The Conference Board isn’t buying the notion that Canada’s housing market will suddenly crumble, saying the most likely outlook is for a modest decline nationally and in some specific markets.

The Ottawa-based think-tank argues in a comprehensive new look at real estate in Canada that the conditions for a crash simply don’t exist, despite numerous reports that the market is overbuilt and overvalued.

Rather, the report argues that with the possible exception of Toronto, housing starts the past three years have been roughly in line with the 20-year average.

Even in Toronto, there is only a “borderline” case that it could be overbuilt.

“At this point in the housing cycle, there is a risk that Canadian housing prices in some market segments are due for a modest correction,” the report states.

“Nevertheless, we believe that continued population growth, additional employment gains and modest mortgage rate increases will limit potential price declines in 2014 and 2015.”

There is a case for more dramatic price adjustment further out if higher mortgage rates start crimping affordability, the Conference Board says, but even then it is likely to be a soft rather than a hard landing.

In recent years, some economists and international organizations such as the OECD, the IMF, Deutsche Bank and The Economist magazine have described Canada’s housing market in stark terms, characterizing it as among the priciest in the world based on historical averages and other metrics.

But the consensus of economists within Canada has tended to be more subdued. Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association also predicted a slowdown as mortgage rates start edging up later in the year, but it still saw the market overall growing in 2014 and 2015.

The Conference Board says fears of a housing bubble about to burst in Canada are exaggerated.

It says some of the evidence cited by correction hawks, including comparing home prices as a multiple of rental costs, don’t take into account historically-low mortgage rates that keeps affordability steady. Citing Toronto, it notes that in 2013 mortgage payments consumed less than 20 per cent of average household income, the same as in 1993.

“Mortgage costs, not just house prices, are the principal deciding factor for potential homebuyers,” says Robin Wiebe, the think-tank’s senior economist.

Even when mortgage rates do start rising, the Conference Board believes it will happen gradually and over an extended period. For instance, it forecasts rates with only a gain of 200 basis points — two percentage points — by 2017 or 2018.

But at current low rates, the typical homeowner on a posted five-year rate will have paid down $42,104 principal on a $100,000 in mortgage debt, so affordability won’t be seriously impacted once it comes time to renew at a higher rate.

The Conference Board provides an outlook on six major cities:

— Vancouver: Moved back into balance last spring. Recent price gains will give way to slower advances in 2014.

— Calgary: A approaching sellers’ conditions, noting strong price gains last year.

— Edmonton: Balanced, with brisk resale and price growth activity last year.

— Toronto: Balanced with healthy price growth. A major correction is difficult to see given solid employment and population growth.

— Ottawa: Market cooling due to falling employment from the government sector, flatter sales and tempered prices.

— Montreal: Flirting with buyer’s market conditions with sales and average prices having dropped somewhat last year.

Source: Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

The world’s wealthiest may look at expanding their real estate portfolio as they may use sub-orbital space travel to reduce travel time, believes Knight Frank.

More than 70 wealthy individuals, with a combined wealth of over $200 billion, are investing in space research projects, which includes asteroid mining to sub-orbital space travel, the global real estate consultancy said ahead of the March 5 release of its Wealth Report 2014.

“By travelling outside the Earth’s atmosphere, gravitational forces will allow spacecraft to travel at over 4,000 miles per hour, so breakfast in Mayfair could easily be followed by lunch overlooking Sydney Opera House,” says Knight Frank’s Head of Research Liam Bailey.

The consultancy believes that space travel will have impact on global luxury property markets, with ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWIs) will grow their luxury property portfolio.

Though the Wealth Report’s Global Cities Survey confirms, London currently wins over New York as a global wealth hub because it is more convenient for African, Middle Eastern, Russian and European UHNWIs.

But this convenience premium could be noticeably reduced if Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic succeeds in making his vision for sub-orbital travel a reality.

Transcontinental travel – London to Sydney – a distance of 10,553 miles will be completed in 2.2 hours from the current 21 hours. Dubai to Vancouver, a distance of 7285 miles that currently takes a flight time of 14.5 hours, will be cut short to just 1.5 hours, says Knight Frank.

