But as Canadians wait for tomorrow’s latest data on house sales and pricing from the the Canadian Real Estate Association, here are some considerations people may use to gauge if or when house prices will tumble.

1. Interest rates

As usual, the biggest threat cited for home prices is how much we pay for the money we borrow.

A more moderate path would give the housing market a chance to adjust. Even if, as expected, our central bank follows the U.S. to higher rates, a lot of uncertainty remains over how fast North American rates will rise.

2. Inflation

The main reason rates could rise suddenly would be that central banks might feel compelled to quell a sudden burst of inflation. So far, inflation has been tame.

Historically, inflation rises and falls in a long cycle and while after the fact economists will tell you why it happened, there are wide differences in opinion over where the cycle is heading next.

While inflation could lead to higher rates, some homeowners may see Canadian property as a long-term inflation hedge.

3. Pent-up demand

In many parts of Canada, not just Vancouver and Toronto, following years of rising prices and bidding wars, housing demand remains strong.

Government policy, including a rule that new buyers must be able to handle interest rate increases, may mean a pent-up demand for housing, including by large numbers of new immigrants, will support prices if incomes begin to catch up.

Even if market conditions begin to change, it may mean house hunters — schooled in a market of ever-rising prices — will take time to adjust to the new reality, leading to a softer landing.

4. Rate of construction

Home building in Canada’s hottest markets remains strong. Toronto’s skyline is still a sea of cranes, and the ground is full of busy holes.

This week the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. revealed that housing starts slowed in March.

The ability of construction companies to keep pace with demand could affect the value of existing homes, with overbuilding leading to falling in prices.

5. Investment properties

On my short Toronto block, two houses sit empty. In the bank of condos out the window by my desk, many balconies show little sign of life and the lights don’t go on at night.

Owning a condo in Vancouver or Toronto over the last decade has been a lucrative investment even without the bother of renting.

According to the CIBC that’s changing. As those stunning returns disappear, as author and financial adviser Hilliard MacBeth has said, people may decide to invest their money elsewhere, accelerating a downturn.

6. Economic health

Potential home buyers may be less inclined to go out on a limb if they think the economy is going bad.

Various economic commentators have warned that a pattern where short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates may be a signal that the current long period of economic growth is heading toward recession.

As with inflation, economies go through cycles. A moderate slowdown, however, could reduce the impact of inflation and thus the need to raise interest rates.

That said, strong economic growth creates jobs and increases the wealth of Canadians, making them better able to cover housing costs.

7. Local differences

Partly due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sabre-rattling over Syria, oil prices seem to be on the way up.

An oil recovery could come to the rescue of home prices in oil-producing areas of Canada, languishing since the 2014 oil price slump.

Interest rates will have an effect on everyone, but whether the price of your house will rise or fall will also depend on where you live or where you want to buy.

Housing prices are regional, and homes in areas that are in demand because the economy is strong or because they are close to services are more likely to hold their value.

Source: Don Pittis, Business reporter, CBC