in 2013, according to a quarterly forecast by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The forecast average drop of four per cent – the biggest decline in the country and far steeper than the 1.1-per-cent forecast drop nationally – will bring the average price of a residential B.C. property down to $539,100 from $561,300 in 2011.

However, the average price is expected to rise 0.5 per cent to $541,800 in 2013.

Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said the main reason for B.C.’s forecast price decline is because multi-million-dollar sales activity in West Vancouver, Vancouver’s westside and Richmond in early 2011 caused both the provincial and national average prices to temporarily spike, a phenomenon that’s not expected to repeat itself this year.

“It reflects what happened by way of the average price increase in Vancouver,” he said. “There was a spike in high-end activity [and] it skewed the average price higher temporarily.

“We don’t expect it to happen this year.”

As a result, the report said, while prices will likely hold steady near current levels, the national average price is forecast to dip by 1.1 per cent in 2012 to $359,100. Prices are expected to rise modestly in 2013, with the national average inching upward 0.9 per cent to $362,300 at the national level.

According to the report, home resales are expected to rise by 0.3 per cent this year in Canada, with low interest rates continuing to support the market.

For B.C., home resales are expected to drop by 1.9 per cent, before rising slightly in 2013.

National sales are forecast to reach 458,800 units in 2012, while in B.C. sales are expected to total 75,300.

“Rising demand in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia is expected to offset softer activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick,” CREA said.

In 2013, CREA said, sales are expected to ease back to 457,200 units, with modest gains in all provinces except Ontario “as economic and job growth picks up later this year and builds into 2013.”

“Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining,” added Klump.

“So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices. Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer will doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating.”

Source: Brian Morton, Vancouver Sun

Home resales are expected to rise by 0.3% this year in Canada, with low interest rates continuing to support the market, the Canadian Real Estate Association said today.

National sales are forecast to reach 458,800 units in 2012, up from 457,305 in the previous year. “Rising demand in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia, is expected to offset softer activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick,” CREA said.

In 2013, sales are expected ease back to 457,200 units, with modest gains in all provinces except Ontario “as economic and job growth picks up later this year and builds into 2013,” it said.

Meanwhile, the national average price is likely to decline by 1.1% this year to $359,100, followed by a slight increase of 0.9% to $362,300 in 2013.

“Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices. Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer will doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating.”

Source: Financial Post

Metro Vancouver’s real estate market remains in stable territory with a pre-spring hike in sales, according to reports released Friday.

“With a sales-to-active-listings ratio of over 18 per cent, we see fairly balanced conditions in our marketplace as we move into the traditionally busier spring season,” Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president Rosario Setticasi said in a statement.

The REBGV monthly report said that sales reached 2,545 in February, a 61.4-per-cent increase over the 1,577 sales in January and a decline of 17.8-per-cent drop from the 3,097 sales in February 2011.

February sales in Metro Vancouver were the third lowest February total in the region since 2002, although just 151 sales below the 10-year average.

New listings totalled 5,552 in February, a 2.5-per-cent decline compared to February 2011, and a 3.5-per-cent decline compared to January 2012.

The report concluded that the benchmark price for all residential properties was $670,900 in February, up six per cent compared to February 2011 and up 0.9 per cent compared to January 2012.

The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1.04 million, while the price of apartments increased 2.8 per cent from February 2011 to $373,000. The price of a townhome unit increased 0.7 per cent over the same period to $473,000.

Meanwhile, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 1,269 sales in February, an increase of 59 per cent compared to January and a one-per-cent decrease from the 1,279 sales in February of 2011.

The board also received 2,846 new listings in February, a three-per-cent increase from January and a six-per-cent drop from last February’s 3,038.

The new listings take the total number of active listings to 9,037, an increase of four per cent over February 2011.

“Although our market has picked up, it’s still favouring buyers,” board president Scott Olson said in a statement, adding that the seasonal increase in sales was not as robust as in previous years. “In terms of our clients, we’re seeing more caution and deliberation when house hunting.”

The benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley in February was about $569,000, an increase of 8.3 per cent compared to $525,000 last year. Townhouse prices increased two per cent in the year, to $312,000 in February 2012, while the benchmark price of apartments increased 0.6 per cent to $202,000.

Source: Brian Morton, Vancouver Sun