Talking to The Wealth Report, entrepreneur Richard Branson said: “New commercial space will be one of the most exciting investment sectors in the next 20 years, driven by the initial successes of companies like Virgin Galactic.

“There is already some good evidence that the leading players are receiving high levels of interest from the mainstream investment community and attracting valuations that reflect confidence in future growth and opportunity.”

In 2013, Virgin Galactic spokesperson told Emirates 24|7 that it expects thousands will take the suborbital spaceflight from Abu Dhabi.

“If approved, Virgin Galactic intends for the UAE spaceport to be the first international commercial spaceport, contingent on US regulatory approvals. The UAE spaceport will be a very desirable destination attracting people from all over the world to experience the unique view of earth from above the UAE,” a spokesperson said.

Currently, over 600 people from more than 50 countries have placed reservations. Celebs including Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt and Ashton Kutcher are among those said to have bought $200,000 tickets.

Ticket price will play a critical role in defining the impact on real estate.

“If this is a technology for billionaires only, then property market disruption might be limited to a wider choice of global lunch options. But if the price drops to allow the merely very wealthy to access sub-orbital flights, then every assumption about current property prices will have to be reconsidered,” Bailey said.

Knight Frank has rated Dubai among the most sought after real estate destination in the world. In 2013, over 140 foreign nationalities, which includes Americans, Canadians and Europeans, invested Dh116 billion in the Dubai real estate market.

Source: Parag Deulgaonkar, Emirates 24/7 News

The average cost of a Canadian home hit a record high of $388,553 in January. This price is 9.5 per cent higher than last year. The average cost of a home in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver rose to $526,528 and $606,800. Over the last ten years Canadian real estate prices have soared 84 per cent. With prices sky-high in some cities, the following tactics could help make buying your first home just a little bit easer.

Get a mortgage pre-approval before you start house hunting.

Before you start visiting open houses or checking out properties with a real estate agent, it’s important to visit your bank to see which houses you can afford. This ensures you’re shopping within the correct price range. Many people will need to take out a mortgage to buy property, but the amount you are eligible for is based on multiple factors including credit rating, household income and monthly expenses. Before you begin property hunting, visit a financial institution. This way you’re able to hold a competitive rate for between 30 to 120 days.

Buy a home with your parents or a buddy.

Young adults are increasingly relying on help from family members to buy a home. About 27 per cent now expect it. In a hot housing market, real estate agents have seen ‘gift letters,’ which detail the money a family member will contribute to assist them with mortgage approval, or simply thousands of dollars in hard cash. If a family member decides to loan the money rather than give it as a gift, parents should establish payment requirements in a legal document to ensure that everyone is satisfied.

Buy a home in a more affordable city.

House prices in Vancouver and Toronto are climbing to unaffordable levels for many people, but this doesn’t mean you have to live in these cities. Near Toronto, the housing markets in Ajax, Brampton, Milton and Mississauga are heating up. These are popular placees to buy a bigger lot, but potential homebuyers need to account for other costs (like gas and car insurance), as well as commuting times should their work remain in Toronto.

Buy a home that you can use as an income property.

You could buy a property you can live in but also split into a rental unit. The best outcome is if your renter’s payment covers your mortgage costs, but there are some important points to consider. First, you need to determine how comfortable you are living in close proximity with your tenants. For example, are you comfortable having a boarder live down the hall, or would you prefer to live on separate floors and use different entrances? Many people would prefer a semi-detached home with a separate entrance, bathroom and kitchen. If these don’t figure in the property you’re eyeing, you’ll need to budget for renovation costs.

Negotiate your house price and insurance.

Some people don’t feel comfortable negotiating, but it can save you a lot of money. First, the more information the better. Research the value of other houses. Chances are an identical house has been sold in the neighbourhood and you should check that property’s value against the one you’re considering. Understand why the seller is selling and shape your bid towards his or her plans. Also, understand that while the size of your bid is important, it isn’t always the deciding factor because some homeowners care how the new owner will treat the property.

When you purchase insurance, there are three types to consider: basic, standard and comprehensive. An independent broker can help you get the best rate and if you bundle your auto and home insurance with the same company you could receive up to a 15 per cent discount.

Tap into your RRSP for first-time home buyers.

First-time homebuyers can withdraw $25,000 from their RRSP as a part of the federal government’s homebuyers plan. If you’re buying a home with a partner, you can both take out $25,000 from your individual plans. If this equals a 20 per cent down payment, you can avoid mortgage default insurance, which tacks on several more thousands of dollars to your mortgage. If you do tap your RRSP, there is a tax loophole that lets you receive up to $20,000 in tax refunds. But one drawback with using your RRSP is that you must repay the amount you withdraw within 15 years or you will face a penalty based on your personal income tax rate.

Buy a smaller space.

One in eight households lives in a condominium. With the gap between the price of a house and a condo hitting record highs in Toronto, more families are becoming condo dwellers. The average size of a home in Canada was 2,300 square feet during the mid-2000’s. But that number has now dropped to 1,900 square feet and will probably keep shrinking. The size of your family will determine the size of your home. While you may have grown up in a single detached home with a backyard, in housing markets such as Vancouver and Toronto it’s important to manage your expectations.

Budget for your closing costs.

Tapping into a mortgage offers homeowners leeway in paying off their property, but along with your down payment there are other upfront closing costs you need to budget for. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation suggests that you set aside an additional 1.5 to 4 per cent of your property’s purchase price to account for closing costs. Closing costs include a land survey that ranges from $1,000 to $2,000, an independent home inspection costing from $350 to $600, legal fees for a title search and paperwork that run to about $1,000, and a land transfer tax that varies based on your city and GST/HST.

Source: Josephine Lim, MSN Money

Canada’s luxury housing markets are booming. Like, ridiculously booming, at least in some places.

According to a recent RE/MAX report, luxury home sales in Toronto (defined as $1.5 million plus) jumped 18 per cent in 2013, while Vancouver saw luxury ($2 million plus) home sales jump 38 per cent and luxury condo sales jump 18 per cent.

But with average detached home prices approaching $900,000 in Toronto and $1 million in Vancouver, a $1.5-million house in Toronto or a $2-million house in Vancouver might not actually be “luxury” properties.

Sotheby’s International Realty, in a report earlier this year, hinted at what may be happening.

“As the average cost of a single family home in Canada rises, the gap between conventional housing costs and the [luxury] threshold grows closer,” the Sotheby’s report says.

So sales of luxury homes are being driven up, apparently, by the fact that prices of non-luxury homes are now entering “luxury” territory. Put another way, normal suburban homes are now selling at rich people’s prices. Put yet another way, middle class isn’t going to buy you much of a house going forward in the country’s most expensive markets.

But at the top end of the market, the houses really are “luxury” — and some of them are pretty over-the-top. Check out this list of the most expensive houses for sale in Canada, by province.

Source: The Huffington Post Canada

The five-year fixed mortgage at an advertised rate below three per cent has returned to Canada for the first time since last year.

Meridian Credit Union, the largest credit union in Ontario, announced this week it had lowered its benchmark five-year fixed-rate mortgage to 2.99 per cent.

According to market surveys carried out by RateSpy.com and Cannex.com, that is the lowest advertised rate for the popular mortgage term in Canada.

Meridian’s mortgage special is available just in Ontario, but it appears to have few other restrictions.

Earlier this month, MortgageBrokerNews.ca reported that two mortgage brokers — Verico Butler and Advent Mortgage Services — were also offering 2.99 per cent five-year fixed mortgages.

Brokers are often able to get mortgage rates for their clients that are lower than what big lenders offer. But sometimes, super-cheap mortgages have severe restrictions on such things as rate holds and prepayment privileges.

Fixed mortgage rates have been creeping down in the last month at most lenders as Canadian bond yields have been falling. Fixed mortgage rates tend to track bond yields.

The yield on Canada’s five-year government bonds has fallen 33 basis points so far this year to 1.62 per cent.

Last year, some big banks attracted the ire of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty for aggressively pushing 2.99 per cent five-year mortgages. He was worried that cheap financing would stoke a housing market that some economists were calling overheated and overvalued.

Since credit unions are provincially regulated, Flaherty has no formal power to pressure Meridian over its current promotion.

Source: CBC News

Almost a quarter of Canadians say they are planning on using their homes as their primary source of income once they are out of the workforce, according to a survey from Sun Life Financial.

“It’s not something we would recommend per se, it is a bit of a surprise,” says Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer of Sun Life Global Investments, about the retirement strategy being considered by 24% of Canadians. “People should be counting on their retirement savings and not really looking at their home. A home is something you can have and carry forward with you.”

Any retirement strategy involving accessing the equity of the home could mean selling it or at the very least getting a new mortgage on the property or a reverse mortgage.

Mr. Adatia thinks the downturn in the stock market in 2008 may have affected people’s retirement plans and has them turning to their homes to pick up the slack.

Rising home values have helped many Canadians approaching retirement feel like they have created a pretty big nest egg. The Canadian Real Estate Association said last month the average home in the country sold for $388,553 in January, a new high and a 9.5% increase from a year earlier.

On average, Canadians expect 10% of their retirement income to come from their home. Government pension plans on average are expected to supply 30% of retirement income, 27% is to come from personal savings, 23% from employer plans, 5% from inheritance and 6% from what is called other sources.

Even with their optimism over accessing their home equity, only 28% of Canadians expected to be retired by 66. Another 56% of Canadians expect to work past retirement age with 65% of those people saying they will need to.

“The average expected retirement age in Canada has hit its lowest level in four years – it’s 66 this year down from a high of age 69 in 2011,” said Kevin Dougherty, president of Sun Life Financial Canada. “With people living longer and more Canadians expecting to retire sooner, it’s important to look at what savings you will need to be fully prepared.”

Mr. Adatia thinks a retirement plan involving selling your home might work for people who bought a few years ago, it might not work for people buying today.

“I know my own parents bought their home 30 years ago and at an extremely dirt cheap price,” he said, adding the older people can afford to absorb a downtown in the market if it happens. “If you’re 40 and bought your home five years ago, you can’t afford that hit.”

Sun Life’s view on real estate is the market is inflated and there might be a significant decline in prices, making renting a viable option. The company says homes are selling for on average six times personal income, compared to a historical average of four times.

“Do you want to overextend yourself at the peak of the market?” said Mr. Adatia.

The survey was conducted by Ipsos Reid between Nov. 12 to Nov. 20 and is considered accurate to within two percentage points.

Source: Garry Marr, Financial Post

Canadian home prices are likely about 10 percent overvalued given expectations for rising interest rates, TD Bank said in a report yesterday.

However, the bank also noted the overvaluation in markets such as Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa is likely more significant than in others across the country.

“These markets will likely feel the pinch from modestly higher interest rates over the next two years more so than others,” TD economist Diana Petramala wrote in the report.

She noted Montreal, Quebec City and Ottawa have been flooded with an overhang of inventory of unsold condos.

“Home prices weakened in the second half of 2013 as a result and we expect that softness to persist in 2014,” Petramala said. “Toronto is poised to follow their lead, as the number of new condos scheduled to be completed in 2014 and 2015 is elevated relative to history.”

The Canadian market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years. Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.

“Our forecast is consistent with this imbalance unwinding gradually over the next few years through a combination of moderate income growth and a modest home price correction,” Petramala wrote.

“While 2014 is likely to see stable prices on average, prices are expected to edge down by two percent in 2015-16 as the over-building challenge increasingly weighs on the market and as borrowing costs grind higher.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported recently that sales through its multiple listings service totalled 457,893 homes for 2013, up eight-tenths of a per cent from 2012.

The national average price for homes sold in December was $389,119, up 10.4 per cent from the end of 2012. Excluding Greater Vancouver and the Toronto region, the year-over-year increase was 4.6 per cent.

The TD report noted that overvaluation can be measured in several different ways with vastly different results.

“The home price-to-rent ratio points to an over-valuation of 60 percent. However, this measure is skewed by rent controls. It is difficult to know whether prices are too high, or if its rents that are too low,” TD said.

Another indicator, the home price-to-income ratio suggested overvaluation as high as 30 percent, but TD said that depends on how income is defined and what is included.

“Our preferred index of assessing housing overvaluation is affordability, the percent of income an average household must devote to mortgage payments on an average priced home with a conventional mortgage,” the report said.

“While interest rates are not likely to return to their historical norms, the current low level of interest rates is also not sustainable. We expect a modest increase in interest rates.”

Source: Canadian Press

It’s the one room in the house where everyone gathers every day. As the most popular spot in every home, why not make your kitchen the most attractive and inviting room, too? Here are some hot trends in kitchen decor:

The showcase kitchen

Without a doubt, today’s kitchen is much more than a place to prepare food. With the continued emphasis on lifestyle and food, the kitchen is more of a draw than ever. Contemporary design capitalizes on this trend with lots of exciting elements to make the kitchen more of a living space.

Take lighting. Out are those little glass pendants suspended over an island. In are sizeable lighting fixtures that make a splash in the middle of the room. A good example is the drum pendant light fixture now taking center stage in kitchen design centers and magazines. Simply changing your main fixture to one that’s brighter and more prominent may be all it takes to give your kitchen a welcome makeover.

Specialty-focused

Kitchens continue to be focused on features like sustainability, cooking options and ease of use. Trends that favor energy savings are a key development. Touchless faucets save on water and energy-stingy appliances can trim electric bills.

Integrated appliances are another important development. Topping the lists are appliances integrated into the cabinetry, making your kitchen more livable with their furniture-like appearance. Drawer appliances are part of the same trend. Warming drawers have risen in popularity in the past few years, and refrigerated drawers to hold produce or drinks are finding their way into more kitchens. We could even see microwave and dishwashing drawers soon. Such appliances will become more popular due to their ease of use and accessibility.

Countertop shift

While granite and marble remain the standard-bearers, we’ll see more engineered countertops take hold, such as quartz and glass. These surfaces sport an attractive natural look, emphasize sustainability and are easy-care.

Despite granite’s reign as the ultimate countertop material, it’s not easy to keep looking good. The high polishes on granite mean stains, smears and cleaning marks from sponges show up easily. Matte and less-polished finishes will become more popular as homeowners weary of all that rubbing.

Shift to neutral

Wild colors are taking a back seat to the high-contrast black-and-white kitchens rising in popularity. The clean backdrop of black and white makes food and accent colors pop, and the look is timeless. Kitchens will also shift into quiet mode as the trend toward neutral colors continues in other parts of the house. Countertops and cabinets in similar color tones are also trending for their ability to look unified, neat and relaxing.

Source: Kathryn Weber, Tribune Content Agency

The $25,000 Ottawa allows you take out of your retirement fund to buy your first home sure doesn’t go as far as it used to.

Under the home buyers’ plan, Canadians can take $25,000 out of their registered retirement savings plan and pay it back over the next 15 years without incurring any penalty. For a couple that means $50,000.

But the dollar amount has been stuck at $25,000 since 1999 while house prices have continued to escalate. At $50,000, you’re barely making the minimum downpayment if you are buying a home in Vancouver with a mortgage backed by the government.

The Canadian Real Estate Association says the average price of a home will climb to $391,000 next year, meaning that $50,000 is less than 13% and not enough to avoid costly mortgage default insurance.

“I don’t know how effective the plan is now, so I’m not sure what would happen, if you increase the amount,” says Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada.

It’s not just the amount. The tax-free savings account is now just as an effective savings vehicle. As of 2014, Canadians were allowed to contribute $31,000 and the amount increases every year. You can also withdraw money from a TFSA and put it an equal amount back later.

“I think you almost need a combination of the two plans together to fund that kind of investment,” said Mr. Lawby, about buying a house. “It depends on where you live in Canada.”

The home buyers’ plan was launched with a $20,000 withdrawal limit and it jumped to $25,000 in 2009.

One of the arguments against increasing the limit is it will encourage young Canadians to rob their retirement savings to buy a first home. Paying the money back over 15 years — there are significant penalties if you don’t — means you might not have the money to make current contributions.

Vince Gaetano, a principal of monstermortgage.ca, says the home buyers’ program is mostly being used by people as a tax loophole.

“This is the most popular time of the year to do it. They manipulate the system to deliver a tax return on the downpayment they will [already be] making on their purchase,” he says.

If you know you are buying your first home in the next 90 days, you make a $25,000 contribution or $50,000 for two people. That means a big refund in April. You then withdraw the $25,000 or $50,000 to pay for that initial home.

“Most people have the RRSP room. If you are buying a house by June and you have the downpayment in cash, you make the contribution to trigger the the refund,” said Mr. Gaetano, noting the $25,000 has to be in the plan for 90 days before you can take it out.

“You can garner $20,000 in refunds,” said Mr. Gaetano, pointing out it will depend on what your marginal tax rate is.

Source: Garry Marr, Financial Post

While condo units are often used as primary homes, they can also be investments or vacation spots. This recent article by Marilyn Wilson in the Ottawa Citizen explores the uses for the extra condo, by which I mean a unit that is not your primary residence, but rather one that has a secondary function.

The Custom Condo

Many people move from larger homes to condos as a way of changing their lifestyles. Perhaps they intend to downsize or simply want to forgo shovelling snow. They may even want to travel more often and keep a condo to make this an easier feat.

Buyers shopping in new developments may choose to purchase two units and combine them to expand their square footage. This is a possible custom upgrade when purchasing a condo in a future development — like opting for granite over linoleum, but on a larger scale.

If you are looking at the penthouse, you can also find out if the developer can increase the size vertically in addition to horizontally by increasing your ceiling height. Such are the advantages of purchasing a pre-construction condo.

The Part-Time Condo

A lot of people choose to move or travel more after their children have left the roost. It’s a given that condo living can make travelling easier, as you may have a concierge to check on your unit and retrieve your mail. You will also not have to clear a front path in absentia. For these reasons, condo living is especially useful if you intend to spend winters in a warmer climate. It enables you to keep a low maintenance space where you can leave your things out and ready for your return.

Of course, someone in this situation can also purchase a time share; however, this necessities storing things when out of town, adding expense and hassle.

Another option is to purchase a room in a condo hotel suite. This means owning a hotel room that you yourself can use, usually for a limited time throughout the year. These are not usually offered as primary residences, but have the added advantage of hotel amenities, such as room service.

Keeping a part-time condo can also be especially useful if you plan on returning to a destination again and again. In a sense, it becomes your “cottage” or second dwelling. For example, I have clients who recently moved abroad but are interested in keeping a condo in Ottawa. This is simply because they know they will return often to visit friends here. This is also a popular choice for people who have children or grandchildren in another city.

When determining if you should purchase a condo as a second residence, consider the costs of hotels and — if you plan to rent a car or bring your own — public parking.

The Investment Condo

Perhaps you are interested in downsizing at a later date or simply want an investment with a monthly payout (through rental income). If so, then the investment condo may be a wise decision for you.

If you intend to move to a certain city but have not spent a ton of time living there as a local, you might consider purchasing a second home there rather than going all out with a pricey and disruptive move. To make a decision this big, you may want to spend time living as a local before you plan your move. Day-to-day life in any city is different from visiting as a tourist. To make this more equitable in the short term, you can rent out the unit by week (as a vacation rental) or with a long-term lease. Naturally, you can also do this with a condo unit closer to home.

One of my friends knows she and her husband will ultimately retire to Toronto. They are from there and one of their children is now enrolled at the University of Toronto. As a result, they decided to forgo paying monthly rent for their son by instead purchasing their dream condo now and having him live there.

Their son is therefore living in a well-built condo in a safe neighbourhood, and his parents have a place to stay when they visit. For this family, purchasing their condo was a way of investing in their future.

Whether your condo is your primary residence or a second home, it can bring you into an easier, more convenient way of living or travelling. Map out the condo scene in Canada and beyond using these creative ways of incorporating the condo lifestyle into your life.